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Friday, Mar 12, 2010, 5:30 PM CST
Big Ten Tournament - Quarterfinals - Conseco Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN
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Northwestern vs. Purdue/conference tournament live game thread spectacular
by Loretta8 on Mar 12, 2010 11:03 AM CST
in Basketball
61 comments
Despite a smaller than expected turnout yesterday, we're opening up another all day game thread. There a ton of great match-ups all day, of course leading up the NU-Purdue game at 5:30 central. So join us, and if you're a betting man, here are my picks for today's other Big Ten games.
#8 Michigan vs. #1 Ohio State (-9). 11 AM central, ESPN
Michigan couldn't put Iowa away yesterday and let the Hawkeyes hang around for way way too long. Since Ohio State is somewhere between 2 and 500 times better than Iowa, I expect a blowout Buckeye win, although maybe this will be like the Big East with the top seeds losing after getting a bye. As a side note, can someone explain to me why Big East teams getting a double bye is somehow a bad thing for those teams? It's a deep conference and sometimes there are upsets, I can't think of one logical reason why having an extra day off would lead a team to play worse. It's not like Syracuse and Villanova had 2 weeks off; both were in action on Saturday. Makes no sense that some in the media think a double bye hurts a team (I'm looking at you, Adrian Branch).
Pick: Ohio State
#5 Illinois vs. #4 Wisconsin (-8.5), approx. 1:30 central. ESPN
I have to say I am a bit confused by this line, and really want to take Illinois, but the Illini are impossible to figure out. Just when you think they're dead, they pull off an upset, and just when you think they've got an NCAA bid locked down, they do things like scoring 14 in a half vs. Minnesota and collapsing down the stretch vs. Wisconsin. Illinois could win this game by 15 or lose by 25 and neither would really surprise me. While I expect them to complete their late-season collapse with a loss, 8.5 is bit too many to give.
Pick: Illinois
#6 Minnesota vs. #3 Michigan State (-3), approx. 8 PM central, BTN
As I typed the last sentence, I looked the line for the first time and said "Wow!" out loud. I know Chris Allen is suspended for Michigan State, but this line should be at least 4 points higher. When an NIT team is playing a top 15 team on a neutral court, and the top 15 team is only giving 3, that's way too good to pass up.
Pick: Michigan State
Overall record: 45-47-2
Northwestern games: 15-7
61 comments | 0 recs |
Preview: Northwestern vs. Purdue: Can lightning strike twice?
by Loretta8 on Mar 12, 2010 12:16 AM CST
in Basketball
6 comments
Yesterday, Northwestern won their 20th game a season, the first time they've accomplished that feat, and tonight they will go for another first: advancing to the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. Standing in their way are the #6 Purdue Boilermakers, who are looking to defend their conference tournament title and improve their NCAA seeding. Tip-off is at 5:30 central on the Big Ten Network. I can't find info on the announcers, but I'm really hoping it's Gus Johnson and Shon Morris like it was last night on BTN.
Although Purdue has dominated the all time series, Northwestern is actually 8-6 in the last 14 meetings, and has mostly been the better team head to head against very good Boiler teams over the past two years. In 2009, the 'Cats forced 22 Purdue turnovers in the first meeting at home, leading most of the way before choking down the stretch. In the second meeting, NU rallied in the second half for an upset win at Mackey Arena, spoiling Purdue's senior night. And this year, in case you've forgotten, this happened:
It was the biggest win of the season for Northwestern, and their first over a top 10 team at home since beating Magic Johnson and Michigan State back in the late 70's. A few silly NU fans dismissed the win as only being "technically" over a top 10 teams since it was Purdue's 3rd straight loss and knocked them out of the top 10 in the next poll. However, the Boilers immediately turned their season around and have won 12 of 13 games since, including 10 in a row after the NU loss to rise as high as #3 in the country. Unfortunately, they lost first team All-Big Ten forward Robbie Hummel for the season to an ACL injury during the 10th win, then promptly lost at home to Michigan State, a defeat that cost them the outright Big Ten title, although they still managed to share the title with Ohio State and Michigan State.
So how did Northwestern manage to pull off the upset last time?
1) Attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. The 'Cats attempted a season low 11 threes, and attempted 30 free throws, making 26.
2) Dominating on the glass, to the tune of a 42-23 advantage. I have no stats to back this up, but that has to be the biggest rebounding advantage for a Northwestern team in the Bill Carmody era.
3) Holding Purdue to 36% shooting, including 5 for 22 from the 3-point line.
Of those three, the rebounding edge is by far the least likely to be repeated, because it was due largely to Purdue center JaJuan Johnson being limited to 18 minutes thanks to foul trouble. Backup center is a big weakness for the Boilers, as the only option is the over-matched Patrick Bade. In fact, Bade was so ineffective that Matt Painter used a very small lineup for parts of that game, with Robbie Hummel at center along with 4 guards. With Hummel now injured, it is imperative for Purdue to keep Johnson on the court, as they are a small team even with him; without him they will have huge problems on the interior.
Since the last meeting with Northwestern, Painter has made some changes to his rotation, namely relegating Ryne Smith to the bench. To say Smith struggled a bit in Evanston is like saying the Battle of the Little Bighorn was a minor setback for General Custer. In 18 minutes, Smith had 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, and 0 blocks, missed all 6 of his field goal attempts, committed 4 fouls, and played horrendous defense on Drew Crawford down the stretch. if you watch the above video, at around 3:10 Smith just lets Crawford go right by him for a lay-up, just awful.
So Smith is no longer playing many minutes, and instead those are going to point guard Lewis Jackson, who was out with an injury in the last meeting. He's undersized at 5'9", and isn't much of an outside shooter, but he's a solid ball-handler and distributor, and quick enough to keep opponents from driving by him at will. He's joined in the backcourt by John Hart, a sophomore who came out of nowhere against Illinois earlier this year, scoring 14 points off the bench. However, he hasn't scored in double figures since and has shot just 35% from the field, so while he is capable of getting hot, he's not exactly a guy a defense needs to key on.
Instead, Northwestern will have to find a way to slow down All-Big Ten guard E'Twaun Moore. He averages nearly 17 points a game, had 24 in Evanston, and can score either spotting up or creating his own shot off the dribble. Not only that, he has a knack for hitting big shots down the stretch. So the 'Cats will have their hands full.
Another Purdue guard to worry about is senior Keaton Grant, who really struggled for much of the season before coming on strong late. While his scoring and 3-point percentage are both down from his sophomore and junior years, he hit a clutch shot to win a game at Minnesota and hit 5 threes last time out vs Penn State for a season high 17 points. Grant is a much better shooter than his 29% from three stat line would indicate; hopefully he reverts back to his early season form.
Rounding out the guard rotation for Purdue are Chris Kramer and Kelsey Barlow. Kramer is well-known to Big Ten fans as one of the conference's top defenders, and he was recently honored with the defensive player of the year award. On offense, he's not much of a jump shooter, but he is capable of driving to the basket and scoring that way, so you can't totally ignore him. Maybe the most interesting match-up tomorrow will be Kramer on John Shurna. Painter is going with a 4-guard lineup with Hummel out, so I assume he'll put his best defender on NU's best scorer. Kramer is very strong and quick laterally, but he's giving up 5 inches, so Shurna should be able to post Kramer up like he does at 2:20 of the above video. For most of that game, Shurna was being hounded and completely shut down by Hummel, so I'm sure he'll be happy not to have to face Hummel again. As for Barlow, he's an athletic 6'5" freshman who has some promise but struggles with turnovers.
I am curious as to what defense Northwestern comes out in tonight. In the first meeting they played almost entirely match-up zone, and did a nice job of keeping Purdue on the perimeter. Of course, they were greatly aided by Johnson being on the bench for over half the game. There is no one on the 'Cats roster who can guard him one and one, so the best bet would be to double-team him in the post and force Purdue to win with outside shooting. That's not exactly an exciting alternative, but it beats Johnson dominating inside.
