Is Northwestern underachieving, or just finding their own level?
by Loretta8 on Jan 27, 2011 12:01 PM CST
in Northwestern Wildcats Basketball
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PrintAs you probably already know, Northwestern lost 81-70 at Minnesota last night. It certainly wasn't due to a lack of effort, as NU did an admirable job on the boards, somehow out-rebounding the Gophers' gigantic front line, but cold 3-point shooting, excessive fouling, and an inability to keep the bigger and more athletic Minnesota bigs out of the paint doomed them to another loss. Disappointing, but not really surprising.
Your Wildcats now sit at 13-7 (3-6), and with the seemingly invincible Ohio State Buckeyes coming to town Saturday, a third straight loss appears inevitable, and NU's NCAA chances are on life support. This turn of events has left most NU fans in a deep depression, wondering why a promising season has gone down the tubes. Lots of theories have been thrown out there (the majority of them blaming the entire collapse on Bill Carmody), but in my opinion, the answer is easy: the players just aren't that good.
Each of the past two years, most NU fans spent the entire off-season convincing themselves that this was going to be the year the Wildcats finally broke through and made the dance. And both years, before the season even started, Kevin Coble was lost for the year. Last season, the loss of Coble caused most fans to immediately write off any chance at the NCAAs, but after a strong non-conference performance and the out-of-nowhere emergence of John Shurna as an All-Big Ten candidate, optimism suddenly took over. We all know what happened; NU fell apart down the stretch, going just 2-4 against the terrible bottom three Big Ten teams, and barely made the NIT.
Fast forward to this off-season, where optimism still reigned: Coble was returning, highly-touted freshman JerShon Cobb was incoming, and NU was only losing defensive wizard but offensive black hole Jeremy Nash. With that lineup, they'd have their best team ever and have a good chance to make the slightly expanded NCAA tournament. Then Coble chose to forgo his senior season, which should have led most NU fans to conclude that the tournament was a long shot.
But it didn't. Even though NU was running out basically the same team that went 7-11 in a mediocre Big Ten, a lot of people still thought that NU could challenge for a bid. This might have been somewhat feasible had last year's top Big Ten teams lost a lot of key guys, but that wasn't the case at all: the 6 teams who finished ahead of NU last year were all projected to be at least as good this year. Yet somehow, fans expected Northwestern to compete with deeper, more talented teams led by many of the nation's best coaches. It just wasn't a realistic expectation. I know FBC has touched on this a bit (on the rare occasions he actually posts :sadface:), but it bears repeating: this Northwestern team just doesn't have enough talent to make the NCAAs. There are a few reasons why NU fans were so irrationally optimistic:
It's in our nature as Northwestern fans
In my experience, most passionate NU fans tend to lead towards being glass half full types. Given NU's historical incompetence at athletics, that may be a bit surprising, but I think for many people it's a defense mechanism; if you're going to devote hours and hours of your life to caring about a sports team, you want to at least believe they have a chance at success, so we cling to the positives while ignoring our team's obvious flaws. For more evidence of this, look at how many people seem to think the football team has a good chance to win their division next year (as far as I know, the football team still doesn't have a defense, a running game, or an offensive line).
Lazy national media members
If you read any Purdue basketball blogs, you'll see endless whining about how the national media disrespects their beloved Boilers. Sometimes it's justified, other times it's nonsensical, but it seems to be a yearly tradition at this point (I can already picture them complaining next year about how everyone's written them off because they lost E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson; well, duh). When it comes to Northwestern, the national media usually gets it wrong too, but in the other direction. NU basketball in the last 2 seasons has gotten way way WAY more hype than they deserved, solely because of the team's awful history.
Every time it appears Northwestern will be something better than terrible, national writers everywhere churn out the same formulaic column about how NU's never made it to the NCAAs, but hey, they did host the first ever Final Four! That's the closest they've been! Keep cutting and pasting, guys. As NU was blowing out lowly Georgia Tech this year on national television (by about the same margin that Kennesaw State beat Tech), my Twitter feed exploded with national writers talking about how this would be the year. I guess everyone loves a Cinderella story, as this phenomenon isn't limited to college basketball writers; last year, Deadspin started publishing a weekly column on NU's NCAA chances, and this year, even the Wall Street Journal weighed in with the exact same article that's been written a hundred times. I guess it's good that Northwestern is getting national exposure, but it feels like all the hype has just been setting up fatally flawed NU teams and their fans for disappointment.
