State of the Program Address
With President Obama giving the State of the Union address last night, I thought it would be a good time to discuss the state of Northwestern's basketball program.
This season, Northwestern basketball is probably enjoying more media attention than ever before in the program's history. The team made a brief appearance in the top 25, and is an NCAA tournament contender for the second straight season. Around the Big Ten and the rest of the college basketball world, people are on notice that the 'Cats are no longer a laughingstock.
However, the bottom line is that Northwestern has gotten far more attention over the last two seasons than they deserve. The biggest reason for all the hype is the program's embarrassing history, not its very modest success. Expectations are so low that if the 'Cats are better than terrible, it's considered a great year. Last season is the shining example of this, as Bill Carmody was lauded for leading Northwestern to an 8-10 conference record (good for 9th place in the Big Ten) and a first round NIT loss. While the season was certainly successful compared to the god-awful Wildcat teams the previous two years, frankly I found it sad how many fans were thrilled about how the season went. A step in the right direction? Yes. A great season? No way.
Here are my goals/expectations for the upcoming decade: at least 3 NCAA tournament appearances, and a .500 or better overall record in Big Ten play. I want seasons like last year to be considered below average by the standards of this program. I don't think those expectations are unreasonable; I'm not some bloodthirsty Kentucky fan demanding conference titles and Final Four appearances. I just want Northwestern to be in the running for an NCAA bid almost every season. Pat Fitzgerald has built up the football program to the point where a losing season would be considered a huge disappointment, and a season like the basketball team had last year (I guess the football equivalent would be 6-6 overall, 3-5 in the Big Ten, and a Motor City Bowl loss) would be still be below expectations. My goals may seem lofty by the past standards of Northwestern basketball, but those standards need to change.
The good news is that Bill Carmody and his staff seem to have finally turned the corner. After years of futility, caused primarily by horrendous recruiting, Northwestern is well on their way to a second straight postseason berth (in all probability the NIT again, but an NCAA bid is still possible). If you'd told me after 2008's 8-22 (1-17) debacle that Carmody would have the 'Cats in NCAA contention each of the next 2 seasons, I'd have assumed you were a delusional Northwestern homer. But he's done it, and deserves a lot of credit. The biggest difference has been the recruiting, as Carmody has brought in at least one legitimate Big Ten player 5 consecutive years in Craig Moore, Kevin Coble, Michael Thompson, John Shurna and Drew Crawford (and by legitimate Big Ten player, I mean a guy who would be in the rotation for every team in the conference). And by all accounts, he's bringing in another next year with Jershon Cobb. I know I've ripped into Carmody a couple times this season for some of his in-game tactical decisions, but there's no denying he's done a good job this season. When Coble and Ryan went down for the season, most people (myself included) thought the 'Cats would be lucky to make the NIT, so kudos to Carmody for the job he's done.
This probably isn't the right time to look ahead to future seasons, what with this season still in full swing, but I'm going to do it anyways. Next season will be critical for Carmody and the program as a whole, as barring injuries he will have a team that should make the NCAA tournament. Trading Jeremy Nash for Kevin Coble while adding the highly touted Jershon Cobb dramatically upgrades the roster, and if that team can't make the NCAAs then it's doubtful Carmody will ever be able to do it. I'm not a very optimistic fan by nature, but I have to say I'd be surprised if that team doesn't get into the Big Dance. This season was supposed to be the year Northwestern finally broke through, but injuries have set them back. If the 'Cats were on pace for a 10 to 12 win season like many expected, using the injuries as an excuse would be ridiculous, but I don't think there's much doubt this team would be on pace for an NCAA bid with everyone healthy.
It's probably the best ever time to be a Northwestern basketball fan, as the program appears on its way to the kind of success it's never had. That's obviously not saying much given past ineptitude, but I'm hopeful the dark days are finally over. Interest in the program, both from fans and recruits, is growing. It's up to Carmody, his coaching staff, and the players to make the most of this opportunity, and continue to build the program until Northwestern is one of the better teams in the Big Ten year after year.
Don't worry, I haven't forgotten that the season is still going, so stay tuned over the next couple days for more current Northwestern basketball content.
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yes but
on the whole everything here is fairly reasonable, but i think it’s a bit aggressive to hope/expect for three tourney bids in a decade when NU’s had zero in its history. i appreciate the football analogy, but it’s not as if NU FB completely turned the corner after 96/97. there was a downturn after Barnett left (also known as The Chris Hamdorf Experience) and some lean years in the early part of this decade.
by firebillcarmody on Jan 28, 2010 1:34 PM CST reply actions
Good summary
I think this is on-point.
One thing I’ve found interesting is that our “best” (and by best, the gold standard for NU is one NIT win) teams have featured at least one pretty good big man, be it Kevin Rankin or Evan Eschmeyer. These two teams don’t have that. Luka has his moments, but we all saw how he got used against Minnesota or tOSU. That might just be the hardest commodity for us to attract – quality bigs.
re: big man
what, a McDonald’s All America who NU was able to steal from Duke doesn’t qualify as a quality big man?!?
by firebillcarmody on Jan 28, 2010 3:30 PM CST reply actions
If We Land Any of These "Southern Kings"...
Tournament appearances might be the tip of the iceberg. Unfortunately, one of them has already committed to Ohio State. Hopefully the rest won’t follow.
Note: If we find a way to get to the tournament this year (certainly still possible), I’m picking us to win a game (and maybe sneak into the Sweet Sixteen). I honestly think that once we break through, the sky’s the limit.
'Cats would be a dangerous tourney team
G1000 I’m with you on the tourney breakthrough. With our system and discpline, we’d be a tough first-round matchup and be a difficult team to only have 1-2 days to prepare for. (If I recall correctly, Carmody was in on the Princeton braintrust that beat UCLA team in ‘96?) Plus, if we broke through this year, we’d be playing with house money. I’d rather have the guys with the “Nobody Believed in Us” chip on their shoulder, rather than carrying the pressure next year with Coble on the squad.
To get 3 NCAAs places means that we’ll finish 5th at least 3 times in 10 years. I think that’s plausible if the recruiting pipeline stays healthy. Priority one should be Greater Chicagoland area. This is why John Shurna and Drew Crawford might be the most important keys to success for the ‘Cats in the next 4 years — if they thrive here at NU, then that will pave the way for local talent to want to stay in Evanston. We weren’t able to get Jon Scheyer this time, but I hope we get the next generations of Jon Scheyers to stay home.
However, Roto Jeff has a good point — bigs will always be at a premium. If you look at our kenpom.com stats, one that sticks out huge is the differential in Offensive Rebound Percentage — (Offensive rebounds / Offensive Rebounds + Opponents Def Rebounds).
Year. NU Off Reb , Opp Off Reb:
2007. 24.1, 39.1 (-15% spread)
2008 20.6, 37.5 (-16.9% spread)
2009 27.5, 36.0 (-8.5% spread)
2010 29.0, 32.0 (-3% spread)
The difference between the first two years and the last two years is the effective height of Mirk, Rowley, Shurna (and to some extent, Crawford for ’10 who has been a terrific rebounder for a guard). The more we can get more offensive boards, and close out defensive boards has been a key factor in the teams performance this year. Hopefully, Tavarus can keep finding some tough dudes to bring in here.
www.massivecreativity.com
Great News For me by the way...
The Big Ten Network is back. I don’t know why (maybe they got a bunch of complaints), but I will now be able to watch NU play MSU tomorrow… Wait, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

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