On offense, taking care of the ball will be key, as Northwestern turned it over 17 times in the first meeting. Purdue plays a very aggressive style of man to man defense, so the best bet would be to take advantage of Boiler defenders overplaying the passing lanes and beat them with backdoor cuts. I'd also like to see Northwestern attack the offensive glass, hopefully taking advantage of Purdue's small lineups. In his post-game press conference, Bill Carmody blamed the Conseco Field House rims for his team's poor shooting performance vs. Indiana; personally I'm not buying it;. Jump shots are going to have to fall for Northwestern to have any chance of pulling the upset.
In the last two meetings between these teams, I didn't think the 'Cats had much chance to beat Purdue. Last season, the Boilers really struggled in Evanston before escaping with a win, so you had to think they'd bounce back strong at home, yet Northwestern pulled the upset. And this year, Purdue was coming off 2 straight losses and I expected them to play angry and win easily, yet Northwestern pulled another upset. So can it happen again? As much as I'd like to hope so, I don't see it happing.
Purdue 63, Northwestern 58
I haven't seen a line yet, but I'm assuming it will be around Purdue -8. (edit, line is Purdue -8.5) The Boilers have had some trouble scoring since Hummel's been out, but they are still such a good defensive team that I expect them to grind out a victory.
See everyone later, I plan on opening up another all day game thread as the conference tournaments heat up.
6 comments | 0 recs |
Northwestern 73, Indiana 58: Winning ugly
by Loretta8 on Mar 11, 2010 7:08 PM CST
in Basketball
1 comment
it certainly wasn't pretty, but Northwestern pulled away down the stretch to beat woeful Indiana and win their 20th game of the season. Michael Thompson led the way with 16 points, John Shurna added 14, and Davide Curletti had a career high 12 points off the bench.
In the first half, the 'Cats were ice cold on 3-pointers, hitting just 2 of 18, and if it weren't for solid work on the offensive glass (made easier since Indiana was in a zone the whole game), the Hoosiers may have had a big lead. Instead, Indiana only led by 3, as a Shurna tip in at the first half buzzer gave Northwestern some momentum heading into the locker room.
But that momentum didn't carry over, as the cold outside shooting continued and Indiana stretched the lead to as many as 8. And when Luka Mirkovic fouled out with just over 10 minutes left, things didn't look good. However, Northwestern clamped down in the 1-3-1 zone, and Indiana completely lost their composure, committing turnover after turnover and letting the 'Cats pull ahead. Michael Thompson then got hot, scoring 11 points in less than 3 minutes, capped off by a deep three to give NU a 10 point lead with 4 minutes left and effectively seal the game. Northwestern hit their free throws (18 of 20) and Indiana continued to turn the ball over, making the final margin a deceptive 15 points.
A key factor in the win was the production off the bench: Curletti had 12 points including 6 for 6 from the free throw line, and Alex Marcotullio returned to his early season form, with 8 points, 5 assists, and solid defense. While he tried to do too much at times, it's nice to see him looking like a Big Ten player again. Of course, the other key factor was Indiana being absolutely awful down the stretch. The Hoosiers panicked against the 1-3-1 and started turning the ball over like crazy (18 times in the game with most coming in the last 10 minutes) and looked a lot like the team that lost 11 straight games earlier this year, most of them by huge margins. Tom Crean has a ton of work to do if he wants to get the Hoosiers back to a Big Ten contender.
There were some good signs tonight, namely the bench production and Thompson's cold-blooded scoring in the 2nd half, but it's going to take a vastly superior effort to beat Purdue tomorrow. Jeremy Nash's jump shot has seemingly abandoned him; while he had 13 points, his only field goals were on open lay-ups. Drew Crawford continues to be limited by his injury, and Luka Mirkovic was a complete non-factor. Curletti did a nice job scoring off the bench, but he doesn't have the size or strength to bang inside, so Mirkovic will have to stay on the court. Also, 22% 3-point shooting isn't going to get it done against a top 10 team.
Despite the ugly first 30 minutes, a win is a win and the 'Cats lived to fight another day. See everyone tomorrow, and hopefully we get a better turnout for the game thread, although there was a firebillcarmody sighting.
highlights:
1 comment | 0 recs |
Women's Lacrosse vs. Duquesne, 3/12 at 3pm
All eyes will be (and should be) on the basketball team tomorrow against Purdue at 6:30pm. But if you're not planning on being in Indianapolis for the game, you should head over to Lakeside Field for the second NU Women's Lacrosse home game, this time against Duquesne.
