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Beggars Can Be Choosers: Tigers, two different kinds

So, last week I pumped out this post about teams from the ACC Northwestern could hypothetically play in the Champs Sports Bowl. 

Well, folks, I was a bit less than comprehensive: I highlighted four teams: UNC, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. I shoulda highlighted five: with a loss to South Carolina this week, the ACC Championship game-bound Clemson Tigers are also a highly likely choice for the Cats, so, my bad on that one.

I'll also preview another group of Tigers who we could play in the surprisingly high chance we go to the Outback Bowl. So check it.

33-49317-f_medium

Clemson Tigers (8-4, 6-2 ACC)

 

Left on the docket: No. 10 Georgia Tech, in the ACC Championship game, this Saturday at 8. These teams met in week 2, and a No. 15 ranked Yellow Jackets squad got the 30-27 victory. The TIgers were actually down 24-0, but managed to rally, only to lose on a last-minute field goal. Either way, I don't see things going too well for Clemson in this matchup.

Season thus far: Clemson's had a pretty mediocre one for an 8-4 team to be completely honest. They went 1-2 against top-25 opponents, eking out a OT win against Miami, 40-37. The Tigers were lucky to be in the silly weak ACC Atlantic division, which contains only two other bowl eligible teams, 8-4 Boston College and 6-6 FSU, and did their part going 4-1 against these teams, but dropping an embarrassing game to a Maryland team that went on to be 2-10. Still, that 6-2 conference record was good enough to clinch the division with two weeks to go, and the Tigers had a six-game win streak and a No. 18 ranking heading into last week's matchup against South Carolina, but a loss catapulted them back to earth and a potential Champs Sports Bowl bid.

Pros to playing them: Playing another school which uses a purple uniform set would definitely make me feel better about myself and less alone in this big, cold, college football color spectrum we live in today. 

Clemson has that double-whammy of looking like a good team because they're a win away from being a BCS team, but also being a squad that's best described as above average. 

Cons: NU has a bad habit of playing teams that probably should have gone to better bowls, and if Clemson is in Orlando, they'll be riding a two-game losing streak that's seen them slip from at least second on the SEC bowl ladder to fourth or fifth. We have an even worse habit of losing to those teams in those bowl games when their coach gives them the "let's show those other bowls what they're missing out on" speech, and then they beat us by dozens and dozens of points and we feel the sadness.

Despite all the hatefesting I've put on Clemson in the past few paragraphs, they're offense ain't one to reckon with. CJ Spiller, ACC player of the year, is Clemson's senior running back, and he hasn't averaged less than five yards a carry in any of those four seasons he's been a major member of their running attack, oh, and HE'S THE ALL TIME LEADER FOR MOST CAREER KICKOFF RETURNS FOR TOUCHDOWNS IN NCAA HISTORY. With seven. Judging from our lackluster special teamsage this year, that's not good. Also, for a freshman, Kyle Parker has been a serviceable QB, so it ain't just the Spiller show.

Likelihood of playing them: First off, they best lose next week, because if they win, they'll be guaranteed a BCS bowl berth and that will push all our Big Ten buddies a spot down the ladder, and that could theoretically push us a spot down the ladder and send us back to good ol' San Antonio instead of Orlando. But if they lose, I'd say it's pretty likely we play them, as their 8-5 record would put them fourth in the conference. It's really a question of whether the higher ACC bowls would rather have an 8-5 Clemson, who were just in the conference championship game after winning their division, or a 9-3 Miami, who was a better team all year but lost their one head-to-head matchup. I'd say Clemson's more likely to get picked higher, but time will tell.

 

Okay, so I was going to put a post up on potential Outback Bowl opponents - I mean, it's a stretch that we get picked, but even the most conservative estimate gives us a 15-20% chance of heading to Tampa, and the Outback Bowl is pretty much every NU fan's dream at this point in time. However, the Outback Bowl went ahead and made my posting job a lot easier by narrowing that whole list of potential opponents to only one: these fellas.

