Fear-o-meter: the Auburn offense.
So, I told y'all about Auburn, the college, and Auburn's names, but I haven't told you much about Auburn's football team.
You might remember I used to do bi-weekly preview posts, one about the other team, and then one about how I expected Northwestern to play that team. Then, one week, I didn't do it, and we beat Iowa. So I didn't do it the next week, and we won again. Don't mess with success. So I'm doing it slightly differently.
I've constructed this: the fear-o-meter. As you can probably tell from the left side, I'm a big fan of o-meters, so, here's another one. I'll tell you how scared on a customized scale you should be of a varying aspect of our opponent's team and gameplan.
It goes from things you should be the least scared of to most scared of:
- Chinchillas. Soft, furry, and adorable.
- The Swine Flu, represented by the cover to Tony Yayo's mixtape of the same name.
- Public speaking. Not really that scary, but the one thing people generally say they're scared of.
- The Most Dangerous Game, represented by the poster to the film "Surviving the Game" starring Ice-T and Gary Busey. The Most Dangerous Game, of course, refers to either "game" as in "something you hunt", in which case the most dangerous game is man, or "game" as in "contest", in which case the most dangerous game is used to refer to one-on-one ten-beer, ten-cup beer pong, but probably should be used to refer to something more dangerous, like six-bullet Russian roulette.
- Clowns. Yeesh.
- Zombies. Self-explanatory.
- Kidney stones, highly inaccurately represented by a picture of a kidney bean and a stone, because I really didn't want to google image search "kidney stone".
- Flying sharks. The image is taken from the motivational poster.
- The 2012 apocalypse. I was debating whether to put this or kidney stones, but they're both pretty bad.
Ignore the km/h markers and the red line pointing to zombies: I made this using Preview in about 13 minutes, so chill out. I'll tell you exactly how scared of each thing you should be.
First off, disclaimer time: to be honest, I don't know as much as I'd like to about Auburn as I'd like - I only got to watch a half of one of their games this year. I planned on watching a few of their archived games on ESPN360, but apparently I can't do that because I'm not on a college campus anymore, and don't get the service. So everything you read below is based on me doing a lot of reading, perusing stats, and watching highlight footage. But for the real scoop, you should probably ask an Auburn fan.
So now, on to diagnosing Auburn's offense, after the jump:
Quarterback: All things considered, Chris Todd had pretty good season, throwing 21 touchdowns to only six picks, picking up 8 yards an attempt for 2377 yards, pretty good considering where he's come from. You see, Todd has had a rather freaky career: he started out at Texas Tech, where he played well in limited mop-up action in their crazy spread offense but obviously wasn't going to be a part of the plan. He wanted to transfer to Auburn, but rather than spend a year not playing, he went to juco for a season, where he played at a school called Hutchinson, and quite frankly, he was very bad there: he went 104-212 with six touchdowns and eight picks. Not stellar numbers, especially considering the lower level of competition. Last season, he looked shaky again, starting the team's second game and four more after that, but only completing 55% of his passes and tossing six picks to five touchdowns, and went down with a shoulder injury that ended his season early.
This year he threw six picks again - the difference is he threw 21 touchdowns to go along with it.
But I wouldn't get freaked out by that stat. Todd isn't an astonishingly great quarterback as a 21-6 ratio would seem, and after a very strong early part of the season, he's looked suspect at best as Auburn got deeper into their conference schedule. Todd is definitely solid: when his receivers are open, he'll hit them. (See: 17-18 with four touchdowns against Furman, 19-26 with five against Ball State, 25-35 as a Texas Tech quarterback with their freaky all-out passing Michael Crabtree offense.) But when they're not, we've got issues (see: throwing more picks than touchdowns two years ago at a junior college.). Todd has shown the maturity this season by not forcing stupid passes - hence the only six picks - but against good defenses, he's shown a really tough time getting anything going. (See: the games Auburn has lost this year, where he's thrown five of his picks and been dragged down for 13 of his 18 sacks.) In those situations, he just sort of holds on to the ball, and sometimes heaves up a pass that has no chance of being received. There's a reason that just four weeks ago, people were talking of benching him. He doesn't have a particularly strong arm due to a career riddled with shoulder injuries, and he can't run with it (negative rushing yards on the year), but he's pretty accurate with the short stuff, and at times can use this to pick apart defenses, although the golden boy that emerged over the beginning of the season tailed off towards the end.
Fear-o-meter: Zombies.
Also playing a little bit of time at quarterback is the decently named Kodi Burns, who plays Auburn's version of the Wildcat. He was a starting QB last year, tossing two touchdowns and seven picks, but after that sorta bad season, he was converted to wide receiver, where he's been pretty sub-par at that too, with only four catches on the year. But he's looked alright running the Wildcat, throwing for two TD's and running for five more, but he doesn't throw much - he's 4-13 out of the set passing, but has ran the ball 51 times.
Fear-o-meter: Public Speaking.