Confusing offensive talent with overall talent
This, to me at least, is by far the biggest reason for the irrational optimism. People see an excellent scoring trio of Shurna, Crawford and Thompson and think Northwestern has the talent to compete. Down With Goldy made this point in his preview yesterday, saying "It feels like Northwestern should be good because they do actually have some weapons." And he's right, Northwestern does have offensive weapons, and those weapons fit well into Bill Carmody's Princeton offense. The NU offense has been excellent of late, ranking as the 17th best offense in the country and 4th best in the Big Ten per KenPom, and 30th in the country last season.
But that offensive talent doesn't translate to the defensive end. Michael Thompson, due to his lack of size and athleticism, is a liability on defense against Big Ten guards (the reason Carmody hides him at the bottom of the 1-3-1). John Shurna is a good help defender, accumulating a fairly high number of steals and blocks, but he has trouble defending opposing 4's one on one; this Draft Express profile says "his biggest weaknesses athletically are his lack of physical strength and lateral quickness." Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb, despite possessing the necessary athleticism, have yet to establish themselves as good on-ball defenders (although I think Cobb could get there soon). And Luka Mirkovic is a total liability defensively; he's such a poor leaper that he's never dunked in his 3 years at NU, so he can't be a shot-blocking presence, and he has such slow feet that he can't even rotate over in time to play semi-competent help defense. As such, Northwestern ranks 141st in the country and by far the worst in the Big Ten at defense per KenPom, which is a slight improvement over last year's 169th, but is still terrible.
Ryan over at Welsh-Ryan Ramblings has long advocated that Bill Carmody hire another assistant who specializes in teaching defense. While this would probably help a little, I don't think it would come close to solving the problem. Carmody has said many times that being good at offense comes down to making shots; you can draw up brilliant play after brilliant play, but if the shots don't go in, it doesn't matter. The same principle applies on defense; it doesn't matter how hard you play, or how well-coached you are, if you can't stop opposing players from driving by you, you won't get stops on defense. And this Northwestern roster, despite having a lot of guys who are very good scorers, just does not possess the talent to guard guys one on one.
I believe that is the biggest reason why Carmody uses the somewhat gimmicky 1-3-1 so much; he knows for a fact that his team will usually get torched trying to guard Big Ten players one on one, so he gives teams a different look that partially neutralizes athletic opponents and instead forces them to beat his team with passing and outside shooting. He's well aware of the flaws in a 1-3-1 (as Rodger aptly pointed out in his Michigan recap, NU abused Michigan's 1-3-1 the one possession they faced it), but he believes he has no other choice.
This article isn't meant to be a defense of Carmody. He's the head man, and the final won-loss record is his responsibility. The current roster almost certainly isn't good enough to make the NCAAs, and that's on him. Also, the questionable decisions he made in crunch time of the Michigan State games may have cost Northwestern a win or two. However, Carmody is far from the incompetent buffoon that many NU fans are making him out to be, and this team certainly isn't underachieving because of his coaching.
In college basketball, talent prevails above all else, and Northwestern is at best the 7th most talented team in the Big Ten. So if Northwestern is to finally break their NCAA drought, they simply need to get better players. Recruiting has gotten better as of late, as the coaching staff has found diamonds in the rough (Shurna, Coble) and out-recruited other BCS teams for guys everyone knew would be good (Crawford, Cobb). But even still, Northwestern isn't good enough finish in the top of the Big Ten, and until they get better players, they'll keep falling short of the tournament.
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Don't even get me started on Purdue fans....
I usually am not one to criticize fans of opposing teams, but I can’t even look at Hammer & Rails anymore – every time one of their posters whines about “no respect” or complains about officiating, a kitten cries. There are a lot of crying kittens in West Lafayette. Seriously, as long as you make the tournament, it’ll be fine (sorry NU fans!). Remember, there is a PLAYOFF at the end of college basketball season. Sure, your seeding matters, but seriously, you don’t have to cry and scream every time someone projects you as a 3 seed instead of a 2 seed.
/Rant
h & r is the most reasoned of the bunch
you should see some of the other ones. one (that will remain nameless) was bombarding various national writers on twitter talking shit because Purdue was blowing out Alcorn State. seriously. the purdue womens team would probably be 10 point favorites over them.
Great post
I think you’re spot on in your analysis of the roster. Thanks for providing some of the best NU bball coverage out there. I really enjoy your level-headed takes, and I find myself turning to SoP as my primary NU sports fodder. It’s a refreshing change from the hyperventilating hysterics at LTP after every game.
