One Less Day Til Football Season, Post 6: Defensive Tackle
by Rodger Sherman on Jul 26, 2011 3:45 PM CDT
in 2011 Northwestern Wildcats Football
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Look, I don't know why I broke down defensive line into two positions while offensive line is just one. And I'm not going to change it for anybody, unless I'm lazy next year and don't want to.
NUsports.com has officially put all their player profiles into "2011 Football season" mode, which makes my life just about a trillion times easier when writing these. I'm not joking when I say I cried a little bit when I opened Brian Arnfelt's player page while writing this article to see NUsports' updated account of how Arnfelt might effect the defense. (Okay, I'm totally joking, but still, I'm infinitely happy.)
Days left til football: 38
Who dun it: You probably remember that I posted like 15 hours ago about some guy named Corbin Bryant, who is now a Chicago Bear. Corbin had been starting at defensive tackle since 2008 and had always done a decent job clogging up the middle with his strength. The other spot in NU's lineup was primarily handled by Jack DiNardo, although he missed a start against Iowa, clearly proving he's terrible because NU played well that game. They were backed up by Niko Mafuli and in a few instances earlier in the year, true freshman Will Hampton. Altogether, the unit at defensive tackle wasn't terribly impressive: NU's run defense was slipshod and you could count on opposing rushers getting 4-6 yards up the middle at will. And between the five guys who saw time at defensive tackle, the unit only recorded 1.5 sacks, by Bryant against Central Michigan. There was no area in which NU's defensive tackles excel.
Who's gone?: Bryant graduated after five years in the program and as of yesterday is now busy bearing down. Bryant was an extremely consistent player, but I'm not going to act like his performance wasn't replaceable. The question is whether its replaceable by somebody NU has on their roster.
Lines I consider offensive: (Note: this was supposed to go into the "offensive line" post, but I forgot. So it goes here.)
1. "Flow tight like I was born Jewish" - Jay-Z, "This Can't Be Life": Certainly not the most offensive line about Jews in hip-hop but Jay-Z is certainly the most likely to drop one about Jews and their propensity to be greedy, good at being lawyers, or whatever he meant when he said he was the "Martha Stewart that's far from Jewish", so he gets the nod.
2. "You was a stillborn baby; your mother didn't want you, but you was still born" - Vast Aire of Cannibal Ox, "Iron Galaxy". Not actually offensive to me in any way, but probably the harshest thing I've ever heard said of anybody by someone else ever.
3. "I had a relative who died in the Holocaust, actually. Yeah, he got too drunk and fell off a guard tower." - a guy I'm friends with, who waited like three years before he felt comfortable making this joke.
4. 378-way tie, anybody who has ever questioned my drinking capabilities.
Who got next?: DiNardo has one spot locked down, the other is apparently a battle between Arnfelt and Mafuli. Neither has ever been a truly prominent part of Northwestern's defense.
Is that an improvement?: At face value, somehow, this doesn't improve from last year: DiNardo stays DiNardo, you drop the most prominent member of the unit, and add two guys who have never truly distinguished themselves. But I can't really rule out improvement: Average would be a fantastic performance from this unit rather than rarely having a chance at shutting down running lanes.
Who else we got?: Hampton and Chance Carter are listed as battling to back up Arnfelt. Carter is a convert from defensive end, Hampton was apparently good enough to necessitate being played as a true freshman but didn't make a ripple in a weak defensive line pool. I see both guys getting some occasional snaps, but neither being a major factor, as much as I think they can contribute down the road.
Rodger's three wishes:
1. More Niko: Every once in a while we hear about how good Niko Mafuli is, if only he could put together his conditioning and stamina. He's huge and purportedly talented. But he hasn't been able to play for long enough to show that. Well, now he's a senior: his conditioning isn't going to improve that much more before he's done here. Nothing against Arnfelt, but I'm just more intrigued by what Mafuli could be and would like to see him put it all together.
2. Competence against the rush: Northwestern allowed 5.15 yards per carry. 110th in the nation. Obviously that doesn't all have to do with the DT's - if there are more sacks, that numbers go down, if the linebackers were better at tackling, that goes down, etc. etc. - but that lack of push up front was absolutely murderous to NU's chances in some games.
3. Play off Vince Browne: This will/has come up a lot. Vince Browne is the star of Northwestern's defense. Remember how NU's defensive tackles got 1.5 combined sacks last year? Browne had seven. He'll draw enough attention that the rest of Northwestern's line will have a slightly easier time doing work. Stack your best defensive tackle right there next to him. Make opposing defenses either pay or compensate for your talent.
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It is pathetic...
How bad NU’s defense was last year? We can discuss Persa’s injury all we want, and yes, that would have had some impact. But, the defense is so laughable. If I am any Big Ten coach, why even bother passing till NU can prove they can stop anyone on the ground.
Amazing, so many fans remember the Wrigley game with such fondness, I recall ILL rushing for over 500 yards, say that outloud, 500 yards on the ground alone. Sheesh. Everyone says this rushing defense will improve, but by how much? Will it move the needle enough?
Remember, 12-0 is a POSSIBILITY! Just like it is possible for me to win the lottery, marry a supermodel, play in Wimbledon, and cure cancer – it is possible.
5.15 yards/carry, wow, that stat says it all.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 27, 2011 11:06 AM CDT reply actions
It Depends on What You Look At
I’m not sure I understand the histrionics (i.e., winning the lottery or curing cancer), but let me just say that if your ability to cure cancer (or is it your ability to do all those things?) is similar to NU’s ability to go 12-0, well, I’m feeling a little better today about our chances to beat cancer. That doesn’t mean I’ll take up smoking or skydiving into Fukushima. But better nonetheless.
But the same “pathetic” defense held Michigan State (which wasn’t exactly a horrible rushing team) to 105 yards rushing, and Iowa (also not a horrible rushing team) to 101 yards.
As much as we’d like it to, I’m afraid it’s far too simplistic to claim any stat “says it all.”
by jabawacefti on Jul 27, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
it says a lot.
Defending the rush hasn’t been a strong suit of the NU defense since ‘08 . I think a lot of that dropoff had to do with the loss of John Gill. That doesn’t rule out your opportunities of having a good season when you have a really good offense and I actually think the secondary will turn out nicely.
by Rodger Sherman on Jul 27, 2011 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Really?
You think NU has a chance to go 12-0? I thought that was only Chad, wow! NU has some loyal (and delusional) fans out there. If you are here to defend NU’s defense (pass or rush), then we don’t have anything to debate. The defensive rankings (total, pass, rush) says all it about how bad the defense was last year.
I do agree w/Rodger that NU’s defense will improve, but that means nothing it was dead last in conference. Will it improve from 11th to 7th? Sure, but will it become a top 5 defense, ummmmm, hell to the no.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 27, 2011 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
no...
I said a good season. I don’t think jabawacefti was saying anything besides chances of NU going 12-0 – what, .5 percent? – are better than those of supermodel marriage/cancer curing/lotto wins.
by Rodger Sherman on Jul 27, 2011 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow.
If you’re going to hate on everything Northwestern, AT LEAST get the facts right.
NU’s defense … was dead last in conference
According to the OFFICIAL 2010 Big Ten statistics (found right here on this easily Google-searchable page):
- NU’s scoring defense was 8th in the B1G (ahead of Minny, Michigan, and Indiana)
- NU’s pass defense was 10th in the B1G (ahead of Michigan)
- NU’s rush defense was 9th in the B1G (ahead of Michigan and Minny)
- NU’s total defense was 10th in the B1G (ahead of Michigan)
- NU’s pass defense efficiency was 6th in B1G (ahead of PSU, Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana)
- NU’s opponent first downs allowed was 10th in the B1G (ahead of Michigan)
- NU’s sacks were tied for 8th in the B1G (with PSU, although we got more yards lost on our sacks, and ahead of Indiana and Minnesota)
- NU’s opponents’ 4th down conversion percentage was 10th in the B1G (ahead of Minnesota)
- NU’s redzone defense was 7th in the B1G (ahead of Wisconsin, Minny, Indiana, and Penn State)
- NU’s opponent’s 3rd down conversion percentage was 4th in the B1G (ahead of MSU, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minny, Michigan, and Indiana)
- NU was 6th in turnovers forced in B1G (ahead of PSU, Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan)
So, literally, NU was dead last in exactly ZERO defensive categories last year. Moreover, those numbers are HEAVILY skewed by the defensive collapse in the final 3 games – games played without Persa, in which drives were not sustained, the defense was on the field far too long, and where the offense turned the ball over far too often leading to short fields.
Your entire premise is wrong. We award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
that is not a list of stats to be proud of.
just sayin.
by Rodger Sherman on Jul 27, 2011 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Fair enough
But we’re not dead last in anything….and our stats are skewed by 3 games in which our offense was awful/could not sustain a drive/turned the ball over a lot, meaning our defense looked a HELL of a lot worse than they would have otherwise.
I do have to give it up for you.
You are correct, NU is not dead last in any defensive categories. Yet, you spent 10 minutes highlighting how bad it is, but if you wanted me to admit I was wrong about them being 11 of 11, you got it. Be proud of this 10th ranked defense.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 27, 2011 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions
is that thing motorized?
didnt kiddy cars require foot power to work?
by Rodger Sherman on Jul 27, 2011 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Love the graphics.
If I’m the only ‘hater’, that’s ok. I was just pointing out facts.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 27, 2011 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah i wasnt really disagreeing with you
just needed an excuse to post that
No worries,
Please post graphics all the time. I still love the man going, aww man…That was awesome.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 28, 2011 7:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Chances of 12-0
I don’t think it’s likely to happen, but yes, better than the supermodel marriage/cancer curing/lotto wins. Of course, knowing nothing about NU Alumni other than his pessimism (well informed or otherwise) of NU’s defense, I can’t speak to his supermodel marrying chances, and I would hate to rain on someone’s parade.
As far as the stats, yes, it means a lot. But what I’m more interested in is the massive difference in the games for seemingly insignificant reasons. Why were we credibly decent in some games and worthless in others (mostly the last three)? Everyone thought 2008 was better because of Hankwitz, but we had the same coach in 2010, right? John Gill had the same stats in 2007, why were we so much better in 2008?
I don’t know. But what it will likely come down to is whether the team in the offseason has actually put in the effort required to make the transformation necessary to get to that next level. I have no reason to necessarily believe they will (since they haven’t so far), but I am not convinced they won’t either.
Fair points.
Look, my opinions are just based on the results of the Fitz era. I want to be optimistic, I want NU sports to be better.
Sure, none of us know with 100% certainity what this season will bring, but at a time when majority of college fb teams are peaking and playing their best football, NU was embarrassed by Illinois and Wisconsin. Sure, is NU putting in effort to get better, of course, but so is EVERY SINGLE other Big Ten team. NU players work hard, but so does our competitors.
This team is going to stuggle to be 4-4 in conference, forget 12-0, b/c that just came about with Chad’s comments, realistically, majority of fans have this team between 3-5 and 5-3 in conference, but can this defense improve enough to produce that? I don’t know, but based on last year, my opinion is NO. I HOPE I am wrong, and this team improves immensely.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 27, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Having Just Read Skip's Interview w/ Fitz
I’m more optimistic than I was. As much as we put on Fitz as a game manager, etc., the difference between a crap team and a decent team, and a great team lies in the number of individuals that take it upon themselves to put in the work to become special.
That’s what turns JJ Watt, a nothing TE recruit transfer into a quarterback killer, or Ryan Kerrigan, a 3-star nothing with offers to Indiana and Purdue into Superman, or Dan Persa, the little dude with offers from NU and WVU, into a Hero Amongst Men. Here’s hoping that Mafuli, or Matthews, or Scott, or Campbell pull out something special…
2 ways to look at everything.
I’ve heard many coaches say the hardest thing to predict is the transition from high school to college, even more than college to pros. So, I agree, it is very hard to predict how some of these incoming players will do; however, my issue is on a holistic basis of how NU’s recruiting classes consistenly rank in the bottom 3 and yet our expectations are higher. Sure, there are many great stories like Persa or Kerrigan, but overall, those are in the minority.
Jaba – what was your season prediction? Overall, conference?
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 27, 2011 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Prediction
Not worth much but…
I’m guessing 8-4 or 9-3 with the wildcard being Boston College depending on how ready Persa is. I think he’ll be ready to start, but they may not use him the whole game, and it may take a game or two to get him up and running for live play.
Then I say losses with Iowa (because the law of averages suggests we can’t beat them forever, although I thought that the last two years and….), Nebraska (because I fear playing an option-read big rush team and a good defense), and Michigan State (I think Kirk Cousins is the most underrated player in the Big Ten, and he gets lots of cred, top 2-3 player in my opinion. Will be very difficult to beat).
Eastern Illinois – Uh…do I need to explain?
Army – I think we’ll be comparatively well prepared and coached for the triple option.
Illinois – Lost some huge players, and I think Scheelhaase is one of the most overrated quarterbacks I’ve ever seen play.
Michigan – I just can’t see how they can quickly transform that offense from Rich Rod’s and (previously?) horrible defense by the fifth week, and we’re at home.
Penn State – if it wasn’t Paterno’s 400th at home, I think we might have had a good chance last year.
Indiana – Wilson will help, but not that much and not that soon.
Rice – We beat them 30-10 last year, and we’ll be better this year.
Minnesota – They have too much to learn with Kill. I’ll be worried in year 3-4.
Ok, sounds good.
I’ll put you down for 9-3 (5-3). Very reasonable w/everyone else that’s positive on this team.
Once again, 5-3 would not constitute a ‘great coach’.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 27, 2011 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions
"5-3 would not constitute a great coach."
By itself, no, it probably would not. The fundamental problem is that you expect Big Ten championships—not ten years from now, not two years from now, but RIGHT NOW.
Suppose, however, that going 5-3 in conference three times in four years (2008, 2009, and hypothetically 2011) is a stepping stone to consistently going 6-2 or so and frequently challenging for the championship of the greatest conference in the history of collegiate athletics, for a team that for decades (and until very, very recently) was synonymous with apathy, despair, and utter, abject, devastating failure. Would that constitute a great coach, Class of ’02?
Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!
by Foxhole Atheist on Jul 27, 2011 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Difference between first ten games and last 3?
Dan Persa.
Sustaining drives on offense = a rested defense, and better field position for that defense (i.e. no short fields).
With Persa, our offense was #1 NATIONALLY in 10+ play offensive drives (i.e. the types that wear down opposing defenses, rest your defense, and prevent opposing offenses from getting into a rhythm by keeping them off the field).
WIthout Persa, we turned the ball over 7 times against Wisconsin (leading to short-field points), allowed Illinois to hold the ball for over 40 minutes (one of the craziest TOP advantages I’ve ever seen), and had far too many 3 and outs early against TTech (which could have changed that game around).
Persa matters/mattered….not only to the offense, but to the defense, too. There is ZERO percent chance that Illinois rushes for 500+ yards against us if Persa is there — hell, I firmly believe we BEAT Illinois with Persa (we were only down 3 at half, down 10 after 3Qs without him). Against Wisconsin….hell, they still beat us, and maybe steamroll us, but we don’t turn it over 7 times with Persa, and that means they don’t score 70 on us. And we’d beat TTech with Persa at QB (and frankly, I doubt it would have been close).
Ummm
Chad, no one is disagreeing that Persa’s injury had a huge impact. But to imply the results would be different are just ‘being a fan’. Bottom line, injuries are a part of sports, and the result is what stands. Every team has significant injury, look at Iowa, their QB got hurt.
We can ponder what would happen, but let’s just agree to disagree. At least this season, we’ll be able to see what happens.
I really do think you are the strongest fan on this board, no matter what the topic is, you are positive. That is hard to do.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 27, 2011 8:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm perhaps a tad tempered compared to Chad.
But the results WOULD be different. They may not be “NU: 40, Wisc: 23” different, but they would definitely allow for considerably less skewing of the numbers and would shed a slightly more positive light on NU’s defense.
Go ahead, try and play 40+ min. against Illinois’s rushing attack. And stop them. I dare you. If we have Persa and can keep possession? Maybe we don’t WIN. But we’re on the field defensively for perhaps 3-7 mins. less.
No disagreement there.
We all know he had an impact, but to what degree.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jul 28, 2011 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Pretty big
7-3 with Persa, with a defense that was better than in 2009.
0-3 without Persa, with a defense that ended up being significantly WORSE than in 2009.
And keep in mind — we didn’t have any significant injuries (to my knowledge) on the defensive side of the ball in those last 3 games, until Hunter Bates broke his leg against TTech.
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