3pm. Plenty of time for you to cheer for the team, get a quick dinner, and find a TV or watch party for NU vs. Purdue.
about 21 hours ago
TDozer
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Northwestern vs. Indiana/conference tournament game thread extravaganza
by Loretta8 on Mar 11, 2010 12:16 PM CST
in Basketball
91 comments
We're opening this up early today, as there's lots of college basketball on and who better to discuss it with then my closest internet friends? Northwestern game isn't til about 4 PM central, but there are plenty of games to entertain us until then. Comment away; rants, analysis, and predictions for today's game are all welcome.
91 comments | 0 recs |
Thursday Random Thoughts and Picks
by Loretta8 on Mar 11, 2010 9:33 AM CST
in Basketball
0 comments
- As Rodger and I have been tweeting about (and follow us on Twitter please), NIT auto-bids are being scooped up left and right. For those unfamiliar with the NIT selection process, teams that win their regular season conference title are guaranteed a spot in the NIT if they don't win their conference tournament, and last night regular season champions Quinnipiac, Jackson State, and Weber State all lost. Weber State's loss to Montana was at least entertaining, as Montana's Anthony Johnson led his team back from a 20 point halftime deficit by scoring 34 second half points. He has to be the best Big Sky conference player since the legendary Harold "The Show" Arceneaux led Weber State past North Carolina in the 1999 NCAA tournament . However, this is terrible news for Northwestern, as the 'Cats will probably need at least 2 Big Ten tournament wins in order to qualify for the NIT.
- I finished the regular season one game under .500 picking against the spread, but l'm now going to flip the switch and start taking over in crunch time.
#9 Iowa vs #8 Michigan (-8), 1:30 PM central, ESPN2
I was expecting this line to be double digits, as Iowa has just gotten destroyed their last 2 games and got swept during the regular season by Michigan. Todd Lickliter's first 2 seasons at Iowa saw them get smoked by Michigan in the 1st round of the conference tournament, and today will be no different.
Pick: Michigan
#11 Penn State vs #6 Minnesota (-6), approx. 6:30 PM, BTN
Everyone and their mother thinks Penn State is the sleeper team in this tournament and has a great chance to win today. Unfortunately for Penn State, in the words of the legendary Bill Parcells, you are what you are, and the bottom line is that Penn State is a 3-15 team in the Big Ten. Yes, they have had a lot of close losses, but most of those have been because of their inability to execute down the stretch. Picking Minnesota is always dangerous because they are such a Jekyll & Hyde team, but the bottom line is they are a much better team than Penn State and should win this game.
Pick: Minnesota
Overall Record: 44-45-2
Northwestern games: 15-6
0 comments | 0 recs |
Preview: Northwestern vs. Indiana: Glory's Last Shot
by Loretta8 on Mar 10, 2010 6:21 PM CST
in Basketball
0 comments
The Big Ten tournament starts tomorrow, and as usual Northwestern is playing in the opening round, taking on Indiana for the third time this season. Tip-off is at approximately 3:55 central time (25 minutes after the Iowa-Michigan game), and can be seen on ESPN2 with Brent Musberger and Steve Lavin on the call.
Going into conference play, many NU fans thought there would be post-season implications on the line in today's game; unfortunately no one thought the 'Cats would find themselves on the wrong side of the NIT bubble. According to this site, Northwestern is well short of the NIT right now, so there is work to do. Of course, the Holy Grail of the NCAA tournament is still possible, but it seems like a such a pipe dream at this point that it isn't even worth discussing. Instead, let's break down Indiana. The teams split the season series, with Northwestern winning easily at home in early February and Indiana winning on their floor in overtime on Saturday. The Hoosiers came into last Saturday's game on an 11 game losing streak, but certainly didn't look like a 10-20 team, as they had very little trouble scoring, and used a 2-3 zone to slow down the NU offense.