Excellent post, but ...
Terrific, provocative post. And I agree with most of it. But in addressing lack of talent, you’ve ignored lack of effort. In several of these losses — Illinois and Wisconsin, in particular — the lack of mental toughness was obvious and painful. There’s no excuse for that; in fact, given our general IQ edge, there’s no reason we shouldn’t be the best conditioned, hardest-working, most mentally tough team on the floor, game after game. We saw that last year, until they simply ran out of gas toward the end. But we’re not seeing it at all this year, and that’s on BC.
i sort of agree
but Wisconsin and Illinois are both much better than us, and were shooting the ball really well to boot. we definitely quit once we got down by 15 or so, which is very disappointing because we didnt do that last year, except in the second penn state loss. however, i think we were losing those 2 games either way.
Great points...
Of all the NU blogs, I am so impressed by this one. Some outstanding thoughts/writing from the great school of Medill. I agree w/many of your points, but here are some of my thoughts, some of which I have shared before.
The overall NU basketball program has reached its peak under Bill Carmody. Whether it is coaching or recruiting, it is getting done. I don’t think it makes sense to wonder how Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich, or Larry Brown would do with this team, b/c they do not coach this team. Also, it doesn’t make sense to wonder how Bill Carmody would coach a team with OSU or Kentucky type talent. Both of which are absolute conjecture. Bill Carmody is in charge of recruiting and coaching, and the overall combination in 11 seasons has not ever produced a bubble quality NCAA Tournament team, no winning seasons in the Big Ten, 2 NIT appearances (both 1 and done), no Big Ten tournament semi-finals, and truly no hope of next year is the year.
A very close friend of mine who has been a fan since 1996 (and was one of the founders of the NU Basketball Rowdies) had the best description of this team. We are a ‘Vedran Vukasic’ team. What that means is that NU is hoping for an upset, hoping for a big win, but never walking onto the court and expecting to beat good teams. As of 9 games in, NU has no chance to make the tournament based on its given record and performance; sure, NU could go 9-0 the rest of the way, but getting even 4 wins will be a challenge for this team. Sure, NU could perhaps beat Illinois or even OSU, but it will not mean anything in the long-run. Do not get me wrong, it would be exciting, but it is the equivalent of Providence beating Villanova, Seton Hall beating Syracuse, or UIC beating Illinois, all great wins, but doing nothing for a team’s chance at the tournament and truly proving to be a fluke result or a one-night aberration.
In my time of being a NU fan (1998 and on), I have heard all excuses, majority of which are not true this season. We are too young, too small, too white, too unathletic, too slow, not enough depth, offensively challenged, defensively challenged, etc, etc. While this team is a more mature, larger, more athletic, has more depth, and stronger offensively, it still is not enough for this team to be compete in the Big Ten and truly expect a top 6 finish. Would Kevin Coble and Kyle Rowley helped this team, absolutely, would it have made a huge difference (i.e. more than 1 Big Ten win), highly doubtful.
For me it is frustrating to really see no substantial progress for a team that has had some national attention/spotlight for the past 2 years. You can guarantee NU will not have the “This year could be the year” type stories this offseason, if anything NU’s poor performances in some marquee games (Illinois/Wisconsin) has made NU more a joke from the national media (Doug Gottlieb, Pat Forde, Andy Katz, etc), where comments like ‘Welcome back to the NIT’ are what people are saying about NU.
It is interesting b/c NU has lost close games (MSU home/away), blowouts (road Ill, home Wisc), and somewhat close games where NU was there but just not enough (road Purdue, road Minn). If NU has lost all those games by 1 point, the team would still be 3-6, and everyone would be dissecting individual plays, players, coaching decisions, etc. But due to the fact that NU has had 4 games where they were relatively outclassed by top 15-25 caliber teams, it provides no real hope of gosh, we lost a close game, but we can beat this team the next time around. It’s more hmm, we’re just not good enough.
I live in Washington, D.C. and have quite a few NU alums/friends that I see here, and while no one believes that NU Football is going to the Rose Bowl anytime soon, there is an excitement around the team, b/c there is a chance of a 5-3 and perhaps a great 6-2 type finish for the team. With NU basketball, my friends (many of which went to a considerable # of games while at NU), don’t even discuss NU hoops, b/c the team has no tangible ability to make the tournament.
