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NU basketball at NC State: Gameday

(Rodger here. Since the game is on the road and on TV, come comment along.  If you're on campus, the game is on ESPN360, if you're not, you best hope you get ESPNU.)

I would say more, but unfortunately, Loretta insisted on writing an insightful and interesting post below, so, screw that guy.)


Northwestern plays their first true road game of the season tonight, visiting NC State as a part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. For the third straight game, the 'Cats take on an undefeated team from a power conference.

The game starts at 6 PM central and is being televised nationally by ESPNU, with Beth Mowins and Jay Williams on the call. I know nothing about Beth Mowins, but there are only 3 other female sports announcers I'm familiar with: Doris Burke (good), Pam Ward (bad), and Suzyn Waldman (the worst of all time). Hopefully she's more like Doris. As for Jay Williams, I always rooted against him at Duke, but he does a pretty good job in studio and is very humble for such a great college player, so hopefully it will be a good broadcast.

I'll admit to knowing very little about NC State, but some research shows they went 16-14 (6-10) last year and lost their 3 leading scorers, so they were picked at or near the bottom of the ACC by most prognosticators. The Wolfpack are 5-0, with 4 wins over soft mid-major teams and one good win over Auburn. Coach Sidney Lowe (best known for blazers that make him look like he should be in a barbership quartet) was planning to play an up-tempo style this season, but that hasn't happened as they haven't reached 70 points in a game yet. They have been playing excellent defense, as they've forced 20 or more turnovers in 4 of their 5 games.

Their leading scorer is power forward Tracy Smith, who's averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds a game. Smith is a wide body at 6'8", 250 pounds, and could pose problems inside. 6'9" forward Dennis Horner is second on the team with 14 points a game, and is a good 3-point shooter, hitting 8 of 14 on the season. However with the exception of Horner, NC State has shot the ball poorly from long range, as the rest of the roster is shooting just 30% on threes. So expect Northwestern to clog up the middle and force the Wolfpack guards to beat them from the perimeter.

For an NC State perspective on the game, check out Backing the Pack. The author uses a very statistically oriented approach to analyzing the game, which I found interesting. I've gotten into the more unconventional stats for baseball, but I haven't seen this approach used as much for basketball (I'm probably looking in the wrong place though, I'd appreciate some links to the basketball equivalent of baseballprospectus and fangraphs, thanks in advance). Two things really jumped out at me from that post, the first being that Kyle Rowley's stats accurately reflect how bad he is, and the second being that from looking at the numbers, someone concluded that Jeremy Nash is a 3-point specialist. For anyone who's been watching NU basketball over the last few years, you were probably as shocked as I was to read that. His first two years, it was an accomplishment when he hit the rim on a perimeter jumper. It's really impressive how much he's improved his offensive game, credit goes to both him and the coaching staff.

NC State is a 5 point favorite in this game, a line that looks about right to me. Historically, NU has been absolutely awful on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, losing all 5 games by double digits, low-lighted by a 94-57 humiliation at Virginia. In their only trip to NC State, they lost 74-47 in 2003. Now this team is certainly better than a some of the dumpster fire rosters that the 'Cats brought into those games, but this will definitely be a tough game in a hostile environment. Last season, NU was inconsistent on the road against power conference teams, playing great in wins at Purdue and Michigan State, but barely showing up at Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. I would like Northwestern to win on a neutral court here and really like them at home, but on the road I'm hesitant.

 

My pick:

Star-divide

NC State 58, Northwestern 55. This will be a grind it out halfcourt game that's close the whole way, but in the end NC State pulls it out at home. I really hope I'm wrong.

Comment here if you're watching, scientific studies have shown that multiple commenters lead to victory. Go 'Cats!

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What?

No faith Loretta? We stopped two MUCH more talented big men in our past 2 games, and seem to feed off of opposing crowds (both Chicago Invitational Games, NU fans were in the minority).

