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Northwestern 98, SIU Edwardsville 55: When Keeping It Classy Goes Wrong

The goals for tonight's game were simple: no injuries, plenty of playing time for the reserves, and 100 points for the first time under Bill Carmody. I guess two out of three ain't bad, as there were no injuries and the bench played a ton (Shurna didn't even dress and none of the other four starters played more than 20 minutes), but sadly,NU fell just short of the 100-point barrier, as Carmody ordered the walk-ons to dribble out the clock on the final two possessions, to the chagrin of what few Wildcat fans remained. I watched all the way to the end in hopes of seeing 100, and found myself very disappointed.

Aside from that, the game went about as expected; Pomeroy's prediction of a 94-55 NU win was just about perfect. SIUE kept it relatively close for the first 10 minutes, as NU was giving about 50% effort on defense, but once they stopped goofing around, a 21-17  lead quickly turned into 55-22 before SIUE banked in a 3 at the first half buzzer.

Star-divide

It was quite the balanced attack for NU on offense, as they had 5 players in double figures and 3 more who finished with 9 points. NU shot 58% from the field, went 11 for 23 on threes, and 15 for 18 from the line, and pretty much got whatever they wanted on offense. Player bullets:

Drew Crawford led NU with 16 points in 16 minutes, and scored with incredible ease driving to the basket; he could have scored a lay-up on every NU possession had he been so inclined.

• Luka Mirkovic had 15 points in just 11 minutes, making all 4 of his field goals (including a three), and all 6 of his free throws. Luka has been improving at the line throughout the season, hopefully he wont regress back to his old form.

Mike Capocci filled up the box score with 9 points, a career-high-tying 6 assists, 5 rebounds and 3 steals. He did, however, commit three turnovers, all of them coming when he tried to dribble the ball through traffic at mid-court. Stop that please Mike.

• The scrubs were pretty dominant. Reggie Hearn had 10 points, Ivan Peljusic and Nick Fruendt both had 9, and Fruendt somehow managed 4 steals. Austin Nichols was the only NU played who didn't score, as he missed two threes and a front end in his 10 minutes. The NU bench was imploring Nichols to get on the board at the end, and he had a chance to pull up for a 12 foot jumper with about a minute left, but instead passed it to a cutting Peljusic for a lay-up. Way to be unselfish Austin.

Ok, there's only so much I can write about a game that felt more like an exhibition than the actual exhibition game NU played vs. Robert Morris (and I now see SIU Edwardsville plays Robert Morris in a few weeks; SIUE will get blown out). Too bad we didn't get 100 though; maybe it will come Sunday in a thrilling quintuple overtime win over Wisconsin.

Oh, I almost forgot. SoP commenter WestsideBrandon did the color for the BTN.com broadcast, and did an excellent job, seriously. I've listened to plenty of student announcers this season on various BTN.com broadcasts, and I have to say that Brandon is definitely one of if not the best student color commentator I've heard. So nice job bro, and be glad you did do a good job, as I would have been more than willing to spend two-thirds of this recap making fun of you had you sucked.

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so you guys convinced me

and i went to the game. great performance by our B and C team, reggie hearn is a baller, and capocci wasn’t bad and could probably stand a few more minutes than he normally gets.

on the whole pretty boring game, and i wish carmody would’ve let them hit 100.

by pfoley on Jan 20, 2011 8:16 PM CST reply actions  

good game from the bench

i just hope someone realizes that despite the easy win, the lack of rest and rpi downer hurt the team more than not playing a game at all would have.

by Rodger Sherman on Jan 20, 2011 10:23 PM CST reply actions  

Pretty cool

1. I just noticed that until Tuesday (Michigan game), we hadn’t had a “good win” (Opponent’s RPI < 100) or “bad loss” (RPI>100). I have to imagine we were the last team to be Good-win/Bad-lossless. Can anyone find another?
I realize that RPI rankings, and therefore “good wins” and “bad losses” are dynamic, so let’s simplify and just use today’s RPI rankings (http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html)

