they’ll probably be favored to win all 6 games vs Indiana, Penn State and Iowa, but it’s tough to win on the road in the Big Ten even against the leagues second division (see last years loss at Iowa).

what’s nice about the schedule is that it’s very front-loaded (6 of the last 8 league games are against the aforementioned second division), so assuming the team is playing well down the stretch they should have some momentum going into March, and the committee definitely looks at record in last 10 games. however, those first 10 league games are going to be very difficult. a 3-7 showing in those 10 wouldn’t be that bad, such an absurd stretch.

definitely important to root for Notre Dame, Iowa State and NC State the rest of the way too boost the resume.

…this depends a lot on whether teams figure out how to stop our offense/attack our defense, the development of certain players (specifically Crawford and Marcotullio, but also Rowley), and whether we continue to get scoring from alternative channels (Nash one night, Crawford the next, Marcotullio the next, etc.)

An even larger factor is the question of how good, exactly, is the Big Ten? I agree that PSU/IU/Iowa are arguably close to the bottom of the conference, and we need to pull out a lot of wins there. MSU, Purdue, and OSU are tops of the league, meaning we’ll be lucky to pull out more than 1 win there….

So the crux of it is — how good is Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin? I’m not sold on either Michigan or Wisconsin (they’re both beatable by our team)….Illinois will get better during the season as its players progress, so it’s for the best that we face them relatively early. Minnesota? I have no clue….

So looking at the conference schedule, and assuming A) we go no worse than 11-2 overall non-conference (we’re already 6-1, so I’m allowing for a loss to Stanford), and B) will need 20 overall wins to guarantee a NCAA slot (19 with a win in the Big Ten tourney could do it too), we’d need to do the following:

- PSU/IU/Iowa tier (6 game): 4-2
- MSU/Purdue/OSU tier (4 games): 1-3
- Michigan/Illinois/Wisconsin/Minnesota tier (8 games): 3-5

I think we could do better than 4-2 against PSU/IU/Iowa….which would be great, because we might not be able to win a game against the MSU/Purdue/OSU tier. As for the Michigan/Illinois/Wisconsin/Minnesota tier, the goal almost has to be .500 ball — although there is even room for error there.

Given our high RPI non-conference right now (keep winning Butler, Notre Dame, Iowa State, and NC State!), even a sub .500 Big Ten slate might be enough to get us dancing….

GO CATS!

I hate RPI being used as a tool to determine which teams make the NCAA tournament. Last year, a very good Penn State team was shut out of the tournament while two teams that finished the year with a worse Big Ten record got in. But, since it is used, I’m really liking NU’s RPI ranking right now. They’re at #31 after beating NC State. If they can stay close to that ranking for the rest of the year, they’re a shoo in for an at-large bid. Will they? Time will tell. So far, 83% of voters (80% if you discount my vote) seem to think they have a decent chance.

So far, 80% of the people that voted in the poll seem to think the Cats have a decent shot at making the tournament. Let’s hope the team plays up to expectations when they resume action against NC AT%T. In the meantime, there’s still plenty of hoops to keep an eye on. Make sure to root for Butler, Iowa State, Notre Dame, and North Carolina State, since that’ll help the Cats’ RPI (Iowa State’s home loss to Northern Iowa was a bummer, unfortunately). Go Cats!

Northwestern is ranked #1 in the Illinois college basketball power rankings. Cool. And in one of the mock brackets being tossed around today, they’re a 9 seed. I doubt they’re as good as all that. But it’s still nice to see.

at Marquette. very surprised by that result, looks like NC State shot the lights out which is even more surprising.

Yeah, it was a good day for Northwestern yesterday. Purdue, Ohio State, Iowa, Minnesota, and Michigan all won (though the Buckeyes suffered a huge blow when Evan Turner got hurt). Wake Forest also upset Gonzaga, which is good, since Purdue beat them and Northwestern has to play Purdue. All of this helps NU’s RPI.

said he thought NU was a tournament team today during the Butler-Ohio State game