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Around SBN: This Should Encourage Juan Mata

A few observations from the MSG Holiday Festival

Luka in mid-turnover

This isn't a real recap; one of those may or may not be coming later. For now, I'll just give a few thoughts on the events of the last two days, as I had the misfortune of attending both of the games in person.

- A lot of NU fans need to calm down. I've seen a bunch of comments and tweets from people already declaring the NCAA tournament a lost cause. While last night's loss was certainly disappointing, it's just one game, and a road loss to a likely NIT team doesn't come anywhere close to killing their chances. With a Big Ten record of 10-8 or better, the 'Cats will at the very least be in the discussion come Selection Sunday. That's a tall order, but a long way from impossible.

- As good a scorer as John Shurna is, I'm not sure how suited he is for the alpha dog role on a good team. The problem for Shurna is that he does his best work offensively while off the ball, whether it's spotting up for threes or catching the ball in the lane while cutting to the basket. What doesn't really work for him, at least against good competition, is just giving him the ball and having the other 4 guys get out of the way and let Shurna do his thing. You could see this down the stretch of last night's game, as Shurna was held scoreless for the final 12 minutes. I recognize this is a very minor quibble, as Shurna is continuing to score at an incredible rate, but it could become a problem in the future.

Star-divide

- Luka Mirkovic. Dear lord. That performance against St. John's on the offensive end of the floor was one of the worst I have ever seen from a Northwestern center, rivaling the worst of Vince Scott, Kyle Rowley, Nikola Baran, and I could go on and list a dozen more post-Eschmeyer scrubs. His total incompetence in the 2nd half pretty much single-handedly killed the Northwestern offense, whether it was the bad passes out of the high post, the horrendous low post moves, the passes out to the perimeter when he was wide open under the basket (on one, he looked like someone playing a video game and pushing the pass button on accident when they meant to shoot), or the inability to move his feet after loose balls. A key part of the Princeton offense is the center passing out of the high post, but when Luka's man can just stand under the basket instead of having to come out and play tight defense, that totally closes down the lane for backdoor cuts and dribble penetration. I don't blame Carmody for sticking with him, as Curletti is merely a smaller, softer, more foul prone version of Mirkovic, but this needs to be addressed in a hurry.

- The defense was horrendous last night. LTP pointed the finger at the interior defense in his recap, and while he's certainly correct about it being bad, the problem goes far deeper than that. The perimeter defenders for Northwestern consistently do a terrible job at cutting off dribble penetration, and when you're letting guys get into the lane with little to no resistance, it takes an athletic shot-blocking type to keep the opposition from getting easy baskets. And as we know, Northwestern does not have such a player; Luka has so little leaping ability that he isn't even used for jump balls. I can't blame Carmody for going with 1-3-1 most of last night's game, it was ineffective but matchup or man was just as bad, except without the potential for the occasional steal and lay-up on the other end.

- St. John's fans (particularly the student section) managed to thoroughly embarrass themselves last night. Between booing JerShon Cobb while he was lying on the court in agony after an obvious intentional foul, and the "Overrated" chant in the final minutes at a team that was unranked, is historically terrible, and was an underdog in the game, well, that was a weak showing. I honestly think that may be the first time in history an NU basketball team has heard an "overrated" chant, and it would be one thing coming from a mid-major fan base, but it's pretty sad that a school with as rich a history as St. John's broke that out, do the students think that little of their Red Storm?

- It was nice to meet Rodger at halftime of the St. Francis game; hopefully in the future when I attend a game we can organize some kind of SoP meetup.

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i was going to post a recap

but i kind of agree with everything you said.

by Rodger Sherman on Dec 22, 2010 1:34 PM CST reply actions  

10-8 in the Big Ten

I looked at the schedule earlier, and I just have a real hard time seeing how we get to 10 wins in conference. Even if we assume going 6-0 against Iowa, Indiana and Penn State (something I’m not convinced will happen- as gawdawful bad as Penn State must be to get buried by Maine at home, they always seem to have our number); that still leaves four wins in 12 games against the following teams: Wisconsin 2 (home and away), Minnesota 2 (home and away), Michigan 2 (home and away), Michigan State 2 (home and away) , Illinois 2 (home and away), Purdue 1 (away), Ohio State 1 (home). I just can’t see us winning any of those games on the road, and can see us winning maybe two or three at home.