  Auburn_20helmet_medium

Auburn Tigers (7-5, 3-5 SEC)

 

Left on the docket: Well, the Outback Bowl, New Years day, featuring these guys and either Northwestern or Wisconsin. You see, the Outback Bowl picked Auburn today as their SEC representative, and uh, well, Auburn fans are happy (and confused), but everybody else is some combination of mad and confused. I'll explain why.

Season thus far: Auburn is one of ten bowl-eligible SEC teams, and some would say they're the worst. They're 7-5, one of six 7-5 teams in the conference, and have lost to three of those teams, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Georgia. They've lost five of their last seven games, the only wins being against Furman and No. 25 Mississippi, the only ranked opponent the Tigers have faced beaten all year. But the Outback Bowl has somewhere between the 3-5 picks from the SEC, and generally picks a team from the SEC East. So, there's some understandable outcry over them picking a team that might be the tenth best in the conference and comes from the SEC West. The only real positives to their season were the Mississippi and a win over Tennessee, one of those other 7-5 teams, and the one that until today seemed the most likely to go Outback.

Pros to playing them: SO MANY PROS. 

They're not that good.

They're from the SEC, the best conference in football. (Let's be real.)

It's a big name school.

It's the highest bowl we could possibly qualify for, and it's on New Year's Day.

WE MIGHT WIN. 

Cons: Winning induces joy, and the amount of joy generated by a hypothetical Northwestern bowl victory on New Year's Day against an Auburn team that doesn't belong in a relatively prestigious bowl that, let's face it, we probably don't belong in either, might expose Northwestern fans to a previously incomprehensible and dangerously high amount of joy, causing Northwestern's fan base into turn a bunch of soulless, pleasure-craving hedonists, causing many to forget about their worldly duties and become drug addicts, living from one high to the next, turning Ryan Field into a massive opium den or 47,000 seat outdoors meth lab.

Oh, wait, I meant to say "I can't think of any cons." Sorry, that came out wrong.

Likelihood of playing them: Well, our chance of playing Auburn is exactly as high as our chance of playing in the Outback Bowl. So about 15-20%.

 

In conclusion, I'ma go head and rank the potential teams I've discussed in order from most likely to least likely we're going to play them:

  1. Miami. 
  2. Clemson. If we earn the Champs Sports Bowl bid, we're most likely going to play one of these two teams, and it seems pretty coin-flippy to me. I'd also say the hypothetical chance they win the ACC makes it less likely that we play them than Miami, but, this is all semantics, so, deal with it. 
  3. Auburn. I think it's more likely that we play in the Outback than in the Champs Sports against the other three teams.
  4. North Carolina. It would be a stretch for the Tar Heels to get selected over Miami or Clemson, but they've got the head-to-head over Miami and some other decent wins to prove it. Definitely a better schedule than the one Clemson faced.
  5. Boston College. Nah. Das a HUUUUUUGE jump.
  6. Virginia Tech. Too good. They're going to a better bowl than any of the ones discussed. 

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Moving on.

Dec 2009 by Rodger Sherman - 0 comments

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Hilarious!

Something was wrong with the site earlier today. It’s fine now. Anyway, playing Auburn sounds good. But Hawaii has to beat Wisconsin for that to potentially happen.

By the way, the stuff you wrote about the pros and cons of playing Auburn is the funniest thing I’ve read in a long time. Great stuff!

by G1000 on Dec 2, 2009 6:02 PM CST reply actions  

Well written article

I’m no purple . . . person (I guess you’d call it) but I popped in to check on the NW bowl chatter. Tampa is not as out of reach as the article would indicate.

by Disinterested Par-tay on Dec 2, 2009 8:16 PM CST reply actions  

Gotta chime in...

