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March in December: Northwestern's Brutal Stretch (and what it means in the long run)

People deride the college basketball regular season: it doesn't mean anything, everything happens in the tourney anyway, why even bother watching. For Northwestern fans, this is no fun, since, you know, Northwestern doesn't really make the tournament much.

But if the Wildcats want to make the NCAA Tournament, the road to that appearance starts tomorrow night in Omaha. I mean, technically, it started a while back, as NU is 11 games deep, but the real fun starts now.

Let's talk about why.

Star-divide

Northwestern might have played 11 games, but it's really tough to gauge the mettle of the Cats. On the one hand, NU is 10-1 with only a single loss, which came against an undefeated Baylor squad that looks to be one of the top 15 clubs in the country. (Right now, they're ranked at No. 6, but whether they're the best team or third-best team in the Big 12 with Mizzou and Kansas in the mix is unclear.) They've got solid wins against power conference schools: LSU has looked mediocre but just handed Marquette its first loss, Georgia Tech got blown out by NU but looks like it will be middle-of-the-pack in the ACC, and Seton Hall's only loss on the season was against NU. Not bad.

On the other hand, there's signs looming. NU's one loss was a 28-point blowout that shouldn't have been that close, and in the past two games, the Cats needed a miracle 15-point second half performance featuring four made threes with no misses by walk-on Reggie Hearn to squeeze out a win over Central Connecticut State that came down to the last minute and a 9-for-12 showing from behind the line against Eastern Illinois from John Shurna that was also close in the second half.

Some would be satisfied to say that this evidence is inconclusive about whether Northwestern is a good or bad basketball team. I disagree. Looking at Northwestern, I see a tremendously inconsistent team. Northwestern lives and dies by the three-pointer, shooting 46 percent of its shot attempts from downtown. When that shot is falling, Northwestern can play with anybody. You're going to look at me like I'm crazy, but to my eyes, the perimeter defense provided by Mississippi Valley State - NU hit over 50 percent of its threes, with non-garbage time players going 19-32 - wasn't significantly worse than the defense provided by Baylor two days later - when NU shot 4-for-26, with John Shurna missing all seven attempts from downtown. I didn't see the two games this weekend, but wouldn't be surprised if the looks Shurna had Saturday - when he went 1-for-9 from downtown and finished with 12 points on 14 shots - were any worse than the looks he had Sunday - when he hit nine out of 12 and had 32 on 16 shots. What I'm trying to say is, Northwestern can beat itself or shoot itself to dramatic wins.

The time for those dramatic wins is now. @NUMensBBall highlighted the other day the rigorous nature of NU's upcoming slate: seven games, six against ranked opponents. It doesn't necessarily stop there: after that, NU will play Minnesota and Purdue, neither of whom are currently ranked, but are each top 50 Kenpom teams. Let's take a look at it:

@No. 21 Creighton, Kenpom ranking 38

@No. 2 OSU, Kenpom ranking 3

vs. Penn State, Kenpom ranking 142

vs. No. 24 Illinois, Kenpom ranking 53

@No. 19 Michigan, Kenpom ranking 43

vs. No. 20 Michigan State, Kenpom ranking 8

@No. 14 Wisconsin, Kenpom ranking 1

@ Minnesota, Kenpom ranking 41

vs. Purdue, Kenpom ranking 23

After that, NU gets a chance to play a few of the lesser teams in the B1G, but by then, much of their fate will be sealed. How NU fares in these nine games is crucial.

According to Kenpom, it isn't pretty. He sees NU losing seven of the nine, with the only wins at home against PSU and Illinois. That is to say, 1-7 in the eight games against teams he has in his top 50, 1-6 against ranked teams.

I don't think it's that bleak. I think Northwestern has a chance to beat any one of the nine teams ahead, starting with the tough non-conference road test against Creighton. Whether they will is up to the whims of their shooting. If NU can come away with four wins out of this stretch - three against good teams, one against PSU, with multiple victories over ranked teams - NU is in good shape with regards to the tourney. They'd need to finish out the season strong against weaker opponents and show up in the B1G Tournament. If not, it's not impossible, but it won't be pretty either.

It's brutal to have such a front-heavy open to conference play, plus the tough finale to the non-con. But if NU wants to go dancing, now's the time to see whether it needs to get fitted for slippers. Sorry about how awful that last sentence was.

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My thoughts.

This was discussed a little bit on the other thread. I, like everyone else, hopes that NU plays well gets strong home and a few road wins, but this is where our tournament resume will be determined. While beating Neb, PSU, Iowa, and even Minnesota produces a Big Ten win, those wins are somewhat irrelevant, b/c the NCAA tournament emphasizes wins vs top 50/top 100 opponents. It is nice to see LSU and Seton Hall on the uptick helping NU’s SOS, quality wins, etc, but it is all about the Big Ten season.

My concern/thought is this: I believe NU beats bad teams, but it is been a LONG time since I’ve seen a high quality win. I know people keep pointing to the close losses to OSU last year, but that does nothing except keep people who want ‘competitive’ games happy. I think the game I’m pointing to is home against Illinois, my thought is that NU will be 1-1 in the Big Ten at that point, but that is the game that means a lot, even if it is VERY early in the Big Ten schedule. Home, in-state rival, team that we play relatively well, ranked opponent, etc, so this will be huge.

So huge in fact that Herman and I are getting together at Blackfinn DC (near White House) on January 4th to watch the game. Drinks on me if anyone wants to join.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Dec 21, 2011 10:14 AM CST reply actions  

I'm also curious about what fans expectations are for this stretch.

I hope people don’t diminish the importance of these games and complain about how it is so tough. Good teams win tough games, and for this veteran team, this should be what they want to play for.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Dec 21, 2011 10:22 AM CST up reply actions  

high quality wins

No. 6 Purdue two years ago, No. 7 MSU on the road three years ago. Obviously you’d like them to happen more often, but they do happen sometimes when NU gets the opportunity.

by Rodger Sherman on Dec 21, 2011 12:12 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Yes.

08-09 season had 2 VERY high quality wins, road MSU, road PU.
09-10 home Purdue
10-11 nothing
11-12 nothing, yet…

But three quality wins in 3 1/2 seasons is not impressive to me.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Dec 21, 2011 12:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Suspect methodology

A survey of 450 people? Gee, who isn’t biased towards their alma mater? I’d say that even if Medill was No. 1.

by Herman on Dec 21, 2011 10:46 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree.

I think in any of these rankings, it’s impossible to rank #1 vs #2 vs #3. When I rank anything, I rank in ‘clumps’, i.e. top undergrad schools are Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Stanford, and MIT. I think it is silly to rank one above another.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Dec 21, 2011 11:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Please note...

…I did not change my screen-name to HereComesASpecialBoy.

Sincerely,

Chadnudj

/I’ll say….5-4. I think we’ll beat Creighton, Penn State, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota (that’s 6 teams, so I take one of those teams and chalk it up to a poor shooting night loss).

by Chadnudj on Dec 21, 2011 3:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Welcome back Chad.

It has been a while, but yea, 5-4 would be AWESOME. Your lineup of wins is not unrealistic at all, what has gotten into you, kidding aside.

Have a good holiday.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Dec 21, 2011 6:31 PM CST up reply actions  

your point about the high variance nature of the 3 point shot

is a good one

you’re right that Shurna’s 3 point looks on Saturday were similar to the ones he got on Sunday. actually I’d say the ones he got Sunday were tougher, largely because he took one ridiculous heat check on Sunday, and i dont remember him doing anything like that on Saturday.

by Loretta8 on Dec 21, 2011 12:56 PM CST reply actions  

You better watch it, Rodger

Some of the online yahoos are going to come after you for writing such a reasonable analysis. However, i appreciate it.

Your analysis about the three-point shot is on the money. Unfortunately, it’s not really a new phenomena for the Cats. S.S.D.Year.

On the other hand, the inconsistency concerns me for different reasons.

1) Drew Crawford as an outside threat – When he drops threes, I’m starting to think this is a completely different team. It forces teams to concentrate on someone besides Shurna and opens things up. If he’s just a pedestrian player as he has a tendancy to be, the Cats are much easier to defend.

2) Defense – I don’t think this team has played with nearly the defensive intensity that it did in Charleston.

But really, the reasons don’t matter. Somebody needs to get it through to this group that it is not NEARLY talented enough to be inconsistent in any phase of the game. They can do a bit of damage, but not unless they are on top of their game every night.

Considering the recent past with Penn State, I’d be pretty happy with three wins in the next seven games – Creighton, Sandusky State and one of the other ranked teams. I think that gives the Cats a fighting chance.

I’m scared as hell about the 0-for.

by Sec.112 on Dec 21, 2011 3:53 PM CST reply actions  

Don't worry about the 0-for.

NU isn’t bad anymore, meaning not so bad they lose to terrible teams. I consider PSU is a terrible team, my prediction is 3-4 which is not terrible at all.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Dec 21, 2011 6:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Caught Carmody on Big Ten Pulse

(a.k.a. low-rent Pardon the Interruption)

He was his dry self, and seemed disappointed with the defensive energy during the Rand McNally Directional Schools Christmas Classic. Hopefully he can figure out a way to get these guys locked in for this next 9 games.

I’m on board with Sec — Crawford is the key here. If he can hit 3s, and get that slash going, then it’s going to free space up for everyone. As much as I’d like to get Shurna goin’ early, part of me hopes that we decoy him to see who else we can establish. If they press Shurna at the arc, that opens it up for Mirkovic inside. Yes, we can snark all we want, but I like getting the ball into him on the block 1 on 1.

Overall, on offense, we have to keep moving it inside and then kick out. We love chuckin’ threes, but I’d rather have those after moving it inside or off of dribble penetration. Hopefully Sobo can keep making good decisions.

One of the things I’ve learned from the non-con, we can trust Hearn. With Marco and Jershon coming on, that gives us 4 guys to rotate at the 2/3, as well as give spot rest to Sobo. Shurna’s gotta stay healthy, and if Mirkoletti can keep pulling down double-doubles, we’re going to be on the good side of 5-4 or better.

On defense — we gotta just junk it up, and hope that our mixing styles will frustrate our opponents. I think our man to man can potentially be the best its ever been (which is like a 4 out of 10), but we’re going to need the 1-3-1 to gum up the works.

www.massivecreativity.com

by macarthur31 on Dec 21, 2011 8:25 PM CST reply actions  

Agree with all of this analysis.

I do agree that this team is too Shurna dependent, but until Crawford proves to be more consistent, it is hard to blame Shurna for doing what he does.

I hope Reggie H continues his AMAZING streak of being more and more of a clutch player.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Dec 22, 2011 9:36 AM CST up reply actions  

Put me down for 4-5

And if we do that well, I promise Loretta to continue to refrain from commenting on Carmody’s courtside body language.

Any less than the four wins, though …

by SeattleCat on Dec 21, 2011 10:49 PM CST reply actions  

Don't stop the body language comments!

Who can resist the Bill Carmody look-disgusted-throw-up-hands-walk-to-seat-plop-down-cross-legs-put-face-into-hand?

If only we could get someone to make a .gif of that… Northwestern students, GO!

by MNWildcat on Dec 22, 2011 1:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Oh, and ...

Drew is the key. When he’s fully engaged — when he’s The Good Drew — the whole team is better. Focused. Moving. Flowing.

But at those (increasingly rare) times when he seems half there — The Bad Drew — it’s like the engine is clunking through a gear.

Let’s go, Good Drew!

by SeattleCat on Dec 22, 2011 12:17 AM CST reply actions  

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