NU could win the NIT, and it would be an accomplishment, but bear nothing on next year’s chance to make the tournament. Just take a look at the past NIT winners, it does not translate at all to success the following year, similar to college fb bowl games.
I really enjoy this blog, and probably just will not comment too much more, just b/c there is so little to say about this team. Next year will be very similar to this past year, and maybe 2 years out might prove something different, but that seems very far away and based on the past, I doubt it would be anything great.
I’m sorry I am so negative, but I’ve seen this story many times, and it seems to end the same.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 27, 2011 1:58 PM CST reply actions
thanks for the kind words everyone
appreciate it.
don't know what they're talking about
i thought this post sucked
by Rodger Sherman on Jan 28, 2011 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
yeah, well i thought your mom sucked
take that!
Disappointing, but very true
On the twitter feed, everybody was complaining about what the players on the court were (or weren’t) doing. I even saw a #liftweights hashtag. What Loretta said is exactly right. The players aren’t good enough right now, and this team certainly lacks the depth needed to make it to the NCAAs.
That’s where I put the blame on Carmody. I know he’s not stupid, but I agree with NU Alum’s comment about him getting this program about as far as he can. He’s in his eleventh year, and the only good recruits we’ve gotten have been a result of Tavaras Hardy. Carmody recruits weak foreign guys. Obviously, he has one of the hardest jobs in the country in terms of trying to get players to come to Evanston to freeze their asses off, do work, and party with less than attractive females, but it’s not impossible. Coach Fitz has shown it’s possible to recruit players who can compete at this level. Guys like Crawford and Cobb have shown that they’re willing to come here. We need to get more of those recruits on a more consistent basis.
That said, excellent analysis. This team probably wasn’t going to make the tournament from the start.
by WestsideBrandon on Jan 27, 2011 4:36 PM CST reply actions
No hot girls?
I disagree.
—Girl in a top 3 sorority
Oops. This isn’t CollegeACB.
I think, Brandon, that you’ve identified exactly what is going right in NU Basketball… The Crawfords and Cobbs of the world are beginning to show up at NU. Say that it’s a product of Hardy, product of Carmody, whatever, but Carmody’s doing the coaching and recruiting necessary to put the best team possible on the floor. These results won’t come overnight, but we’re on the right track. I think we just need patience.
Of course, that’s easier said than done.
wait
can we turn this into college acb?
HOTTEST ASIANS ON THE MEN’S BASKETBALL TEAM
by Rodger Sherman on Jan 28, 2011 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
Eleven years is a long time.
I’m impatient. I’ll admit that. But I just think that Carmody has been given enough time and all he has to show for it are NIT appearances. That just doesn’t cut it for me, and it shouldn’t for a world class institution such as Northwestern.
Yes, we’re on the right track. I just think that we’re going pretty damn slow when the process could be expedited.
by WestsideBrandon on Jan 28, 2011 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
Yup...
And NIT appearances this year given the expanded tournament really means nothing.
While we have improved, I do not know if we are continuing to improve. With the contract extension, it seems like we are locked into 3 years more of this no matter how poor his record is. Would NU fire Carmody if he went 0-18 in the Big Ten, nope, NU has only fired 1 coach in the past 13 years (Women’s Soccer Coach after the ‘Hazing’ party), so it’s not the type of school that fires coaches. Recall he went 2-14 and followed it up with a 1-17 season and still was not fired.
So, 3 more years of 5 to 8 win Big Ten seasons. Woohoo!
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 28, 2011 11:34 AM CST up reply actions
because theres a whole 3 extra ncaa bids
an NIT appearance now means nothing?
I know it's a stretch...
but when the NCAA Tourney added 3 teams, it was primarily to give BCS teams more tourney participants (I know that is an assumption, but I don’t see the NCAA really wanting more mid-majors). Of the 6 BCS conferences this year, only 3 are solidly good; the Pac 10, SEC, and ACC are having severely down years. So, if 3 teams are added for 3 conferences (Big Ten, Big East, Big XII), I do think the NIT is watered down, b/c essentially each conference has another team in the field. Look, I am not saying it means nothing, I take the back, but it is devalued. Plus, considering how weak the NCAA teams are in general this year, I think the NIT is a pretty weak tourney this year.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 29, 2011 3:21 PM CST up reply actions
What a horrible post
jk.