2. By the way, we rode last night’s win up to #37 on KenPom. Does anyone know why he still doesn’t cap margin of victory in his stats. Is there really predictive value in a team getting a 50-point win vs. a 30-point one?

by Brad Silverman on Jan 21, 2011 12:08 PM CST reply actions  

no good wins or bad losses

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Belmont

Belmont is absolutely mauling bad teams, which is why KenPom loves them. I would say there is a lot of predictive value in 50 points vs 30 when handicapping future games between mismatched teams, but it would be smart to somehow reduce the impact of garbage time minutes when picking wins vs losses.

by Loretta8 on Jan 21, 2011 12:23 PM CST up reply actions  

i don't question kenpom

he’s virtually always right. even when he seems weird – man, no way nu will win by 39! – they win by 43.
when nu hosts msu – man, no way this is a one point game! – it ends up being a one point game until the final possession.
whatever he uses, it predicts things well.

by Rodger Sherman on Jan 21, 2011 12:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks for the dap.

I mean, I’ll never do color professionally seeing as I’m not 6’5’’ and didn’t play high school basketball. But hey, they paid me to watch us smang SIU Edwardsville.

All in all, not too much to take away from this game. Other than the fact there are more reasons to be mad at Bill Carmody. I really wanted to see them get 100. I shouldn’t complain, though. John Shurna got a day off and Juice didn’t play 20 minutes. For some reason,

I’ve got a good feeling about Sunday. I’ve been pretty pessimistic about the team this year no doubt, but I see a great opportunity for a resume building win. Wisconsin struggled at home against Indiana last night, but they’re still ranked in the top 20. We’re 9-1 at Welsh-Ryan this season and I think the game should be well attended. Let’s do it, ’Cats.

by WestsideBrandon on Jan 21, 2011 2:40 PM CST reply actions  

Predictive Analysis

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_big10_Men.html

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Northwestern

I love how NU is dead last on SOS, just embarrassing. Laughable how Ken Pom projects us to 9-9, and has us winning the following Big Ten games and my thoughts in parenthesis.

Home Illinois (NOPE)
Away Michigan (YES)
Home Iowa (YES)
Away Indiana (YES)
Home Penn State (NOPE)
Home Minnesota (Maybe)

So, he has us finishing 6-5 the rest of the way in the Big Ten. Really, how many people will bet on that. NOBODY!

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 21, 2011 2:41 PM CST reply actions  

other projections

sagarin’s computer also projects a 9-9 record as the most likely outcome (although both models put it at only about 25%, with 9 total wins as the closest whole number to the center of the bell curve, the mean is around 8.6).

also, there are plenty of people who would bet on NU going 6-5 or better in their next 11. they’re probably a slight underdog to do so, but it’s not exactly out of the question.

by Loretta8 on Jan 21, 2011 3:20 PM CST up reply actions  

We have yet to beat a RPI Top 50...

So, we are going to beat Illinois (who absolutely owned us) and Penn State (who swept us last year and seem to us COMPLETELY figured out), that is highly doubtful. Sure, we can beat Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, but call me when we beat a good team. We only have 2 Top 100 wins (American & Michigan), both of which are bad, and NO top 50 wins, so until that happens 6-5 seems like blind optimism that is reflective of a team that won 2 games in a row.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 21, 2011 3:33 PM CST up reply actions  

pomeroy

has a proven track record of accurate win probabilities and point spreads. the vegas spreads are consistently very close to his projected spreads. you’re acting like he’s some kind of buffoon, while ironically making yourself look like one.

by Loretta8 on Jan 21, 2011 3:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Wow, insults now..

Look, Ken Pomeroy is an excellent statistician, he bases his games on many statistical models, but if those outcomes were very accurate, then he wouldn’t do that website, he would be a billionaire from all his gambling wins.