It’s well known I’m not a supporter of Carmody continuing as head coach, but I still want the Cats to win. I just don’t see where the wins are once we start playing in conference, because I don’t see us matching up very well against anyone but the dregs of the Big Ten.

by buckyor on Dec 22, 2010 1:35 PM CST reply actions  

yeah it will be tough

kenpom gives 10+ wins about a 15% chance

by Loretta8 on Dec 22, 2010 2:05 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't see it happening

I am pretty pessimistic after this loss, and definitely overreacted after seeing the score. To be honest, some of that had to do with losing to a Steve Lavin coached team. I grew up a huge UCLA fan and Steve Lavin was not only a terrible coach, but also a huge dick. But I digress.

Though I’ve calmed down, I still don’t see this as a tournament team. This isn’t something I only believe after the loss, but the loss exposed a lot of this team’s weaknesses. I just don’t think this team is good enough, especially with our track record of losing to teams we shouldn’t.

by WestsideBrandon on Dec 22, 2010 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

On point

Loretta8, I’m in agreement with your points. Purple nation has got to settle the hell down. It was a road game against a Big East team. I thought Drew Crawford’s missed three to potentially cut it to 5 with 3 minutes left would’ve made it a game, so they didn’t blow us out.

It’s impossible to predict how our boys will do in conference, as we certainly have enough firepower to beat any team, but we certainly lack the dependable defense to beat “the ones we should beat.” Given the history of NU hoops, the fact that we can say the former should speak to general improvement. Also, you have to factor in injuries, as well as timing of games. For example, I’m excited that we get Minny/Wisco in game 8/9 and 17/18 those probably the teams we’ll be scrapping for 5-6-7. Fair enough if folks want to skew pessimistic, but I don’t know if that’s totally fair to this crew.

In terms of last night’s game, if we have Juice the whole first half, we get out to a 10 point lead at the half — from there it’s a different game. I’m definitely concerned if we can’t keep him in the game for 32-35 minutes, as we’re not a top-tier offense without him.

We also have to figure out how to get Drew Crawford to be more consistent. I love the kid, but I don’t want him to fall in love with a fallaway 15 footer (or 20 footer). He’s gotta find a way to attack the rim. Credit to Shurna for showing that part of his game.

Seems like Carmody is going to try to get Mirk going. Mirk’s a total feel/confidence player, and we need him to keep the post honest. If other teams are going to sag off him, we have no chance to run our offense. I’d love to see Curly get more run, but the guy’s exuberance leads him to dumb fouls.

I’ll be at the game tomorrow, so I look forward to rooting our boys on. And, I actually feel pretty confident about the roadie at Purdue, as we’ve won there in recent years and while they’re a thick, defensive team, they’re still sorting out their offense. In other words, this might be a great way to see if the ’Cats learned anything from playing SJU.

www.massivecreativity.com

by macarthur31 on Dec 22, 2010 5:20 PM CST reply actions  

I'm one of those fans you tell to "calm down"...

Just so you know. I think you’re really underestimating the impact of this loss. St. John’s is not good, but they were really our one chance in the non-conference for a good road (or neutral court, depending on who you ask) win. This one was ugly.

Your observations about Shurna were spot on. I kept waiting for him to DO SOMETHING in the second half to get us back in the game, and he never did. That’s a problem when the other guys aren’t playing well.

We now HAVE to win at least one of our first three non-conference games, and I have a hard time picturing us doing that. The Purdue game is probably our best shot, just off the top of my head (although MSU’s playing pretty bad right now, so who knows?)

Still, right now we need to beat Mount St. Mary’s, don’t you think?

by G1000 on Dec 22, 2010 7:57 PM CST reply actions  

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