Monday Night Random Thoughts and Picks

by Loretta8 on Feb 8, 2010 8:38 PM CST in Basketball Comment 10 comments

Jeremy Nash seems excited.

- Monday always means the release of new NCAA tournament projections from various bracketologists, and Northwestern didn't get much love. NU was nowhere to be found on the brackets of Cheap Rug Lunardi, Jerry Palm, or Andy Glockner. Only SBNation's own Chris Dobbertean mentioned the 'Cats at all, naming them the 6th team out as of now. The aforementioned Glockner did discuss Northwestern during his weekly Bubble Watch, which is pretty much a must-read for any college basketball fan:

For Northwestern (16-7, 5-6, RPI: 65, SOS: 63), beating Michigan at home was a huge key to the Cats' likely late-season surge. The subsequent home win over IU kicked off an incredible run where NW has home-and-homes against all three of the league's worst teams (5-27 combined in Big Ten) in its final eight league games. Anything less than 10-8 would be awfully disappointing. Would that be enough?
GW: Purdue, at NC State (?)
BL: None, but can't eat many more

Despite the two wins this week, NU's RPI didn't improve at all due to the weakish competition and because the RPI formula gives more weight to winning on the road than at home. 10-8 won't be enough on its own, although the 'Cats could still probably get in with a couple wins in the Big Ten tournament. 11-7 should be enough on its own, especially if that's good enough for 5th in the Big Ten and a first round bye in the conference tournament. More likely however, that will be good for 6th or 7th, and the 'Cats will need to avoid a first round upset at the hands of Iowa or Penn State.

- Hammer and Rails caused a gigantic shitstorm today with a post about how the top of the Big East is massively overrated. I have to think most of that post is satirical, as no one could actually believe that Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown aren't really good teams. I do find it amusing how many completely brain-dead Syracuse fans came out of the woodwork to defend their beloved Orange; a sad day for the Syracuse English department.

- I managed to salvage a winning weekend picking games thanks to getting in my Iowa pick 2 minutes before tip off and continuing my dominance picking Northwestern games. Tomorrow there are two great matchups in the conference, and I'm here to break it all down.

Illinois at Wisconsin (-8.5). 6 PM, BTN

Ugh, I hate this line and would never go anywhere near a wager on it. I know I just got done declaring Wisconsin on their way to the Big Ten title, and I fully expect them to win here, but 8.5 is about 3 more than I'd like to give. Still, this is a classic letdown game for Illinois, and the Badgers should be well rested after cruising past Michigan on Saturday.

Pick: Wisconsin

Purdue at Michigan State (-2.5), 8 PM, ESPN

Despite the uncertainty involving Kalin Lucas's ankle, I'm taking Michigan State here since they are always so tough at home and I barely have to give any points. I don't see Purdue winning here unless Michigan State turns the ball over like crazy, as the Spartans should have a big edge in rebounding and the Boiler bench is still suspect.

Pick: Michigan State

Season Records

Overall: 33-24-2
Northwestern games: 13-2

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Comments

Basketball Prospectus and RPI

We’d better not pin our hopes on our RPI putting us into the tourney: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=451

I’m a pretty big fan of both Gasaway and KenPom, fwiw.

fwiw, pt. 2 – Rivals’ (Yahoo) bracket has us among the last in: http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1048641

Good post. I think that most of those brackets are going to shift dramatically anyhow – someone is going to slip, and then we’ll have the fallout from the conference tournaments. This week is ridiculously important for us, and probably our toughest in terms of cashing in on expected wins (I’m already writing off the Wisconsin game). Both games are winnable but tough.

by RotoJeff on Feb 8, 2010 11:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

good stuff

didn’t know about the yahoo bracket, ill be sure to check it out every week.

by Loretta8 on Feb 9, 2010 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Won't It Just Be Great...

If next year the Bubble Watch is analyzing the tournament chances of Arizona (12-11, RPI 67) vs. Seton Hall (12-9, RPI 63). 96 Teams… Whoo-hoo!

This was sarcasm, in case you couldn’t tell.

visit notournamentexpansion.blogspot.com to protest this absurd idea.

by G1000 on Feb 9, 2010 11:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Dear Wisconsin,

Stop sucking.

Signed,

A concerned gambler

by Loretta8 on Feb 9, 2010 7:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I’m glad they’re showing a few chinks in the armor of Wisconsin, but I want us to win there. No one else.

by Sasser on Feb 9, 2010 7:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Don't know what to think about this win

I really wanted to see Illinois collapse down the stretch. I wanted them to bomb out their last 8 games and finish something like 10-8 in the conference. Now it looks more likely to be 12-6. Now we’re suddenly looking at being the #6 team in the conference, if we beat Minnesota. Looking at the bracket, I don’t like our odds.

However, I do realize that their last two wins have some upsides. If Illinois finishes strong, they can end up in the Top 50 and that adds a win to our credentials. I also like the idea that maybe, MAYBE, there’s a chink in Wisconsin’s armor that we can exploit. In that sense, my hopes of us winning there have gone up from about 3% to about 8%. But, it could also be that Wisconsin comes out pissed and attempts to wipe the floor with us.

I hate being on the bubble.

by Sasser on Feb 9, 2010 8:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

teams are evaluated individually; there’s no quota on number of teams from a certain conference. if anything this will help NU as Illinois contending for the Big Ten title would make NU’s win over them look much more impressive

by Loretta8 on Feb 9, 2010 8:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

northwestern’s OK, if they win the remaining win able games they’ll be fine.

by jackbuc@aol.com on Feb 9, 2010 9:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Talked to CBS Sports Gary Parrish tonight on my radio show

He said we have a “good chance” and that there is NO WAY we are out if we finish 11-7 in conf. 10-8 is still probably 60-65 percent. 9-9 33 percent. Just win baby!

Derrick Rose will lead us back to the promise land.

In Vinny We Trust!

by DRose#1 on Feb 9, 2010 11:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

just saw this....

what radio show would that be? because there is zero chance NU is getting in to the NCAAs at 9-9 in the Big Ten unless they make a deep run in the Big Ten tournament, and I have a very hard time believing Gary Parrish said that.

Also, the term is “promised land”, not “promise land”.

by Loretta8 on Feb 16, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs