Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Game Prediction Thread Time!
by Rodger Sherman on Oct 7, 2011 12:45 PM CDT
in 2011 Northwestern Wildcats Football
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PrintHi. Yes I hacked u LOL. You are the most disgraceful person in the whole world you sucked at blogging during our whole relationship! You are nothing but a liar and a maniuplator and I hope that *your readers* don't think otherwise. But don't think that what's done in the dark will ALWAYS come to the light.
Tell me, Rodger's readers, how do you find out what Sippin' on Purple's staff thinks will happen in tomorrow's game against Michigan?
MountainTiger (First foray into predictin things, y'all!)
Northwestern has the misfortune of playing Michigan in a week where the second best team in the Big Ten has had the chance to work out early season offensive kinks but before Denard Robinson has had the chance to wear down under the wear and tear of the season. Offensively, I expect Northwestern to be able to move the ball decently even without Trumpy; while Trumpy was the clear number one back, I like what I've seen of Treyvon Green, and Adonis Smith should be ready to resume a larger role in the offense. This leaves things up to the defense. They will contain the Michigan run game effectively, but the combination of Denard Robinson's mobility and a shaky secondary makes me extremely nervous. Michigan will get some big plays when Robinson drops back to pass, so the key for Northwestern is to force turnovers and match scores. In the end, Robinson combines at least one ugly interception with some highlight reel scrambles and long passes as Michigan wins.
Michigan, 35, Northwestern, 24
Herman
Last week, Loretta8 predicted that the Cats would pull out a win against Illinois against all odds, and for about three quarters, his call was looking pretty good. I'm going to say here that he was off by a week, and that this will be the game NU defies expectations to notch an improbable win. This obviously contradicts all logic-- our secondary is a mess, our starting RB is gone for the year, Persa may or may not still be gimpy, and I have nightmares of Denard Robinson running untouched through our defense for 274 yards. But with our backs against the wall and nobody giving us much of a chance, that's when we tend to do our best. Hopefully this time when we race out to a 28-10 lead against the Wolverines, Fitz and Co. will figure out how to lock down, so that the game is in the refrigerator, the door is closed, the lights are out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard, and the Jell-O's jiggling.
Prediction: NU starts out like it's got a fire lit under its ass, defense bends but doesn't break, and we manage to hold on for a win.
Northwestern, 34, Michigan, 30
Loretta8
Sadly, Northwestern is in for a beatdown tomorrow night. One, there is no way in the world their ragtag defense will be able to slow down the potent Michigan offense. The NU secondary has been abused through the air the only two times they've faced FBS teams that try to pass, and if the safeties don't crowd the line of scrimmage like they did against Illinois, Denard Robinson will run wild. The only way Northwestern holds Michigan under 30 is if Michigan commits a lot of dumb, unforced turnovers or if Denard gets hurt.
So on offense, Northwestern will have to be near-perfect to stay in the game, and since Mike Trumpy is out and Dan Persa's status is uncertain, it's hard to imagine Northwestern putting up a ton of points against an improved Michigan defense. By the end of the night, Ryan Field will be three-quarters Michigan fans, up from 50% to start the game.
Michigan, 49, Northwestern, 17
Rodger
I see no conceivable way Northwestern stops Denard Robinson. This is the No. 12 team in the nation for a reason. I said on Wildcat Report that previewing Denard vs. Northwestern's defense feels like being a character in Final Destination: I know what's going to happen and there's really nothing I can do about it. Don't get me wrong, this is going to be a close game: with Dan Persa, Northwestern's offense should put up points, even against a great defense thus far - I chalk this up to lack of competition - but Michigan's defense won't need many stops to pull out the W.
Michigan, 45, Northwestern, 35
Tell us what y'all think, and Go Cats.
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Michigan 42 - Northwestern 31
A Positive Note (that I recently tweeted): Northwestern is 2-0 vs Michigan when Greg Mattison is their DC (1995-96).
--
JHodges
HailToPurple
UM 42, NU 38
It’ll be close, and I think we might be giving Denard a little too much credit in the air. If he can throw effective jump balls to his WRs and scramble like there’s no tomorrow, it could be a long night.