What is horrible is this: http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2011/01/concussion-might-sideline-shurna-for-ohio-st.html
The problem with this team is the same with the last 10 – there are 5 or 6 division 1 players on the roster, and no big men that know how to use a drop step. It is impossible to win with that kind of depth, or lack there of.
The suggestions that this team didn’t need Kevin Coble were astounding. That team would have been ok this year with him (carmody running last second inbound plays for luka, notwithstanding).
The ankle injury has changed shurna as a player. A month ago he dunks that ball…last night he tries a herky-jerky lay-up and gets pile drived into the standard.
Cobb and Crawford are more athletic than past players. Shurna can be a transcendant type player when healthy. But 3 real players with nothing inside might as well be irrelevant in the Big 10. They could mop up the WAC though.
I love how everyone wonders why this team can’t rebound. They play a defense with a 5’8" guy under the hoop and wings sprinting away from the hoop at shooters.
I’m rambling. Net of it is I agree with this article, but being wrong about half your roster with n big men on the radar is on no one other than the coach. 10 years without a guy that can drop step. That is astounding.
no...
its a whole team of division one players. that’s evidenced by the fact the b-team can handle itself easily against siu-edwardsville.
big ten players… that’s a different story.
by Rodger Sherman on Jan 28, 2011 10:46 AM CST up reply actions
Well said..
We have Division 1 players, but not Big Ten caliber players. Not now, and not enough of them in the future. On NU’s team page linked below on ESPN, they show the rankings of our 3 recruits coming in, 88, 88, and 85; well, take a look at other Big Ten teams, not only the good ones, but ones that we are ‘better’ than, we are not even out-recruiting them. So, there is no real hope in the future.
Like I keep saying, our recruits are better than the past, but it’s still not good enough.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 28, 2011 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
Let me just say
This blog makes me feel so much better about being an NU basketball fan. I remember the days in the early 2000’s where we were just constantly losing and I had no place to discuss, vent, ramble, critique, etc. The commentators and admins here are nothing short of spectacular and Rodger Sherman’s humor is fabulous.
That being said, the point about Carmody maxing out his potential is the most valid, and the reason he should be gone after this season. Yes, we are finally getting guys like Crawford and Cobb to come here, but we are still cannot get any type of athletic big man. (Side note, I am 5 ft 7, but I do not understand how Rowley, Murkovic, Curletti, etc. never dunk the ball. Isn’t just as easy as putting the ball in the hoop? Makes no sense.)
Anyway, thanks for this blog.
So what's the Carmody replacement solution?
I’ll stipulate to the point that Carmody maybe has taken the team as far as he can. And I’ll stipulate to the idea that it’s not coaching per se, but recruiting where he cannot get us over the hump.
So what’s our solution? Who’s a quality replacement that we could lure here?
Also, I should point out — if Phillips REALLY were to get rid of Carmody, he should make retaining Tavaras Hardy a REQUIREMENT for whoever the next coach is. Solid/great recruiter for NU….team Hardy up with a good coach who is also a good recruiter — the latter is Carmody’s weakness, IMHO — and we could see some great things start to happen at NU, particularly with facilities improvements, etc.
(And on that facilities improvement idea — I really hope they consider/explore an on-campus facility replacement for Welsh-Ryan. It would improve student attendance, make a great atmosphere, and really energize the program/campus, all while freeing up space for football/baseball/softball improvements up near Ryan Field. I mean, it’s one thing as a student to get up to Ryan Field 6-7 Saturdays during the fall…it’s another to make it up to Welsh-Ryan for 15+ home games in the dead of winter, mainly at night. Put basketball on campus, and that ceases to be a problem.)
blomquist gym
more than serviceable for im games. can probably fit a student section in there if you get rid of the girls on the elliptical machines.
by Rodger Sherman on Jan 28, 2011 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
and asian dance groups
and occasional badminton players that kick you off the court so they can play badminton
and those kellogg tools
by Rodger Sherman on Jan 28, 2011 12:06 PM CST up reply actions
Play the games in Tech
Schedule them for some random basement classroom. The opposing teams will get so lost trying to find it that they’ll have to forfeit. We will go 29-0.
by Herman on Jan 28, 2011 3:09 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Very well stated post Loretta.
I have said it before as you just stated, we are just not talented enough to compete in the top half of the conference, and we may never be, doesn’t seem to be a priority for the school.
Having said that my take is we can always hope which we do, just do not take too seriously, otherwise disappointment will result.
Agree they should sit Shurna tomorrow.
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