For Northwestern to win tomorrow, Bill Carmody is going to have to make some adjustments on defense. In the first half on Saturday, he went with a passive match-up zone that was highly ineffective. In a lengthy but insightful post, Welsh-Ryan Ramblings pointed out the big problem with this defense, namely that NU defenders don't fight through screens and instead just switch men. All Indiana had to do was just have one of their big men set a ball screen for slashing guard Verdell Jones, causing NU to switch and leaving Jones matched up with a bigger, slower defender and the Indiana big man (usually Derek Elston or Bobby Capobianco) matched up a much smaller defender. So it's easy to see why that didn't work. In the second half, Carmody switched to the 1-3-1 trap, and while it did force some turnovers, once Indiana got into their sets they had no trouble getting good looks, mostly by freshman 3-point specialist Jordan Hulls who hit 8 of his 12 3-point attempts. And when Indiana actually missed, the extended 1-3-1 left Northwestern too far from the basket to box out, allowing 17 offensive rebounds.
So clearly, changes need to be made. I'm certainly not a basketball genius (as seen by my losing record against the spread picking Big Ten games), but here's what I'd do. Instead of these weird zone defenses that are no longer fooling opposing coaches, I'd simply play man to man defense, starting with putting All-Big Ten defensive team member Jeremy Nash on Verdell Jones; Nash is quick enough and long enough to at least slow Jones down. I'd then put Michael Thompson on Jordan Hulls. Hulls isn't much more than a spot-up perimeter shooter, and that will keep Thompson out of foul trouble as he won't have to worry about Hulls driving by him. I'd then put Drew Crawford on Indiana's forward Christian Watford. This is the worst match-up for NU because Crawford has been hampered by injury and is giving up 5 inches, but I don't see an alternative, and Crawford should at least be able to keep Watford from driving past him. Watford shoots under 40% from the field, so I'd make him beat me with mid-range jump shots. Then you put John Shurna on improving freshman Derek Elston. Elston had a solid game last time with 17 points, but I recall him getting rejected by Shurna on a drive attempt, so Shurna should be able to slow him down. That leaves Luka Mirkovic on whoever Indiana rolls out there at center, which will likely be a combination of Tom Pritchard and Bobby Capobianco, and neither of those guys are great scorers. I don't see too many holes in that defensive strategy, at the very least it has to be better than what NU used last time.
In the last meeting, Northwestern got huge games from John Shurna and Michael Thompson, but very little from the rest of the roster. That was a big contrast from the first meeting when all 5 NU starters were in double figures. Tomorrow, someone else is going to have to step up, because it's very unlikely Shurna and Thompson will combine for 56 points again. Crawford is playing hurt and thus can't be counted on to do too much, and Mirkovic has been so bad away from home that I don't expect much out of him either, so Jeremy Nash will have to provide a lot more on offense. On Saturday he really struggled, shooting just 1 for 10 and missing several lay-ups, so hopefully he has some pride and bounces back strong. I'd also like to see Alex Marcotullio return to the form he showed in November, as he should get plenty of good looks from three against the Hoosier zone. I also hope he's been working on right-handed lay-ups.
Looking at the line for this game, I was surprised to see that Northwestern is an 8 point favorite. Indiana has a bit of an advantage playing so close to home in Indianapolis, and NU has done nothing in the last month for me to want to give that many points. On paper there's no reason Northwestern should lose, but there was no reason to think they'd get blown out by Iowa and Penn State either.
Northwestern 73, Indiana 70
I expect a high scoring game, but I think Northwestern will pull it off; after all they were a missed lay-up away from winning in Bloomington on Saturday. However, the smart money isn't anywhere near NU -8. Teasing Indiana +8 with the over 134 is highly tempting though if you're looking for action, in fact, that's my official pick for this game. For those unfamiliar with a teaser, it mean you're betting on 2 different things, and both have to win for you to win. However, you get 4 extra points for your trouble, so for me to win on this pick Indiana has to lose by less than 12 points and 130 or more points need to be scored.
I'll be back tomorrow morning for picks of the other Big Ten tournament games (and they'll be against the spread, none of this weak straight up picking like every other Big Ten SB Nation blog is doing), and I'll open up the game thread a bit early so we can talk about the other tournament games. See you then, hopefully we can do it all again on Friday.
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Ranking the Big Eleven's Stadiums
Somehow, Welsh-Ryan Arena isn't the worst.
2 days ago
Rodger Sherman
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