Call me skeptical, though, as besides the ONE quarter against ND, I haven’t seen anything that should really impress me with him as a passer. If our LBs can spy effectively and contain Shoelace, we could make it a damn fun one.
69 votes and 3 replies.
Is the SoP fan base already jaded after 4 games? Wow.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 2:16 PM CDT reply actions
Not jaded
Just realistic. We can win this game… but odds are we won’t.
Ohh I agree, but...
I’m a little surprised that for NU’s home opener against a marquee opponent that is in the Top 15, there wouldn’t be more traffic on a prediction thread. It makes me wonder, do NU fans want to make a prediction if it is an expected loss?
BTW, best screenname on this board, BangNBlame. Love it.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions
maybe I have to stop adding cowriters
less people to comment
by Rodger Sherman on Oct 7, 2011 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, it's more fun to comment when we're winning
Kind of like how it’s more fun to drink when we’re winning.
Glad you like the handle. Big R.E.M. fan here.
I think the best is when there is disagreement on the board.
If everyone thinks NU will win or lose, there is not much to debate. I guess when Iowa or PSU comes around, we’ll have something to talk about.
Also, yea, Automatic for the People is one of my fav albums of all time.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Listening to you all season
it’s hard not to be.
I kid (mostly). Not jaded, but concerned that we don’t have the defensive wherewithal and the ability on offense to win a shootout. Excited as hell to watch us go for it, though! Go ’Cats!
No, I know.
Look, I know that for many of you NU fans, it’s annoying to hear me constantly say Fitz is overrated and Carmody should be fired. But, I wish there was higher standards, and people didn’t always find an excuse for NU athletics.
I have ZERO doubt that NU could be an elite quality B1G ath dept with the right people in charge.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I have zero doubt...
….that NU is on the way to being an elite B1G athletic department with (most) of the personnel we currently have in place.
(I’m not a Carmody hater by any stretch, but I can see arguments why we’d want to replace him and believe those have some validity. But I don’t think you’ll find many athletic departments in the B1G building towards longer term success/improvement than NU with Phillips, Fitz, Amonte-Hiller, Pollard, McKeown, Fuchs, Goss, Drohan, Lenahan, Pariano, etc., and the excellent marketing department led by Mike Polisky).
Some agreement/some disagreement.
Amonte-Hiller is another level. Pollard has yet to get to a Final 4, McKeown, Fuchs, Goss, Drohan, and Pariano all excellent. I’m not the biggest Fitz/Carmody/Phillips guy, but that has been belabored many times.
But, I do think NU is trending positive more than negative, but there are some things that just hold NU back w/lack of winning.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
NU 42 - Michigan 20
A couple thoughts on why Northwestern is a horrible matchup for Michigan, and why NU will win:
1) Michigan’s defense has obviously improved by leaps and bounds. But that improvement has, in large part, been on forcing turnovers. Against Western Michigan, they forced 3 turnovers (leading to 14 Michigan points). Against Notre Dame, they forced 4 turnovers (leading to 7 Michigan points). Against EMU, they forced 2 turnovers (leading to 7 Michigan points). Against San Diego State, they forced 3 turnovers (leading to 7 Michigan points). Against Minnesota, they racked up 2 turnovers (leading to 14 Michigan points).
Those turnovers? They won’t be there against Northwestern. We have ONE turnover on the season in four games (the Colter INT against BC; I’m not counting the end-of-game multi-lateral fumble against Illinois). I mean, every team that has played Michigan gave up as many/more turnovers in their game with the Wolverines THAN WE HAVE ALL SEASON. Even if you ignore the points those turnovers prevented, Michigan (a) loses to a Notre Dame team that protects the ball better, and (b) has MUCH tighter games against San Diego State and Eastern Michigan. Oh, and those offenses they were facing? Not exactly world beating — Notre Dame is 30th in the nation, WMU is 50th, SDSU is 51st, EMU is 97th, and Minny is (gasp) 104th.
On the flipside, Michigan has been pretty generous GIVING AWAY the ball — Denard has thrown 6 INTS already this season — more than Persa threw all last year and this year so far combined. NU will force Denard to pass (much like they did last week taking away Illini’s running game), and if he does, he’s more likely than Scheelhaase to turn it over.
