Big Ten Tournament Thoughts
by pfoley on Mar 8, 2010 12:23 AM CST
6 comments
I know no one should really be surprised by the announcement, but the Big Ten made it official and announced the tournament seedings sometime today, so now we as northwestern fans know what we're up against. The official bracket is here and you should all gaze in wonder. Or something.
ANYWAY the important thing is how NU is going to faire, right? Right. So here's some of my thoughts:
Game 1: NU vs. Indiana. Again. Well alright, we beat them pretty soundly the first time, and they handled our defense pretty well a couple days ago, so the real question here is which NU team decides to show up? The one that can defend sometimes, or none of the time? I think that Carmody is a decent enough coach to be able to figure out what Indiana was doing at Bloomington, so NU will be able to scratch out a win.
Game 2: NU vs. Purdue. Well the things we've got going for us in this game, assuming we make it, is that we match up well with Purdue according to Matt Painter, and they don't have Robbie Hummel. They showed that they can still win without him, and I don't recall him having a major role in our win, so we'll see if we can make lightning strike twice against the first of potentially 3 conference winners that NU will need to face. I don't think we'll win this game but let's assume we do for the sake of continuing this thought pattern...
Game 3: NU vs (MSU or MN or PSU). I personally think NU will draw MSU if they make it this far. They've started playing cohesively, and Raymar Morgan has emerged as a guy who can score almost at will. Which doesn't bode well for a team that has trouble defending teams that are relatively inept at scoring, like NU is. This, combined with the fact that now MSU is playing in a win or go home situation, and is vying for a high tournament seed, and the fact that NU can't win on the road, means that this is setting up to be a slaughter. Again. But if lightning already struck twice and we beat Purdue, why not hope for a third time, eh?
Championship: NU vs (the others). I'm predicting that the winner of the other half of the bracket will be Ohio St, because they too have been playing lights out. So this would set up the third game in a row against a conference champion. How's that for a gauntlet? All I remember from the last meeting in Buckeyeland is that it was really, really embarrassing, and I've basically suppressed all memory of the event. I know that Evan Turner is a contender for player of the year, and that's reason enough to be nervous (remember, can't defend to save our lives), so I really think that if by some miracle we win this thing, we'll fall here. I believe that Ohio St is the best team in the conference (as well as having the best player), so this will be the ultimate challenge. Win here and I might say that even if we didn't get an auto bid, we'd deserve an at large selection to the NCAA tournament.
But none of that's going to happen. We're probably going to lose in the second round to Purdue, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if we fall earlier to Indiana.
Thoughts?
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Hummel had 20. He was big.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/boxscore?gid=201001160421
I remember his steal that gave Purdue a 2 point lead.
Painter’s quote after the game was that he wished he could start Hummel, Hummel, Moore, Moore and Moore. Or was it three Hummels?
Ideally, Purdue fans would like a chance for 3 wins in a year over iu. However, we suspect Northwestern will win, and they’ve not been easy.
I think it’s key that JaJuan Johnson avoids the early silly fouls he got up in Evanston. The offense went stagnant with him out & I think he’s avoided it since then—the flip side is, Northwestern may be able to attack inside.
Things that cancel out Hummel’s injury are Keaton Grant playing like his old self and Kramer not slowed by the small ankle injury—NU’s guards got some maddeningly good looks. The guards can still beat anyone if they fall asleep, so we’ll see how the team plans for that.
I don’t know if an NIT bid is on the line for the Cats—I doubt it, but that wouldn’t hurt their sense of urgency.
by Beavis Beefcake on Mar 8, 2010 12:19 PM CST reply actions
Hummel was huge in that game
more important than his offense was him completely shutting down John Shurna. Even though Shurna was a better scorer than Hummel during league player, I can’t justify Shurna over Hummel for All Big Ten solely because of that game. And yes, Johnson staying out of foul trouble will be huge for Purdue, not just in a potential matchup vs NU but vs. any halfway competent team.
And yes, an NIT bid is very much on the line for NU, sad as it may seem.
Right, Johnson
I remember being at that game, and Purdue having one of their normal players being relatively ineffective. I didn’t recall hearing Hummel’s name very often, so I just assumed that he had a quiet game (very possible, Shurna does it all the time). I was just wrong.
But the fact remains; Hummel out is never a bad thing, and I’m not worried about our offense. We’ve shown we can score when we understand the defense, and we understand Purdue’s defense, generally.
Hummel&Moore can both be quietly good
Moore’s freshman year, his first shot @NU was an airball. At the end, I said, he had an okay game—and his stat line was quite good. This fools Purdue fans too, so don’t worry about overlooking that. If anything I wanted to show that Purdue fans do fear NU, and NU has the ability to pound a good team, which would’ve happened without Hummel. I can see Shurna learning to be like that the next two years.
Also, yes, agreed on the general point. Purdue really has to know what’s coming, and may have stronger/more experienced players, but if NU is patient, it can frustrate some smart teams. NU-Purdue should be a good game.
Amusingly, Loretta8’s above post made me look at the box score again and I realized Shurna didn’t burn Purdue as badly as I thought. I forgot it was Luka Mirkovic who did very well—missing things goes both ways. I was surprised how good Thompson had gotten.
by Beavis Beefcake on Mar 10, 2010 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
Another thought about Ohio State...
In the (99.9% unlikely) scenario that we would manage to face Ohio State in the final, we would actually have to defend Lauderdale. Good as Turner was in that game, for the love of all that is holy, DON’T LET LAUDERDALE TOUCH THE BALL. Over half of his shots are dunk attempts.
I Can See Us Getting to Saturday...
We’ve already beaten Purdue with Hummel, so without him I think we might do it again. That’s assuming we get past Indiana (which is a big assumption). Sasser, totally agree with your assessment of Lauderdale. When the brackets come out, I’m probably taking OSU to go to the Final Four. They’re that good. Our best hope is that someone else takes them out for us before the final (in the unlikely event that we win three in a row).
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