Running back: Ben Tate is a fantastic running back, and don't let anybody tell you otherwise. The senior ran for 1254 yards on 5.2 yards a carry with eight touchdowns, and that's not even telling the whole story. He's fast, strong, and long story short, was the second best running back on a team in the state of Alabama. There's only so many ways I can say "uh-oh" in a paragraph.
Fear-o-meter: Flying Sharks.
Onterrio McCalebb is Tate's change-of-pace backup, and he literally provides a change of pace, as he's probably speedier than Tate but isn't as good at finding holes up the gut as Tate. He got the ball 99 times - a decent amount for a backup - and turned that into 547 yards, 5.5 a carry. He ran for 114 and a touchdown against Mississippi State, and nearly outgained Tate against Georgia with 60 yards on the ground on only 11 carries while Tate had one of his worst games with 67 yards on 20. Basically, don't forget about McCalebb.
Fear-o-meter: Clowns.
Last but not least, Mario Fannin and his backup, Eric Smith. They're more in the vein of what we call "superbacks", but they actually have a vital effect on the game. They primarily block, but are the third options in Chris Todd's passing game as he loves to throw to guys these two out of the backfield, particularly on screens, and the pair racked up a combined 629 yards receiving, including 82 on this brilliantly edited youtube clip of a screen against West Virginia. Fannin also gets the ball a decent amount, rushing for 271 yards on 8.5 - 8.5! - yards per carry, while Smith added 99 of his own. Teams might overprepare for guys like Tate and wide receiver Darvin Adams, but these guys might slip under the radar and help Auburn's spread offense dink and dunk down the field a la NU.
Fear-o-meter: Clowns.
Wide Receiver: Basically, there's one guy to worry about. Darvin Adams is Chris Todd's first, second, and third options on most pass plays, and it shows, as nobody else on the team is close to his 855 yards and 10 touchdowns. By comparison, Terrell Zachary has 466 and five touchdowns, and four of those scores and 241 of the yards came on four passes. Adams is the team's only deep threat, but he's worth paying attention to as he will get open down field - the question is whether or not Todd hits him.
Fear-o-meter: Kidney Stones.
The rest of the unit, as noted, is rather slipshod. Lots of dropped passes, and not much production. Terrell Zachary has been able to get open for big plays, generally against inferior opponents, but he's not the type of guy worth double covering or anything. If you're wondering, Auburn's leaderboard for receiving yards goes like this: wide receiver, wide receiver, H-back, H-back, tight end, running back, wide receiver, tight end. Tommy Trott is a decent tight end, but he's a goal line threat and little more.
Fear-o-meter: Swine flu.
O-line: Haven't been great at giving Todd a lot of time, but Auburn's spread isn't necessarily predicated on that. They've been good at opening up holes for Tate and at giving Fannin room to run off of those screens, and it shows. All in all, a pretty decent o-line. They gave up only 1.5 sacks a game, and as noted, 13 of those came in their losses, when the failure was probably on any receiver to get open, causing Todd to hesitate and take too long. The line produced two all-SEC second teamers in left tackle Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh, and this is pretty much all I can say about them. For what it's worth, Ziemba is one of the few offensive linemen in the country to have recorded a reception, as Auburn runs a trick play in which he runs a screen route but unfortunately for Ziemba's stats, it went for -3 yards.
Fear-o-meter: Zombies.
Auburn's offense: It's a good one. You don't score 32.9 points a game in the SEC by accident. That being said, it's a stoppable one. Teams have shut down Chris Todd rather easily, and when they do that, regardless of how otherworldy Ben Tate is, they generally aren't going to win with a spread offense if they don't have any semblance of a passing game. (Theory in numbers: Todd has thrown under 200 yards five times this season. Four resulted in losses for the Tigers, and in those four losses, Tate averaged 107 yards on the ground, which isn't too bad. The fifth game was a 49-24 romp over Mississippi State that featured 390 yards on the ground.) (More theory in numbers: Darvin Adams recorded either a touchdown or 100 yards receiving in six of Auburn's seven wins, and failed to do either of those in four of their five losses.)
I look at this team and see a very good offense. But all things told, they're passing game, although it's worked well, seems just a few tweaks away from getting shut down completely. This is a team that lost five of their last seven games, and one of those wins was against Furman, and a major contributor in those losses was Chris Todd's inability to perform at the same level that he had at the beginning of the year, whether it be due to a nagging shoulder injury, not enough time being given from the line, or failure of his receivers besides Darvin Adams to do anything that could compel a defense not to focus their cover Adams with all they had. So although it's a unit with major scoring potential, and one that certainly causes a major threat, it's flawed.
Offensive fear-o-meter: Zombies.
So that's that. I'll have another one on the defense sometime, not necessarily soon, but sometime.
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wanna watch 360 archives off-campus?
use the vpn!
this will simulate an on-campus connection whilst off campus. sadly it doesn’t work for nutv… anyway. cs major out.
