Northwestern's Non-Conference Basketball Schedule is Out
by Rodger Sherman on Aug 24, 2011 11:30 AM CDT
in 2011-12 Northwestern Wildcats Basketball
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PrintQuit getting all excited about football! We know who Northwestern is going to play in basketball! The non-conference schedule is hot off the presses, so let me yell about it.
Overall, we knew this year's sked would be better than last year's simply by the addition of a) a better non-conference tournament, the Charleston Classic b) Georgia Tech and Creighton on the road rather than at home and c) Baylor. The rest of the games are rather tune-uppy, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing: it'll help the Cats get the wins they need to look decent going into conference play. That said, they once again leave themselves in a scenario where without a great schedule, every non-cupcake game becomes uber-important.
Hit the jump.
Exhibition: Nov. 7, vs. Robert Morris.
Ahh, the annual Robert Morris exhibition game. A Northwestern tradition unlike any other. I'll miss it when I graduate.
Nov. 13, Texas Pan-American.
Last year's Kenpom ranking: 332.
The Broncs! Our good friends at UTPA are back on the schedule again presumably as part of the deal that saw NU head down to the Rio Grande Valley last year. They won't make NU's RPI look too good, but they've proved a good opener and gave NU a run for their money two years ago. Good for NU to get a win out of the way before the Charleston tourney. This is the day after NU plays Rice, so they can share a flight back to Houston together!
Nov. 17-20: Charleston Classic
We've talked about this. Good stuff.
Nov. 25: Stony Brook
Last year's Kenpom ranking: 216
What better way to spend your Thanksgiving weekend than checking out NU taking on the Seawolves? You'll remember Stony Brook for graciously hosting the women's lacrosse rendition of the Wildcats and their 2011 National Championship. Expect me to make jokes about how much I hate Long Island.
Nov. 29: @Georgia Tech, Atlanta, Ga.
POTENTIALLY LOSABLE GAME TAG
Last year's Kenpom ranking: 89
The Yellow Jackets hopefully won't be a pushover like last year in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge game. Actually, scratch that, it would be nice if they were a pushover again. Oddly enough, this game will be in Philips Arena, where the Hawks play, rather than the Alexander Memorial Coliseum on Georgia Tech's campus. Seems unnecessary. (Ed. note: GTech's home court is undergoing renovation apparently.)
Dec. 2: Mississippi Valley State
Last year's Kenpom ranking: 310
It's not a Northwestern season without dipping into the ol' bag of SWAC.
Dec. 4: Baylor
POTENTIALLY LOSABLE GAME TAG
Last year's Kenpom ranking: 77
Probably the most intriguing home non-conference game Northwestern has played in my time at Northwestern. Perry Jones III will be playing his first game of the season against NU. In case you're wondering, the Bears are fresh off a trip to Canada that saw them lose to Belgium, of all things.
Dec. 15: Texas Southern
Last year's Kenpom ranking: 280
Double-dip into the bag of SWAC.
Dec. 17: Central Connecticut
Last year's Kenpom ranking: 161
They were a decently good Northeast Conference Team. One of the tastier cupcakes you'll see.
Dec. 18: Eastern Illinois
Last year's Kenpom ranking: 299
It might seem a little strange to play back-to-back games unless you're in a tournament, in fact, it is. But I don't think it will hurt NU - EIU isn't much on the basketball court. The basketball Cats will be dueling the football Cats for margin of victory points.
Dec. 22: @Creighton, Omaha, Neb.
POTENTIALLY LOSABLE GAME TAG
Last year's Kenpom ranking: 95
NU's final non-con game pits them against a team they didn't really struggle against last year, but this time they'll be on the road against a typically strong mid-major.
VITAL STATS:
Home games: 7
Road games: 2
Neutral site: 3
Top 100 Kenpom teams (not including Charleston): 3
100-200 Kenpom teams (not including Charleston): 1
200-300: 3
300-below: 2
SWAC on: a hundred thousand trillion 2
Devils: 2 (Central Connecticut Blue, Mississippi Valley State Delta)
Texans: 3 (Baylor, Texas Southern, Texas Pan-American)
Directions: 3 (Eastern Illinois, Texas Southern, Central Connecitcut)
So there you have it. If NU wins their preseason tourney and takes two-out-of-three from Baylor, Georgia Tech, and Creighton, you're looking at an 11-1 team with wins over a few decent squads. I approve of that concept.
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Something's missing...
Where’s the weirdo late January-early February nonconference game against a team with a bad RPI?
by tylerinoklahoma on Aug 24, 2011 11:32 AM CDT reply actions
yeah, I was thinking that
SIU-Edwardsville and Chicago State have apparently moved on to bigger and better things.
by Rodger Sherman on Aug 24, 2011 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Ummm, mixed thoughts.