If you see how NU played Illinois and how PSU is playing this year (recently) and has played us in the past, then it’s not a hard assumption to think that while we are at home, we still will not win those games. Is it possible, of course, but is it even probable, not really.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 21, 2011 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

but if those outcomes were very accurate, then he wouldn’t do that website, he would be a billionaire from all his gambling wins.

haha, ok champ.

by Loretta8 on Jan 21, 2011 5:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Total Bball IQ Mismatch

If BC were here, he’d tell you to run out the clock at this point

by Brad Silverman on Jan 21, 2011 5:24 PM CST up reply actions  

I take it back...

Sorry, I was wrong in my Ken Pom argument. Completely concede, it wasn’t correct and didn’t make sense. Apologies. He is a good predictive statistician.

So, based on my watching this current core team for past 3 seasons, here is my ‘predictive analysis’ of game outcomes. Let’s see who is more accurate going forward.

Home Wisconsin – Loss
At Minnesota – Win (Top 100 RPI Win)
Home OSU – Loss
Home Illinois – Loss
At Michigan – Win
At PSU – Loss
Home Iowa – Win
At Indiana – Win
Home PSU – Loss
At Wisconsin – Loss
Home Minnesota – Loss

Finishing 8th in the Big Ten with a 7-11 record, winning 1 game in the Big Ten (8-9) matchup, losing to the #1 seed in 2nd round. A #6 seed in NIT with one NIT win, and then a 2nd round NIT loss.

One explanation: I have NU winning at Minnesota and losing at home, b/c I think the final game will mean a lot of Minnesota and will be playing for a NCAA berth/seeding.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 22, 2011 8:41 AM CST up reply actions  

dude, every comment i've read from you is just blind pessimism

I mean I’m all for being realistic, but I hardly think NOPE in big ol’ caps is really necessary. I mean look at what you’ve said:

Shurna’s not good
we’re not going to hit 500 in big ten play
penn state will own us at welsh ryan
NOBODY will bet on us finishing the season 6-5

There’s absolutely no measure of optimism in anything you’re saying; it’s almost like you’re not a fan.

Will we finish 6-5 in conference? I don’t know. I honestly think we’ll pick up a win against a ranked opponent and drop one to a team like Penn St. The game we drop will not be the one at home.

I mean, if this season has taught us anything, it’s that when we’re completely healthy, we’re about as good as MSU. How often can we stick that feather in our cap?

You’ve been such a downer, it’s no fun.

by pfoley on Jan 21, 2011 3:42 PM CST up reply actions  

AND

to top it all off, I have no idea what you’re basing this pessimism on! You criticize us for being optimistic with no top 50 wins, but look at you being all negative with now <50 losses either!

There’s not much we can judge this team on, either positively or negatively, so why be so down on a team that, honestly, has never looked better?

by pfoley on Jan 21, 2011 3:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Let me be clear...

I’m not here to be a blind fan, if that’s the purpose of this message board, then I apologize and will not post. I thought it is to analyze this basketball program.

I did not say John Shurna is not good. My point is that he has not proven it THIS YEAR against good teams.

Until we beat a top 50 RPI team, it is hard to say we will hit .500 in Big Ten play. That is just a fact, we have to do that to be there. We have had 4 chances and come up short on all of them.

Penn State beat us 2 times last year when they were a terrible team, neither game was that competitive. Now, PSU is playing better than last year, so why would I expect a different result? Do you?

I was saying that for us to expect a 6-5 finish after a 3-4 start is just being optimistic without any analysis behind it. What makes you believe that we will? Sure, heck, I could say, yea, we’re going to finish 9-3, go Cats! We’re awesome, we’re in the tourney, Carmody rules, Shurna for all-American, but that’s just being a ‘fan’.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 21, 2011 3:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Like I said

no issues with moderation. And this board is really whatever you want it to be (or what Rodger wants, I suppose). But I feel like you’re letting past failures cloud present successes. This is a team that has scored over 90 points 6 times this year. Have we ever done that before, regardless of schedule? You say that Penn State is better, well, so are we. We’re actually probably more improved than Penn State. And again, like I said, we may very well drop a game to a team like them.