Good writeup
Like usual, the key for NU will be getting pressure up front. Thankfully, Wootton is finally becoming his old self, he has 4 sacks in the last 5 games (after 0 through the first 7 games). Hopefully McManis can show off for scouts by shutting down Adams, which is key.
--
JHodges
HailToPurple
You can watch archived games...
….at SEC Digital Network.
Roll Bama Roll - The Champagne of Bama Blogs.
Technically, Ziemba did not record a reception
because players numbered 50-79 can never be eligible receivers. That trick play involves putting the TE on the other side of the line from Ziemba who is lined up in the slot. He takes a step back and starts waving his arms like a madman with the intent of drawing the LB’s attention to him and away from the TE who sneaks behind them. Unfortunately, Todd apparently got fooled on the play as well, which really makes me wonder if he goes through his progressions the way I do while playing Madden (i.e. uh, triangle looks sorta open… sigh another pick six).
the penalty was declined
so the catch was hypothetically legal, and therefore stands in the record books. check it out, he’s in there.
by Rodger Sherman on Dec 18, 2009 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
lb spies
if you rubn LB spies and they stay there ground the runner will wun into the LBs if you blitz ou commit to a hole and get bloen by alot
Nice!
Fair and entertaining assessment. Don’t forget, our offense also get penalized just running out of the locker room. I don’t know jack about Northwestern and, frankly, won’t read much about them between now and New Year’s. We’re lucky to be in this bowl because of the way we finished the season so I am just going to enjoy it.
For those going down for the bowl, I’m sure you will be treated well by the Auburn fans in attendance. We’re a fairly classy bunch.
Agreed --
We get penalized for starting a play “before” the officials are ready… Go figure… And I agree that any fans in attendance will be treated well… Most of us are okay… Of course, there was that one “incident” where pfoley called my momma fat (but I don’t think it was an original quote)…
:)
DWWD -- WDE!
hey, man, i can do originality
yo’ momma so fat she tilted the earth off axis and caused global warming…
The Defense
Chinchillas. No, no, I’m only kidding . . .
Baby chinchillas holding miniature teddy bears.
I'm wrong all the time.
The same chinchillas...
I’m sorry – the same Baby chinchillas – that held the Heisman Trophy winner to 30 yards on 16 carries… :)
Coulda been a fluke – but it happened…
DWWD -- WDE!
You can stop anyone when you sell out your whole defense to do it.
Mark appreciates the respect. So does the true freshman you surrendered 3.5 ypc to. And McElroy who had probably his best game of the year up to that point.
To say nothing of the rest of the offense that the Auburn Fighting Baby Chincillas allowed to waltz leisurely down the field on that 8-minute, 80 yard touchdown drive at the end of the 4th quarter to win the game.
But, hey, moral victories are good, too, so I definitely tip my hat to Auburn for their moral victory over Heisman-winner Mark Ingram in the 2009 Iron Bowl.
I'm wrong all the time.
an alabama fan
seeks out a Northwestern blog for the sole purpose of trolling Auburn. thats dedication to the cause sir.
This post got linked by an SEC blog I read regularly
…and there’s no bad place to make fun of the ’Barn.
And, as a show of SEC solidarity, I sincerely hope that Auburn comes away with a great moral victory over Northwestern, too.
I'm wrong all the time.
Yards-per-play for 'Bama vs. Auburn
4.3, or less than Vandy averaged for the season.
Auburn’s D ate ’Bama’s offense alive for three quarters. The Tide won on turnover/special teams-fueled field position and one good drive. Only .. well, you, Pete, would talk smack about the defense that held your team to its worst performance of the season.
Auburn’s D “ate ’Bama’s offense alive” in the sense that Alabama never felt like it was so far behind that it had to do anything different. Follow the game plan, give the ball to the Freshman that Auburn looked like it hadn’t practiced for, and complete easy passes for short yardage.
No need for trick plays, getting nervous, or anything like that. Just follow the game plan. Most defenses look pretty good against Alabama for a quarter or two until the S&C differences start to show themselves.
So, yeah, Auburn’s D ate the offense alive for half of the game. . . but didn’t have the ability to keep them off the scoreboard, and once they were all used up and Alabama’s offense really wasn’t at all, they just didn’t have it in them to stop the one drive they needed to stop to win the game.
So, yeah, if you pick and choose what parts of the game you want to look at, Auburn dominated. We’ll probably see some people’s championship rings on ebay soon.
Whatever helps you sleep at night, Jerry.
I'm wrong all the time.
Me too
I already came away with an oral victory from your mother.
"Jay Jacobs can't go to the bathroom without Bobby Lowder's permission" - Paul Finebaum
by GumptownTiger on Dec 22, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
Bama
I was going to go to Alabama, but failed to qualify.
They found out that my parents were married.
WDE
by BoKnowsDiddley on Dec 24, 2009 11:24 AM CST reply actions

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