So, much credit for Charleston Classic, Baylor, Creighton. Respect, respect, respect.
But, wow, must our garbage games be that garbage. Sheeesh! So, is it an improvement from last year? Sure, is it good enough compared to other B1G schools, probably not.
Can someone do some analysis and compare our average RPI of non-conf compared to all 11 other schools and see where we rank? My prediction, 8th or 9th. Typical of NU hoops.
Look, I thought that with the good, it would be a better non-conf, but why do we schedule such bottom teams?
Let’s be honest, this non-conf will not get them in or out of the NCAA tournament, their 7-11 or 8-10 record will be what keeps them out.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 11:59 AM CDT reply actions
this schedule is decent by the standards of the rest of the league
iowa doesn’t leave the state of Iowa during non conference play. Minnesota doesn’t have any true road games. Purdue and Wisconsin are pretty similar to NU’s. Michigan has a tough schedule, I haven’t seen Michigan State’s but I’m sure its very tough.
Ok, good to know.
Yes, road and home games definitely factor in, but on sheer RPI/Ken Pom rankings, is there a way to get aggregate numbers that rank the school’s non-conf SOS?
Also, while some of the top teams, OSU, Wisc, and PU might have easier schedules, they do have tougher top tier opponents than NU has. Look, I’m really happy w/Baylor, Creighton, Char Classic, and even GT, but none of those are top 25 opponents, and our bottom has some pure garbage.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, yes...
our bottom has some pure garbage.
Welcome to the world of nonconference basketball scheduling. Everyone has that game.
OSU, Wisc, and PU might have easier schedules, they do have tougher top tier opponents than NU has
Because they’re better teams than we are.
I understand your concerns, but this is a move in the right direction.
Ask and ye shall receive.
Average 2010-11 KenPom rank (because RPI sucks) of non-conference opponents:
Illinois: 147
Minnesota: 151
Purdue: 154
Ohio State: 172
Nebraska: 189
Iowa: 194
Northwestern: 209
(Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin haven’t put their 2011-12 schedules on their websites yet.)
So, by this measure, you are right—NU has a weak non-conference slate compared to the rest of the conference. However, I would caution you from reading too much into these, for two reasons: (1) I didn’t include any “non-guaranteed” games in these calculations (games where the opponent was not known with certainty) and NU’s number will thus look a lot better if they beat LSU in the first round of the Charleston Classic (by ‘10-’11 KenPom, NU is the best team in the field and LSU is the worst), and (2) teams in the upper echelons are often loath to schedule Northwestern, since the ‘Cats are good enough that they just might beat you but bad enough that beating them doesn’t do anything for your reputation. I agree with the sentiment that I wish the non-conference were a little tougher, though.
N.B.: To Class of ’02, one line of “respect” followed by six lines of dour pessimism counts as “mixed thoughts.”
Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!
by Foxhole Atheist on Aug 24, 2011 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, and Loretta8 makes a good point about home/road makeup.
There’s no correction in these numbers for the fact that NU plays more true road games, if I am not mistaken, than any of the other teams whose schedules have been posted. (Sorry, Io_a, but playing Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls doesn’t really count as a road game in my book.) So that helps NU’s SoS as well, above and beyond the relative simplicity of my little KenPom rank averaging exercise.
Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!
by Foxhole Atheist on Aug 24, 2011 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks man!
Perfect, yes we are at the bottom, but good point about road/home and if the team wins in Charleston Classic, that number will only go up. Great points, so it’s not a pure apples to apples comparison yet. Let’s see what the RPI/Ken Pom is after the end of the non-conf, but…………..
so far NU is DEAD last, yes can it go up, yes we play on the road, but numbers wise, NU is at the bottom again!
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
for the record
playing UNI in Cedar Falls does count as a road game in the RPI’s book. As did NU playing Northern Illinois last year.
by Rodger Sherman on Aug 24, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah, the other games are pretty bad.
Ideally, NU would keep a similar schedule to this but instead of the 300-level games, a bunch of 100-200-level teams, a level of play NU has routinely taken to the woodshed in the past few years, providing warmup games without harming the RPI. I’ll fault NU for not getting more of these teams, but I imagine they’re in relatively high demand/difficult to schedule.
But I agree for the most part with NU’s overall schedule concept: there’s a little bit more beef than usual but still an opportunity to do pretty well.
by Rodger Sherman on Aug 24, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Georgia Tech game
The reason it’s at Phillips Arena is because Alexander Memorial Coliseum is undergoing extensive renovations and will not be used this year. All Yellow Jackets home games will be at Phillips or in suburban Gwinnett.
gah.
