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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

One Less Day Til Football Season 2010, Post 1: Northwestern's Quarterbacks

YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH

BAH-BAH BAH-NAH DUNNNNNN

BAH-BAH BAH-NAH DUNNNNNNN

IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR AGAIN

TIME FOR ME TO BEGIN POSTING ABOUT THE 2010 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

WHO BEGIN PLAY IN ONLY LIKE THREE MONTHS

I'll be busting out like two posts like this a week, outlining how our team looks for next year. I highly, highly doubt I had any readers last June, so, I'll break it down for you: I'ma preview how each position looks for next year. Last year, these posts were really long and allowed me to discover that some of our ex-players were professionally employed playing American football in Finland. 

So what I'm saying is, GET PUMPED. 

(by the way, the first few lines were supposed to be the breakdown from "We Won't Get Fooled Again". Anybody pick it up? If you have a better suggestion for how to describe the breakdown from "We Won't Get Fooled Again" in letters, please post it in the comments section.)

Days left until football: 66 (Thanks, Hail to Purple!) (Also, six less than when I started last year.)

One Less Day Til Football Season, Post 1: Quarterback.

Star-divide

Who did it last year: Mike Kafka. Familiar, yes? He's on the Eagles now. Last year I used these posts to eulogize exiting players, this year, I used these posts to eulogize exiting players. Basically, Mike Kafka shocked errbody in the club by ditching his patented AHHH AHHHH AHH ITS TIME FOR ME TO SCRAMBLE I'M REALLY FAST method of playing quarterback and became a really consistent thrower, good for about 300 yards, a TD, a rushing TD, and .75 picks a game. And his picks generally came in bunches, i.e. five against Auburn and three against Indiana, so it was more like .25 picks a game, then four some games. Really surprising, given what we saw from Kafka. 

Who's got next: Dan Persa. He's pictured above, getting his nonsense wrecked by some guys on Illinois. 

Hmm.

I'm tempted to say almost the Exact. Same. Thing. I wrote last year about Mike Kafka. Dan Persa played limited minutes last year: he played garbage time against Towson, and was forced to come in and be our No. 1 QB against Penn State and for about half of the Iowa game when Mike Kafka was injured. It's weird to say this after what we saw from Kafka two years ago, but, perhaps even more than Kafka, Persa is dependent on selling his ability to scramble to open up his passing game.

He's probably quicker, but a little less elusive, than Kafka was as a runner. And if you watch his first drive against Iowa last year, he didn't even try throwing the ball until he had already established himself as somebody who could scramble before attempting a shot downfield, which turned out to be a touchdown for Drake Dunsmore

The upshot of this is that I sense he isn't very confident in his throwing ability. He has a strong arm, kinda - he threw a 72 yards TD against Towson that went about 40 yards in the air - but watching him play in spring ball and practice, he trusts his wheels more than his gun. In scrimmages, the Cats would put him in a four-wide set with one running back to protect him, and maybe seven out of ten times, he'd just bolt rather than trying to hit a receiver, and the coaches would whistle the play dead because you can't tackle a quarterback in spring ball. The spread offense means that with a competent quarterback, there's probably always going to be someone open five yards downfield. I get the sense that given the option of making a semi-difficult throw a receiver along the right sideline for a four yard gain or running, he'll run every time. 

That being said, what he showed against Penn State and Iowa is that, with the proper playcalling and with a little improvement he can leverage that into an offense good enough to be competitive against the Big Ten's best.

And hey, the people at the Rivalry broke down his game film, and seem to think he's a pretty damn good passer. Agree to disagree. 

Is that an improvement?: Nahhh, son! Not a knock on Persa, but Mike Kafka was a fantastic quarterback. One of the best any NU-head can remember. Persa has enough moxie to make Pat Fitzgerald disturbingly happy, but that doesn't give him the physical skills Kafka had last year, in my eyes. (Then again, maybe he'll improve drastically like Kafka did.)