But really what either of us are doing is speculating. Neither of us can say with any convictions “we’re going to win out” or “we’re going to lose out,” to throw around extremes. This is simply because we’re so obviously way better than 100th and way worse than 20th. We don’t really have any comparison.

If you want to look for analysis, look at the MSU games. But for Shurna going ghost and a bad coaching decision, we’ve won both of those. So that tells me that wherever MSU is, we’re not too far behind. I’d peg them at about 25-30, just by what I’ve seen them do against top teams and against us. That probably lands us between 35 and 40, right where KenPom has us.

I guess what it boils down to is you see nothing to be exited about, and I see nothing to be depressed about. We’re both right, ultimately, but it’s a matter of attitude, I think.

by pfoley on Jan 21, 2011 4:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Some agreement...

PFoley, I think we can just agree to disagree, and that is totally cool. The beauty of sports is the results will show who was correct and who wasn’t.

Your last line says it best, I’m a hater on this team/coach/program, and you are not. That’s ok, b/c hopefully, we shall meet in the middle.

Just one quick point, I don’t like when people say, if/would/should in sports, b/c for every if we do about the MSU game (and there are many), there are if/would/should for other games. I hate Bill Parcells, but his line of, “You are what your record is” does have validity.

Have a great weekend PFoley, and I will see you on the message boards after the Wisconsin game. You are predicting a win, and I’m predicting a loss, but hopefully, we’ll have some good analysis on Sunday. Take Care.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 21, 2011 4:06 PM CST up reply actions  

oh no

I’m not predicting a win. I’d LOVE to see a win, and think it’s probably a toss up of this and the Minnesota game to be our best chance for a win, but I refuse to bet on this game.

You’re right, your record is the be all and end all. I’m just trying to get a feel for the talent we’ve got, and it looks comparable to that of MSU.

Enjoy your weekend, and I’ll probably be watching football all day so may or may not come back to survey the damage :P

by pfoley on Jan 21, 2011 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Also...

This team looked better during the 2008-2009 season when they beat MSU and PU on the road to finish 8-10. This team has looked great against REALLY bad teams. You are correct, we have not lost to any bad teams, but which bad team is even a candidate. We have the worst non-conf SOS in the conference, so our only chance to play a BCS caliber school was St Johns’ (loss) and GT (a win), and GT has really struggled. So, while NU hasn’t lost, they have played such weak competition that it is hard to praise them.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 21, 2011 3:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Class of 2002-

Suppose that last weekend @ MSU Juice, instead of tripping, had made a layup at the end of regulation. In that scenario, you wouldn’t have attempted any of these inane arguments. This is not to mention the inability to box out Draymond a few weeks earlier. In other words, it’s foolish to base your entire line of reasoning on the result of one or two plays.
And let me guess: your next recourse to try to prove your point will include the word “clutch” and/or “choke”.

by Brad Silverman on Jan 21, 2011 4:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Re our terrible SOS

We all agree our scheduling was horrible.

by Brad Silverman on Jan 21, 2011 4:13 PM CST up reply actions  

For every scenario...

that you have NU messing up in the MSU game, MSU could come back with an answer of, “what if, this free throw went in, or that 3-pointer went in”. My analysis (or what you call inane arguments) is based on our results after 7 Big Ten games. I do not bring up clutch or choke, b/c the game is 40 minutes, you have to finish it out, and 2 points in the first minute equals 2 points in the last minute, so no reason to discuss clutchness.

So, to say if/would/should in the MSU games, other teams could say that as well, any close game has 100+ plays that could sway the result one way or the other, so I don’t really do that.

Also, are you the Brad Silverman that lived in Allison w/me in 1999-2000? If so, what up! I lived down the hall from you!

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 21, 2011 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

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