If Clemson wins the ACC Championship, it is very unlikely that NU would get pushed down the bowl ladder because Georgia Tech would have 3 losses (10-3) and likely fall out of the top 14, making them ineligible for a BCS at-large bid (they’re 10th now). Although Virginia Tech is eligible at BCS No. 12, they aren’t considered a legitimate BCS at-large contender since they’ve been to the Orange Bowl the last two seasons and wouldn’t be a great draw for other BCS bowls who would be available to take them. They are, however, being seriously discussed for the ACC #2 bowl, the Chick-Fil-A (Peach) Bowl.

Also, Florida State looks to be cleared for the Gator Bowl after a contract situation that was cleared up today. I won’t detail the reasoning, but it is pretty much a go (unless the Chick-Fil-A skips over VT, which, as described above, is unlikely).

Auburn HAS faced multiple other ranked teams this year (most recently #2/3 Alabama last week, also LSU) but Ole Miss was their only WIN over a ranked team this season.

Also, it’s pretty clear that the Outback took Auburn to avoid having Tennessee in 3 of 4 years (since they’re the highest available team from the SEC East), and Auburn hasn’t been there since ‘96 (they’ve hosted an SEC East team the last 12 years).

I would actually put the chances of the Outback lower than your 15-20% range (more like under 10%). Despite ESPN Big Ten Blogger Rittenberg’s writeup today saying that NU is in the mix, remember that they said that last year when NU had a clear advantage over Iowa (better Big Ten record AND head-to-head win). Assuming Wisconsin beats Hawaii, which they’re favored to do, they’ll have a better overall record than NU and give the Outback a good excuse to take them. There’s a small chance that NU can go there, but it’s very small – don’t delude yourself into thinking that it’s a good chance.

--
JHodges
HailToPurple

by jhodges on Dec 2, 2009 8:36 PM CST reply actions  

FSU?

Isn’t FSU still a possibility? As I understand the ACC-Gator Bowl rules:

1) They have a contract that says that they cannot pick an ACC team with 2 less conference wins than another available team, BUT
2) They have a (subsequent) separate contract/provision that also says they do not have to pick the ACC title-game loser.

Right now, Georgia Tech (7-1), Clemson (6-2) and VaTech (6-2) all have conference records that are 2 games better than FSU (4-4). Obviously, the GT-Clemson winner goes to the BCS. Then the Chick-Fil-A Bowl picks, then the Gator.

Now, if Georgia Tech wins, it seems a foregone conclusion that the Chick-Fil-A picks VaTech, then the Gator selects FSU (using the “no requirement to pick ACC Championship loser” clause).

But what happens if Clemson wins? Would the Chick-Fil-A bypass the chance to have the local team (Georgia Tech) fill its stadium? At that point, the Gator would have no choice — they would HAVE to pick VaTech, correct? (because the aforementioned ACC-Championship loser clause would not apply)

Personally, I’m rooting for NU-FSU in the Champs for personal reasons (my brother went to FSU, and I’ll be down there for Christmas, so it would be fun for my family). But to me, other than the West Virginia angle (Bowden coached there), I’m not sure why FSU wouldn’t want to put Bowden up on primetime in the Champs rather than the Gator. The Champs is the only game on TV that night, plus it’s a game against NU, who FSU probably figures it can beat more easily than WVU to send Bobby out a winner, and who FSU would probably imagine travels less well than WVU meaning more tickets available for FSU fans….even though we know that both of those statements are not true.

by Chadnudj on Dec 3, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions  

FSU

That’s why I wrote “assuming the Chick-Fil-A takes Va Tech.” If they don’t, then the Gator’s hand will be forced to take Va Tech over FSU.

I see that as unlikely, the Chick-Fil-A has been eyeing VT for a while, they last went in 2006. The Chick-Fil-A is unlikely to take Georgia Tech (who was in the bowl last year) or Clemson (who was there 2 years ago).

I don’t think FSU cares about the time or date of the game, they just made it clear they want to play in Florida (obviously to maximize Bowden’s farewell). Although the Gator is opposite a couple of other games, it is still on New Years Day (and would let Bowden face his former WVa team).