2. Persa. I can’t stress this enough, but he changes the ENTIRE complexion of this game, and the Northwestern team. Not the . With the injury to Trumpy, Michigan’s suspect secondary, and the general effectiveness of Michigan’s D-line in forcing fumbles from RBs, you can expect our offense to be much more tilted towards the pass (I hope). Persa can sustain long drives with the pass without turning the ball over — it’s practically his M.O. at this point. Those long drives will (a) keep Denard off the field, (b) tire out their defense, © keep our defense rested, (d) force Michigan into longer drives/worse field position when/if we don’t score.
3. Special teams: FACT – Michigan has not had good special teams for awhile now. Last season they were terrible, this season they’re better, but still not good. UM is currently 103rd nationally in average kickoff return yards with 18.43 — Northwestern is 33rd with 23.33. Michigan is 59th in average punt returns with 8.43 yards per return, while Northwestern is 8th (yes, 8th NATIONALLY) with a 17.33 average punt return. In a game featuring strong offenses going against weak/untested defenses, doesn’t it seem like special teams MIGHT play a factor? Isn’t Venric Mark due for a huge kickoff/punt return?
4. Intangibles: Night game at Ryan Field in front of a sellout. First game with students in class. Michigan playing on the road for the 1st time all season, a week before they face Michigan State. The Denard Ex tweeting controversy. Dan Persa without the rust from just having returned. A Northwestern team that needs the win, frankly, much more than Michigan does. A team that put up 35 points against (and ran effectively, too) what I think we can all agree is a tougher Illinois defense on the road, facing an untested Michigan defense that is weak in the secondary, and whose success is predicated on the turnover (which Northwestern doesn’t provide). Fitz fired up, the team fired up, and big-time recruits visiting and/or making their decision on Northwestern….
NU 42 – Michigan 20.
Appropriate...
…since I anticipate being fat, drunk, and content after Northwestern beats the Wolverines on Saturday.
I stared at this for at least 30 seconds
thinking there had to be a deeper meaning.
Then I understood.
I go to Northwestern.
O to the M to the G.
First it was 10-2, now it is beating Michigan by 22 points. You might say I’m a one trick pony about Fitz/Carmody, but 100% of my criticism is based on the facts (i.e. record).
This is insane Chad. I mean I love you as an optimist, but seriously, don’t you feel a little foolish saying this. We lost to Army, lost a 18 point lead to Ill. Wow.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
No.
I don’t feel foolish.
2 road games, one of which we didn’t have Persa at all and the other in which he spent most of the time the lead was evaporating on the bench dinged up do not DEFINE the Cats as a team. Persa makes a HUGE difference. You saw that as we built the 28-10 lead.
There are plenty of teams I think Northwestern can/will lose to if we played them tomorrow (see: Nebraska, MSU, probably Iowa although I’m through ever predicting what happens in those games). But a Michigan team whose new-found defensive success (and let’s be clear, they’re definitely improved) has largely been the result of forcing turnovers (something we don’t do), led by a QB running a read-option running attack similar to the one we just held under 100 yards (keep in mind, Denard’s a better runner than Scheelhaase undoubtedly, but the Illini have a better stable of RBs/bigger-tougher O-line than Michigan) who has (to put it charitably) question marks about his passing ability (6 INTS), playing their first game on the road, against a Northwestern squad that gets Persa for (preumably) the whole game and has it’s back against the wall?
Why is that crazy? Why is that foolish?
Ok, you did convince me some.
Chad, everytime you say something, I am shocked, but then I hear your logic and you do sway me. I must admit, those are all valid points. But, NU lost to Army. No one is debating how impactful Persa is, but to change the game that much.
Also, remember, you said before the BC game (and correctly I must admit) that Persa’s absence will have no impact on the game, b/c McCall is SUCH a good QB coach. Even Loretta8 had to agree w/me after you said that.
I’m going to call you on Monday to either say you are right or call to say that no more absurd optimism from you.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions
No.
Why would I quit being an optimist? Why?
We lost to Army by 7 points. We lost to Illinois by 3. BOTH on the road. You’re telling me Persa healthy/playing all of those games WOULDN’T make the difference? OF COURSE IT WOULD HAVE. Hell, we probably beat Army if we had DiNardo and Arnfelt healthy, much less Persa (who, let me remind you, just went 10-14 for 4 TDs against a pretty highly hyped Illinois defense).