I’ve got this one a pretty comfortable 72-60 in favor of Northwestern. We build a lead in the 2nd half, they get to fouling, and we pull away. Shurna plays well, with Thompson and Crawford (sure, why not?) providing the bulk of the rest of the scoring. Nash abuses the Wolfpack for 5+ steals out of the 1-3-1.

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 3:56 PM CST reply actions  

advanced basketball stats

oh, the things i would write here if i wasn’t writing about nu basketball elsewhere.
i’m generally ambivalent about advanced stats, but i consider plus/minus, offensive and defensive efficiency and a few other things like rebound rates to be simple stats that are pretty interesting and good indicators of things that are difficult to see just from watching a game. not sure how well kept these are for individual players at the college level, but it looks like pomeroy has most of them on the team scale. which is good.

by Rodger Sherman on Dec 1, 2009 4:47 PM CST reply actions  

oh, and

suzyn waldman IS the worst announcer of all time. or maybe it’s john sterling. one of those two. trust me, i’m a yankees fan.

by Rodger Sherman on Dec 1, 2009 5:45 PM CST reply actions  

Hey Rodger

You said you couldn’t write about basketball on this site cus you’re doing it for another site right?

What site is that?

by NickMarkaces on Dec 1, 2009 6:11 PM CST up reply actions  

well i'd tell you

but come on, you got google. you can figure this out.

by Rodger Sherman on Dec 1, 2009 11:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice...

…well, looks like Marcotullio is picking up where he left off.

Unfortunately, so is Mirkovic….with travelling.

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 6:29 PM CST reply actions  

Nash

With 2 threes, maybe Back the Pack was right that he is a 3-point specialist….

Defense looks impressive — 6 turnovers already off the Wolfpack.

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 6:37 PM CST reply actions  

Alright ...

10 point lead at halftime.

Now we just need Indiana, and Purdue to pick it up here in these early games to really put the pressure on the ACC….

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 6:47 PM CST reply actions  

Halftime

NU by 10. Why do I get the feeling we’re going to blow this game? Experience, probably.

by G1000 on Dec 1, 2009 6:56 PM CST reply actions  

Second Half Adjustments

The Cats need to keep playing agressively. Don’t start taking the air out of the ball like you did last year, Carmody. That cost us the Purdue and Illinois games. Also, they need to stop allowing the easy baskets in the paint. Go Cats!

by G1000 on Dec 1, 2009 6:58 PM CST reply actions  

Ugh...

…some of the turnovers this half looked like typical Northwestern — giving away a lead in the second half.

Luckily, we’ve rebounded well (+6 right now in rebounds at the 14 minute mark of the 2nd half)

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 7:15 PM CST reply actions  

Wow...

…nice block by Nash to foil a 3-on-1.

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 7:15 PM CST reply actions  

And then...

…he gets his 4th foul on a questionable blocking call (he looked set in the lane to me)

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 7:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Huge 3 by Juice

….NU up 47-35 with 11:14 left.

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 7:19 PM CST reply actions  

Gonzalez is a punk..

…and deserves that elbow from Marcotullio, even if it did cost us a technical.

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 7:30 PM CST reply actions  

Damn...

…we’re totally letting them back in this game….why hasn’t Carmody called a timeout?!?!?!

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 7:33 PM CST reply actions  

Oh...

…that’s why. Marcotullio with the 3.

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 7:33 PM CST reply actions  

Wow.

Nice win, boys….Juice with a phenomenal game.

by Chadnudj on Dec 1, 2009 7:56 PM CST reply actions  

Cats Win!

They survive after turning the ball over quite a bit in the second half. Good thing NC State couldn’t make a 3 pointer to save its life. NU has to stop trying to run out the clock when they’re ahead. It’s led to trouble every time, and they’re lucky they didn’t blow this one. Good win (and a great game by Thompson).

Grades:

Big Men: B
Forwards: B
Guards: B+
Coaching: B

Game MVP: Michael Thompson

by G1000 on Dec 1, 2009 8:01 PM CST reply actions  

oh, and

multiple people game threads = 3-0. just sayin’.

by Rodger Sherman on Dec 1, 2009 11:38 PM CST reply actions  

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