Personally, I don’t want to face FSU in the Champs since it will just be a Bowden love fest with whatever NU does as an afterthought (even if NU does win). I think either Miami or Clemson would be decent opponents – definitely tough games but beat-able.

--
JHodges
HailToPurple

by jhodges on Dec 3, 2009 12:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Counter-point

While it might be an FSU lovefest, every eye (including recruits’) in the state of Florida will be on Bobby’s farewell. If the Cats were to beat FSU (and let’s face it — we should, seeing as how they’re 6-6, and we’d be arguably as “up” for the program’s first bowl win as FSU for Bowden’s farewell), with a young charismatic coach “building” a program up a la what Bowden did with FSU, with every recruit in Florida (and arguably the nation) watching….well, that’d be a pretty HUGE statement for the program.

Plus, such a game would just NATURALLY get more coverage, nationally but especially locally in Chicago, given the Bowden storyline — bringing more potential ticketbuyers to look at the Cats….

As for the VaTech point, I see what you’re saying, but remember that VaTech has played 2 other times in the past year in Atlanta — VaTech could always bypass the Chick-Fil-A (unlikely, but possible). Plus, the rules still aren’t entirely clear — I saw Mandel’s column, but that was pretty one-sided (namely, the side of the Gator Bowl). I’m sure the rest of the ACC (particularly the teams below Bowden and FSU) will be fuming and threatening to litigate the hell out of this in some fashion if they get slotted worse. Plus — does the ACC split bowl revenue evenly? If not, that is a HUGE issue here….

In other words, I think we need to stay tuned….and I, for one (and maybe selfishly) will be hoping for a Champs Bowl NU-FSU game…

by Chadnudj on Dec 3, 2009 1:06 PM CST up reply actions  

That's a well-stated argument, but . . .

There’s a big difference between the “bowl attractiveness” of last year’s Iowa squad and this year’s Wisconsin team. Without going into detail, there are several factors working against Wisky that haven’t been discussed above. I wouldn’t put NW’s chances at more than 50%, but I wouldn’t put them below that mark either.

by Disinterested Par-tay on Dec 2, 2009 8:44 PM CST reply actions  

I'm biased, but

It will be much easier for me (and many others) to go to Orlando in the middle of the week than to Tampa on New Year’s Day… and I think we’d have a better shot against an ACC squad rather than an SEC outfit, even one that’s in the second echelon of
SEC teams. Here’s to Cats v. Cats (Clemson) and cover those kickoffs, guys…

by jkosnett on Dec 2, 2009 8:56 PM CST reply actions  

ESPN.com is projecting NW in the Outback Bowl . . .

but I should point out that ESPN also predicts Tennessee in the same game, and the Outback Bowl chose Auburn two days ago so take that with a grain of salt.

by Disinterested Par-tay on Dec 2, 2009 9:02 PM CST reply actions  

ESPN's projections

Schlabach & Feldman, who do the ESPN overall projections, have been proven wrong numerous times through the years. I trust the conference bloggers (like Rittenberg) who know the conference-specific rules down (Rittenberg has NU going to the Champs).

Yes, Iowa was on more of a roll last year than Wisconsin this year, but as you should know bowl selections aren’t about on the field performance – they’re about putting fans in the seats. And, unfortunately, reputation carries more weight than anything else, and Wisconsin has more of a reputation than NU in terms of fan support.

Trust me, if you’re putting NU odds for the Outback at 50% you are very much kidding yourself. Even if Wisconsin loses to Hawaii, I don’t see NU’s chances that high (if Wisconsin wins I see NU’s chances at about 1%).

I personally can’t wait for Sunday for all of this generally uninformed banter to finally be done and to have an opponent on which to focus (as well as travel plans to make).

--
JHodges
HailToPurple

by jhodges on Dec 2, 2009 10:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Not kidding myself, just well informed . . .