And please don’t call me. I have no interest in talking to you about comments on a blog, where I root for and support my team and use real observations to support my (perhaps) inflated opinion/optimistic hopes for them.
Simma down.
Chad, I’m not mad at you at all. It would be for friendly banter.
No one is disagreeing w/you about Persa, but YOU said that Persa’s impact wouldn’t be as great b/c of McCall. You said that, not me.
I don’t know if Persa was in the game NU would win, what if fumbled, got intercepted, played poorly or the other team played differently, the bottom line is we can continue to play IF games, but NU is 2-2 with this team. Injuries are a part of sports and definitely a big part of football, so NU is 2-2 and not looking good right now, so that’s why your 22 point victory prediction seems a little bold to me.
I like that you are the optimist on this board, but don’t you feel it gets a little much? Clearly not. NU 42/Michigan 20. Did you post that on Rivals and your other B1G blogs? What was the reception there? Nevermind, I know what it was, people know you love the Cats.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Not what I said.
I said McCall could/would coach up Colter so that he’d be ready, and the loss of Persa for the BC game wouldn’t be the determining factor in who won or lost. And it wasn’t — Colter played well enough to lead us to a win.
I never denied Persa was better than Colter, or that “Persa’s impact wouldn’t be as great b/c of McCall” (a statement which makes absolutely no sense, and thus is not something I’d write).
And yes, I love the Cats.
Against flawed teams (like Michigan), yes, I’ll probably more optimistic about our chances.
Doesn’t make my opinion any better or worse than anyone else’s, including someone like yourself who (pretty clearly) prefers to see everything Northwestern does, win or lose, in a negative light.
As for my prediction...
…on OTE earlier today, I said NU 42-Michigan 28. So if it makes you feel better/more comfortable, accept that as my prediction.
OH, and 10-2...
…was based on what we were hearing about Persa and his health. If you had told me Persa wouldn’t play until Illinois (and miss a quarter or so of action in that game), that Trumpy would be out for a game and injured/lost for the season against Illinois, that we’d be down 2 rotation DL when we played Army….I would have revised that number down.
I mean, injuries happen in football. I get that. But we’ve been pretty snake-bitten early this season (even against Illinois, Carpenter/Arnold were still dinged up in the secondary, which may have made the difference in the game)….and now we’re apparently getting healthier (with the exception of Trumpy, which legitimately sucks, but may help us to the extent it pushes McCall and the offense into a more pass-wacky attack).
Christ
Here I’m about to pick the Cats, and then I read Chad’s hysterically optimistic reasoning behind the pick, and I’m forced to rethink.
Ok, I’m gonna stick with the Cats in an upset, but it’ll be close- 38-35, just like last week, with the home team winning again. I don’t have any reasoned basis for it, outside of the fact that I think we’re a little better than we’ve shown the past few weeks, and Michigan is not as good as they’ve seen over that time. Really it’s just a gut feeling, which have worked out ok for me in the past.
Just to be clear.
I have no issues w/fans thinking NU will win, that is totally possible, but I’m still getting over 42-20, holy shit.
Chad, wasn’t Fitz supposed to fired up for ILL? Wasn’t Fitz firing ‘everyone’ up during the bye week? I mean, you seem to totally ignore what is happening on the field. Seriously Chad, 22 point win against an undefeated top 15 team after NU has lost 2 straight. Hell, just say it right now, NU will finish the season 10-2 and play in the B1G champ game while you are at it.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Ignore what happens on the field?
Where did I do that? All my reasons were based on watching the actual games, and what happened.
You’re ignoring the Persa factor. You’re ignoring the fact that Michigan’s defense will not be as successful against the Cats since the Cats are a team that does not turn the ball over. You’re ignoring the good job our defense did stopping a similar Illini rushing attack, and the fact that our Scheelhaase (who scorched our secondary) is a MUCH more accurate/better passer than Robinson with a MUCH better WR-target in Jenkins than anyone Michigan has.
Neither one of us are playing in this game, neither one of us played the game….what makes your opinion any more valid than anyone else’s? Why is it absurd to think we’ll win in a blow out against an overranked, untested, weak-in-the-secondary Michigan team playing on the road for the first time all season, in a game they EASILY could be overlooking in anticipation of playing their in-state rival next week?