Kafka was an accurate enough quarterback to pepper the opposing defense with those little four-yarders, left, right, slot, middle of the field, wherever. He also had the arm to throw deep balls and the speed to sell his running ability. Persa, to me, won't trust his arm enough to make those little tiny out routes that make NU's offense click. He'll run. And as good as he is at picking up those same four yards along the ground, his insistence on running might be a bad thing.

Who else we got?: There's Sippin on Purple favorite Evan Watkins, a dashing, 6-foot-6 quarterback with a silky cannon, who I thought was really sick the one time I saw him in spring ball, but it turns out is just a sorta mediocre redshirt freshman. It's an old adage that the most popular player on the team is the backup quarterback. Persa didn't inspire golden prose round these parts last year as a backup, with Watkins, all that's changed. Watkins has a stronger arm than Persa, can run - as evidenced in the spring game - he's got a good ten inches on Persa and everywhere he walks, a bed of roses springs up by his feet. He also has THE BEST HIGH SCHOOL HIGHLIGHTS VIDEO I'VE EVER WATCHED.

Let's break down why this is the best high school highlights video I've ever watched:

1) Usage of "Move On Up", arguably my favorite song of all time, to come back from the weird, cheesy, AWESOME, channel-surfing motif used to start off the highlights video, along with the cheesy awesome "welcome back to the Evan Watkins show" screen.

2) The two slobbering high school football analysts discussing how he's the greatest human being of all time in the beginning.

3) Ridiculously high production values.

4) VICTIM #1.

5) The fact that every time he does anything, it gets rewound along with the beat of the song.

6) The fact that Evan Watkins is 2 billion times better than anybody else playing football in any of the clips.

That's about it. 

For depth, that's it. There are two decently highly recruited true freshmen - Trevor Siemian and Kain Colter - on the roster, but Pat Fitzgerald would rather choke out a small toddler than burn one of their redshirts, and that's because he hates burning redshirts, not because he hates children. (word on the street is he loves kids.) (not in a creepy way. in a Pat Fitzgerald is top five people of all time way, and therefore loves kids.)

 

Next up, running backs. Until then, one less day till football season.

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I hate that video for the same reason you love it. I want to see the guy play, not have it constantly chopped up and rewound in time wioth the music. Meh.

I’m a little fearful of you getting Dan McGwire disease, which occurs when someone falls in love with a big-armed, long QB such as Big Mac’s younger brother, who really couldn’t play QB at all. Not that Watkins will suck like McGwire did, but that those measurables that some people fall in love with are not all that meaningful. Just ask Drew Brees, or closer to home, Jay Cutler.

As for Persa, one thing to keep in mind is this: it is one thing to come into a game cold and have to perform at a high level, and another thing to be the anointed starter. The latter gets the huge majority of reps at practice, the former carries a clipboard. For example- take Kafka two years ago against Indiana, when he had to come in late to replace an injured CJ Bacher, and compare that to his performance a week later against Minnesota, when it was clear all week that he would start. Or compare Iowa’s backup who came in last season when 99 knocked Stanzi into next week. He absolutely blew against the Cats, but played very well the following week against Ohio State. Or Persa himself, who was pretty much a deer in the headlights when he had to come in aganist Penn State last season, but performed a lot better following a week of prep in the Iowa game. That prep gives a QB a lot more confidence in his game, and gives the coaching staff a lot more confidence as well.

by buckyor on Jun 30, 2010 11:14 AM CDT reply actions  

I'm expecting Persa to make a Kafka-esque shift in his play

With a summer as the starter he should get more comfortable with passing rather than scrambling.

Are you sure that’s the right #7 being mauled by an Illini in the picture at the top? I don’t remember Persa playing much that game, and it looks like the shot of Hunter Bates after recovering the onside kick.

by Batman42 on Jun 30, 2010 12:00 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

good thinking!

it is persa, though. first off, it looks like him. second off, after reading this, i went back and looked at the illinois play-by-play, and there was a play in which he was tackled for a loss of 1 yard by the two dudes pictured tackling him. so i’m pretty sure it’s him.
yeah. i fact-check. suck it.

by Rodger Sherman on Jun 30, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Persa's success this year will depend on

the performance post #(insert number here): Offensive Line. It was just the spring scrimmage and a lot of people’s first time on campus but color me unimpressed on that day. For the record I thought Watkins looked better at the spring scrimmage too. Keyword here is scrimmage though. Who knows what will happen in 50+ days when I get to sit in my seats and enjoy this team again.