You are correct that the off-the-field factors have a very significant impact on bowl selection, and when I mentioned that there are numerous factors working against Wisconsin, I was referring to those off-the-field factors. Frankly, NW is never going to outsell Iowa in a bowl game, but they can outsell Wisconsin, particularly this year.

by Disinterested Par-tay on Dec 3, 2009 6:50 AM CST up reply actions  

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten

Pertinent parts of Riggenberg’s article:

-Wisconsin still has a game to play Saturday night at Hawaii (ESPN2, 11:30 p.m. ET).
-Wisconsin has appeared in the Outback Bowl four times, most recently in 2007.
-Wisconsin has been to Florida bowls in each of the past five years. Plus,
-Badgers fans making the trip to Hawaii might not hit the road again in four weeks for a bowl.
-McVay believes the same number of fans would come to Tampa regardless of who is selected. This might surprise some, as Wisconsin ranks 15th nationally in average home attendance (80,109), while Northwestern ranks 83rd (24,190).

by Disinterested Par-tay on Dec 3, 2009 7:03 AM CST up reply actions  

Last Year...

McVay & the Outback were making the same type of statements and chose Iowa, something that NU fans knew deep down would happen but figured wouldn’t given the on-the-field reasons.

In any case, the bowl below the Outback has typically presented more compelling matchups the past few years (like Mizzou last year or Miami (FL)/Clemson/UNC this year).

--
JHodges
HailToPurple

by jhodges on Dec 3, 2009 8:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Like it or not . . .

the Wildcats may “have” to play in a better paying and more prestigious bowl game than you prefer.

by Disinterested Par-tay on Dec 3, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Preference

I’m not saying I prefer the Champs over the Outback, I’m just trying to be realistic in my expectations. I would love either bowl and would only get upset if NU somehow slipped to the Alamo (very unlikely at this point).

--
JHodges
HailToPurple

by jhodges on Dec 3, 2009 1:55 PM CST up reply actions  

You say we're "not that good"

yet we just scared the hell out of alabama. I guess if you (or anyone else) wants to beat us, now is the time to do it, the way we are recruiting.

"We're at AUBURN. I think that says it all. We're going after the best in the country -- no matter when, what, where, how. That's how we're going to do it. We're going to work really hard to try to get that done every year -- including this one." -- Auburn University Head Football Coach Gene Chizik

by AUshorecm on Dec 3, 2009 12:12 AM CST reply actions  

Rumors I have heard

are stating that NW has a really good chance of the Outback Bowl. This could actually be a fun matchup considering the offense for both AU and NW… And, yeah, I have a little difficulty believing the “not that good” comment. We didn’t play very well at times and, with an emtirely new coaching staff, there were some mstakes but, overall, was pleased with exceeding expectations. Hope to see you in Tampa!

by ATL_AU_FAN on Dec 3, 2009 10:14 AM CST reply actions  

auburn fans:

allow me to retroactively take back the “not that good” thing. after all, y’all did win seven games in the sec.
what i probably should’ve said was, of the teams northwestern could hypothetically play in a bowl game, i’d like my chances against auburn better than my chances against schools like miami who were ranked all season long and beat multiple ranked opponents.
and as the sec blogs i linked to said, auburn was somewhat of a questionable choice for the outback bowl.

i actually have a decent amount of respect for auburn – y’all won me over in the devin aromashadu era, and when your backfield was cadillac and ronnie brown with brandon jacobs coming off the bench.

by Rodger Sherman on Dec 3, 2009 12:34 PM CST reply actions  

No worries --

Nothing being stated on here, to date, is nearly as bad as most of the Badger postings on their sites… Apparently, WIsconsin fans don’t at all care for Auburn…

And, yeah, hard to believe it’s been 5 years since the ’04 undefeated season – Those players were a good group!

DWWD -- WDE!

by ATL_AU_FAN on Dec 3, 2009 2:18 PM CST reply actions  

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