I figured this was the case but didn’t take the time to look it up. Either way, that game will be empty.
by Rodger Sherman on Aug 24, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Screw Mississippi Valley State
Those bastards kept us out of the NIT in 2004 when we managed to go 8-8 in the Big Ten, yet somehow lose to them in a December tournament.
NEVER FORGET.
You are mad NU didn't make the NIT?
That shows how low expectations/standards are at NU. The 2004 NIT means something to somebody. Wow.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Cappy's right
God bless your memory, Cappy. My first thought was “there they are again.”
The “living room” discussion with recruits has a bit more meat to it if you can get to some type of post-season play in the first four years rather than … you know.
Yes, it was only the NIT, but that incredibly stupid loss hurt.
Also, I hope the players NU is recruting knows the difference
…between postseason tournaments. If a player is being recruited by BCS caliber schools, and Bill Carmody says, “You know, we’ve been in the postseason 3 years in a row,” then I would hope the player says, a) you are lying, b) the NIT is not the postseason, or c) that’s what you came to me with to get me to go to NU, you were in the NIT for 3 years in a row.
Look, if people like Herman want to be excited about the NIT, great, but if that’s our recruiting platform, good lord, let’s get excited about the Vince Scott’s of the world.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Also, if people say the NIT is the postseason, then...
…do you also consider the CBI and CIT the postseason as well?
You must remain consistent.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Postseason (noun).
(American English) The period after the end of the normal sports season during which extra games are held.
So…yes, the CBI and CIT are part of the postseason.
Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!
by Foxhole Atheist on Aug 24, 2011 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Foxhole, I'm cool w/you.
Listen FA, if you are cool w/NIT, CBI, and CIT being labeled postseason tournaments, then fantastic, you are correct.
However (in the voice of Stephen A. Smith), to me, and I hope MAJORITY of sports fans, those tournaments are didley poo.
It’s like saying, hey, we went to a bowl game, ummm, sure you did, you went to toilet bowl and team X went to the Rose Bowl, you both are in bowl games, but there is such a difference so brag about being in a bowl to me means nothing. What bowl?
Sorry, I’m wrambling and writing poorly, I’m just ready to be heading home.
Bottom line, I don’t want NU to brag about being in the NIT for 3 straight years, you finished 9th, 7th, and 8th, so to be happy that you are in a postseason tournament is embarrassing.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions
we know it's not the same.
we all know Northwestern has never made the NCAA tournament. Nobody is satisfied with it.
Are we more glad when NU goes to the NIT than when they miss out on it? Yes. Are we more glad when they win two games than when we lose? Yes.
by Rodger Sherman on Aug 24, 2011 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
for fucks sake
you’re gonna make me spell it out for you?
NUCappy is obviously not being serious when he says screw mississippi valley state for costing NU an NIT bid. for nu alum to go off on a rant about lowered expectations, blah blah blah, based on a completely harmless comment intended to be a joke, i found that aggravating, and i expressed my annoyance by saying “jesus”
is that enough “insight” to meet your standards?
8, it's ok, don't be mad.
i was kidding as well. :)
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
but elsewhere?
Hahaha, just kidding, I know we have our battles. I know you are up in Beantown, shoot me and Herman a line when you roll down to the District of Columbia and a beer is on me for all the heartache I’ve caused you.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll take the hit on this one
First of all, my apologies. I thought your comment was in response to my post. So it was a cheap response. My bad.
I respect what you guys do here and what you’ve established. I like your usual comments. The one word comment is a general online pet peeve. I just think it takes up screen space.
Hope I didn’t get under your skin too far.
Uh...
My post was partially tongue-in-cheek, but yes, at the time, having not experienced post-season play, and us having gone 8-8 in the Big Ten, I was, in fact, pissed off that we lost this game and didn’t make the NIT.
See Loretta8!
He was mad that NU didn’t make the NIT.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Ohh no, are you serious?
Are you a brother from another mother? Ohh damn, shoot me a line at ayankbagchi@hotmail.com and we can chitter/chatter later on. How did you find that out?
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Just because someone's mad about missing the NIT
doesn’t mean he’d be messing himself with excitement if we did make it. Why wouldn’t you want NU to participate in the NIT if it has a chance to? The games may not matter to you, but it’s not like they don’t have value.
It's ok.
Herman, to be honest, I’m not really mad, I’m just shocked at fans caring this much about the NIT. It’s fine, I’m not really that angry.
Also, I do think the NIT is completely irrelevant. We’ve seen teams win the NIT and be bad the following year, we’ve seen teams do poorly in the NIT and be better in the next year. To me the NIT is the equivalent of bad bad bowl games, they are just there for some fans. The results mean nothing.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions
"They are just there for some fans."
Um…isn’t that the raison d’etre of ALL sports?
“We’ve seen teams win the NIT and be bad the following year, we’ve seen teams do poorly in the NIT and be better in the next year.” The exact same thing could be said of the NCAA tournament. Just ask Florida or Ohio State or North Carolina. Just in the last four years, we have three teams that played for the national championship in one year and the following year didn’t even make the NCAA tourney; expanding the definition of “doing well” in the NCAA to the Final Four or the Elite Eight would give us many more examples yet. So do the results of the NCAA tourney “mean nothing,” too?
There’s a difference between being happy and being satisfied, and there are obviously gradations of those feelings under different conditions. Was I satisfied that we made the NIT last year? No, because I thought the team had enough talent to make the NCAA (just ask Tom Izzo or Thad Matta—I think they’d back up that assertion). Was I happy that’s where we ended up? At least insofar as I would have been very unhappy had we not made it, yes, and I was very happy with how the team played in the NIT as well.
Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!
by Foxhole Atheist on Aug 24, 2011 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
ok, that's a compromise.
I’ll take some of your points. For me, I don’t care about the NIT, but I’ll respect the other side.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions
For those who believe this is a tourney team
I’m not sure this schedule helps your argument. Rodger makes a very good point that there are a minimum of four very loseable games in this schedule.
Rodger, I love your scenario of the Cats winning their preseason tourney and taking two-out-of-three from Baylor, Georgia Tech, and Creighton. However, let me assume the team will not be as good without Juice. I think that gives the Cats at least one more loss compared to last year’s team – one who had two losses with a better team and lesser schedule.
Two of those games on the road also scare me.
If we assume this team is .500-ish in conference play, and it finds itself with four non-conference losses, that tournament bid is going to be a bitch.
I hope the Cats get out of this schedule with only three losses, and a more competitive team for B10 play.
As a basketball fan, i love the schedule. As an NU fan, all I can say is “thank you” for bringing a real team to the Welsh in December.
The B1G schedule will dictate our tournament chances. Not non-conf.
PSU was TERRIBLE in non-conf last year, and yet they made the tournament, b/c they played better in conference. With 18 games, there is no where to hide, and that record is so important.
I agree, assuming NU wins the Char Classic is a HUGE assumption. 2 of 3 from Baylor, GT, and Creighton is reasonable, very resonable.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I was making a huge assumption.
that seems like a best case scenario.
by Rodger Sherman on Aug 24, 2011 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Then we're in complete agreement
I was just trying to go with a reasonably positive flow. It’s usually not my first inclination with this staff, and a little tough for me.
I'll be honest...
The only thing I care about is not losing to teams of RPI less than 120.
Oh, and Illinois losing to their brethren in Chicago again this year. BA-ZING!
Dude, if Illinois loses to UIC again, holy bejesus, that would be amazing.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 24, 2011 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions
No kidding.
I laughed at my then-roommate (Illinois alum) when it happened.
Then when we beat Illinois later in the season, his comment was, “We’ll see you in the NIT.” Now if only THAT were true…
NO NO NO
If the goal is to make the NCAA tournament, then you want your conference opponents to do well in the non-con so that it boosts your team’s RPI later on.
Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!
by Foxhole Atheist on Aug 24, 2011 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, but if they're Illini fans, they deal with enough shit already.
/insert “farm school” joke here
Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!
by Foxhole Atheist on Aug 24, 2011 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
in priciple.
but at a certain point the schadenfreude from making fun of u of i for losing to uic outweighs the potential that some dude in the NCAA offices is like “well, Northwestern is on the verge of the tourney… but that Illinois win is tainted by Illinois’ loss to UIC. OFF THE BOARD.”
by Rodger Sherman on Aug 24, 2011 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
This, exactly.
Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!
by Foxhole Atheist on Aug 24, 2011 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Another perspective for the stats guys
Lindsey Willhite offers another view in his blog at …
http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/6183
I think he’s crazy if he considers a schedule with Baylor, GT, Creighton, LSU, the Tulsa/Western Kentucky winner and potentially another game with GT, VCU or St Joes similar to last year’s with Creighton, GT and St Johns.
Last year, one of those games was on the road. This year all but one is outside the confines of the Welsh.
I'm a little surprised at LW.
He is such a NU bball and Carmody lover; so I’m very surprised he pointed this out. Do I agree with it? Hmm, somewhat yes, but I do agree that the road/home factor needs to be emphasized.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Aug 25, 2011 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions
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