Look, I can back off some, but...
You only bring up the facts that say how NU could do well. Where were you watching the Army game, the ILL game? I didn’t say NU will lose 100-0, but this is a team that is HORRIBLE at defense, whether it is pass or rush defense, it doesn’t matter, the total defense is bad. Persa is excellent, and UM’s defense might be overrated, but to predict a 22 point win is kinda absurd.
NU lost to Army. 87% of NU ‘fans’ on this board think NU will lose, there is a reason for that. I hear your arguments and like I said earlier, you have swayed me some, but I think my biggest issue w/you is the complete ass whooping that NU would give Mich. If you were saying NU 38-Mich 35, I have no issue, but it’s as if you only look at facts that support your case.
Did you predict either Army or Ill loss, no, but those happened.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Oct 7, 2011 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, they happened.
With Persa on the bench when the loss was happening.
(As for the 87% of voters who voted against the Cats in that poll — you do realize Michigan fans can vote, too, and probably did? And that some fans in the 13% MIGHT just believe we could pull off a big victory too, against a team with a suspect defense/secondary, an offense that can be slowed down if you can defend the run and force Denard to throw (which increases your shot for INTs,w hich he’s thrown 6 of this season so far), in a sold-out home stadium against a team that hasn’t left its home stadium this season?)
Persa status ?
Is Dan projected to start ? and how healthy is he ? The outcome depends on his condition.
I like your optimism and rationales, Michigan is overrated right now. Chadnudj I am throwing my vote in the same column providing Persa can play the whole game if needed.
All reports are...
….that Persa is as healthy as he’s ever been. He took himself out against Illinois as a precautionary measure, but has been practicing all week.
I imagine he’ll be a little less rusty, too, after getting his feet wet against Illinois.
One more thing....
For those negative after a 2-2 start, in which we lost to 2 teams we should have beaten due to breakdowns in our pass defense and run defense, and had questions in the running game, and injuries on defense….
I present the 2009 Wildcats. Barely beat a pretty awful Eastern Michigan team (2011 equivalent — BC), lost to Syracuse due to a horrible secondary (2011 equivalent: Illinois), lost to Minnesota when they pounded us with the run (2011 equivalent: Army)….and then managed to finish with an 8-4 record and an Outback Bowl trip after our philosophy shifted to a pass-wacky attack and our defense got better.
6-2 finish included losing to Penn State because (in JoePa’s words) Mike Kafka got injured.
I mean, if anything, we should be MORE excited about 2011, simply because the 2 losses happened with Persa (more or less) out for significant parts of both games. In 2009, we didn’t “add” a player of Persa’s caliber/ability to change the entire game after the 2-2 start (although getting Wootton and McManus healthy certainly provided a boost).
If the coaching staff keeps coaching the team up (and, in my opinion, trusts Dan’s arm to lead us), there’s no reason to think we can’t finish on a similar strong streak.
Mich 31-NU 28
I haven’t posted in a while because this team is underachieving, in my opinion, and it is too frustrating to discuss all the issues. I was as high on this team as anybody this side of Chadnuj, but i was clearly wrong. Partly due to persa not playing, but mainly due to the coaching. That has een discussed ad nauseum so i will not go down that road.
I am not ready to annoit Michigan world beater status. They were very fortunate (lucky would be more accurate) to beat ND. They were dominated statistically by ND but still found a way to win. I think NU can move the ball, again assuming the coaches play to strengths (QB and WR) and not to weakness (RB)..
Two things I am hoping (praying to see tomorrow:
1) Several post routes, fly patterns, bombs over 30 yards; the UM secondary is weak and a healthy persa can pick them apart
2)DBs looking back for the ball; Robinson loves to throw the ball short and have the WR make a play on it. If the DB turns around, it’s an int.
I’m not hopeful about tomorrow but I will be watching nonetheless.
Blue 42, Purple 28
Predicted 5-7 going in, and had this as a loss. Still do. Only way we win this is if Denard’s jaded girlfriend pulls a Lorena Bobbitt while he’s sleeping tonight.
by SeattleCat on Oct 7, 2011 9:22 PM CDT via iPhone app reply actions
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