"You just don't know understand how frustrating this is"- Kevin Borseth

by TkGoUWGB on Jun 30, 2010 5:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Back in the Land of Lincoln to see what NU has coming back at QB

Worried about quarterback situation; this reminds me a lot of 08 LSU. Right from the start we lost our 5 star high school player of the year in 05 QB Ryan Perrilloux for both several off-field problems and missing classes, team meetings, and such; so, we had the older guy Andrew Hatch with very little experience (about the same as Persa) who was more of a runner and had not really even learned to throw the short passes all that well—like Persa. The other candidate was Jerret Lee a rs freshman with a big arm rated in the ESPN 150 when he came out of high school—like Watkins (Watkins not an ESPN 150 player but rated a grade of 78 which is on the cusp of a 150 rating). Hatch won the job and cruised through two easy wins(App. St., and North Texas) before being benched after the offense sputtered at the beginning of the Auburn game. Lee came in and threw a pick six. Hatch came back in the third quarter and was starting to get offense moving—mostly by running, but he did complete a couple of short passes—before an Auburn player knocked him out for basically the season. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTDUZhpf37U Lee came in and actually threw a long td pass in a great comeback. Lee was the starter for the next 6 games throwing a lot of interceptions—but even worse, a lot of pick sixes, 7 in all for the season. It got to the point were you could see it coming—locking into one receiver, just blindly throwing the ball into the middle of the field, or the worst, a pick six pass into the flat. It seemed we started most games down 7-0. Jarret Lee was benched near the end of the season and has never been back in much. He needed to be brought along slowly and I think he never really recovered psychologically. Seeing the video of Watkins—very funny—he looks like he has been used to slinging it all over the field against inferior competition. This could be bad. For LSU, Hatch would have continued to improve throwing the short pass mixed in with his running ability like Batman42 is suggesting for Persa. Unless Watkins really impresses in August, should stick with Persa. The picture in the Illinois game—ouch! But he is going to get hit just like Hatch was getting hit; hopefully not knocked out like the video. I did see 8 starters return on offense and this is encouraging; maybe NU can ground it out some to help whoever starts at QB. I saw Zach Oliver—rated a grade of 78 by ESPN for 2011—out of Catholic High in Baton Rouge gave of verbal to NU. LSU was considering giving him a scholarship, but he got tired of waiting. Catholic plays in 5A category—the highest—and he has and will play against a lot of the states best. He seems to have a chip on his shoulder after being spurned by LSU, so, you might have a really good player by the time he gets to NU. Off the subject, I did look up the different rivalry trophies in the Big Ten—the best of any conference by far—and was disappointed that the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk was retired. I think it looks awesome and is the best of the bunch, but now I guess Paul Bunyan’s Axe would take the top spot for active trophies. Land of Lincoln trophy is a good trophy, but the tomahawk is the best—at least NU gets to keep it.

by mjtig on Jul 1, 2010 7:20 PM CDT reply actions  

Since I'm on here again, may as well point out a slight correction...

Fitz hates burning redshirts in a lot of situations, but not necessarily all. Last year he burned 5-star OL Patrick Ward’s redshirt in the first game of the year (against Towson) and continued to use Ward as a backup scattered throughout the season. Ward is currently listed as a starter, but I’m not sure how much value that backup playing time has actually done him.

Also, Fitz burned the shirts of RB Fields and LB Goodlow last year (admittedly those positions were either not very deep or had injury issues, basically forcing his hand).

But, at the QB position, so far he has stuck to the redshirt plan, and I expect that to continue this year. NU will operate with 2 QBs, and Persa is most definitely the starter – I only expect to see Watkins in garbage time or in case of injury, and Fitz will only burn a shirt if he’s forced to by injury.

--
JHodges
HailToPurple

by jhodges on Jul 9, 2010 9:39 AM CDT reply actions  

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