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Northwestern Wildcats vs. Boston College Eagles Game Preview/Prediction Thread

ONE. 

The countdown is getting smaller and it appears we've arrived. And with only one day left, we have a pretty clear idea what's going to happen tomorrow in the game between Dan Persa and the Northwestern Wildcats and those silly Boston College Eagles, don't we? (looks around) (sees general disagreement) (panics) (panics) (panics)

WHAT'S HAPPENING WHO AM I STOP EVERYTHING MAKE IT ALL STOP.

After the jump, experts who know everything say what they think will happen - the comments section, however, is your hood.

Star-divide

Herman

In the immortal words of Donald Rumsfeld, "There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know."

What we know is that Dan Persa is 10 months into his rehab from a torn achilles, an injury that typically takes 12-14 months to recovery from. We don't know how effective he'll be, nor how effective his replacement Kain Colter will be.
But I'm optimistic because I think that given an entire preseason to game plan, we'll be prepared for this game, no matter who is taking snaps. The team will know who they're going into battle with; BC won't know who's our starting quarterback until we take the field. That is to say, I think BC will have to deal with a lot more unknown unknowns than we will. (I personally would love to see Fitz trot out both Persa and Colter in that first series, just to confuse everybody. If Fitz has a sense of humor, which he assuredly does not, he'd send Watkins out there, too, just for kicks. Or even better, Fitz will call for a Wildcat formation with Venric Mark taking the snap and none of those QBs out there.) Not to mention, BC's secondary is dinged up.

Hopefully Persa is ready to go, but given what we saw out of Colter in the TicketCity Bowl, I'm comfortable with him out there. I think our defense is energized, and given that we're so laden with seniors, I'm confident they'll hold up a lot better than last year.

No doubt, BC will be a tough opener, but we have the tools to win; it'll be all about executing and keeping our heads. 

Prediction: NU 24, BC 20.

Rodger

So, Dan Persa, Kain Colter, who knows. 

This game is alarmingly evenly matched. It was an evenly matched game with both teams at full strength; then X out one team's starting QB and the others' starting running back and entire secondary. These teams are even self-mutilating accordingly.

Allow me to echo what I said on the podcast and Wildcat Report (SURPRISE!). I can't say anything about the QB's, because I don't know anything. I feel Kain Colter will be vastly improved with an extra year and can give an extra gear to NU's offense, I think Persa's arm - even without the threat of the run - can rip apart a painfully weak BC secondary. Persa won't need to run and Colter will have to throw - he's not running against Luke Kuechly and company. No offense to Trumpy and Schmidt, giving them the ball will be suicide. We have talent at QB and a spectacular wide receiving corps, it's time to show it.

I feel NU has a few things that are awesome going for it: BC has a great running back but no QB play whatsoever, which is bad, because NU is decidedly awful against the run, but they're switching from a system predicated on lots of running with a fullback to a passing system under their new OC - not to mention major graduations on the offensive line. (remember last year, teams with fullbacks like Illinois ran all over Northwestern, as did teams with running quarterbacks, BC doesn't have one.) Andre Williams will maim, but not kill Northwestern, and Rettig will keep NU in the game. 

It's going to be close, it's going to be scary, and we won't enjoy it. But I still think it's a win, because although BC is a good team - with the Persa situation shaky, I'm going to say BC is a better football team than NU - Northwestern is a team perfectly tailored to put up points against a stingy defense and hold BC juuuuust enough offense. That said, DAN PERSA IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. 

Score: NU 20, BC 14

Loretta8

I alluded to this on the podcast, but I don't like Northwestern's chances here. BC's tough front seven is a bad match-up for a run first, run second QB like Colter, and I expect NU to come out trying to establish the run in the early going as they are so often prone to do. That's not going to work and BC will probably jump out to an early lead.

The good news is that BC's secondary is dinged up and even Persa on one leg or Colter may be able to lead a comeback effort, but I don't think it will be quite enough. NU's defense against a strong running team like BC worries me a lot. Their best bet is if Chase Rettig hasn't improved since last year and throws some untimely interceptions.

Obviously hope I'm wrong:

BC 31, Northwestern 24

Poll
Who ya got?
Northwestern
108 votes
Boston College
52 votes

160 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 49 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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NU 31-28

And the legend of Pat F winning close games grows. Colin Cowherd just picked NU to win as well, yay! (I think)

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Sep 2, 2011 10:58 AM CDT reply actions  

.

Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!

by Foxhole Atheist on Sep 2, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

No offense, to NU Alum

Every time a cowherd short advertising the show comes on the ESPN radio, my ears start bleeding for some reason.

I can’t stand him or his opinions, I wish he picked against us.

by wcgrad on Sep 2, 2011 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

Dude, I'm not a fan of Cowherd!

I just had it on my TV in my office, so I just heard that. I think he’s a joke like many ESPN radio guys.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Sep 2, 2011 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

cowherd

Really don’t like him but I’m stuck in a car with limited reception. I feel like I need to let people know I don’t normally listen to that blowhard.

That being said, he doesn’t like nu he loves them. Say they win in a blowout 31 to 13. I agree. I think cats will score pretty easily. The d may give up some points but cats win this one comfortably.

by Curdog7 on Sep 2, 2011 11:19 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Cowherd is a Fitz lover.

When he was telling people how much he loves Fitz, his producer brought up his record, and Cowherd said, “Really? I thought he was much more successful than that.” (This was last season after NU beat Iowa).

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Sep 2, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

I gotcha, I do the same thing with Skip Bayless.

My ears don’t bleed, but i get an uncontrollable urge to throw things while laughing maniacally.

BTW. Check out the ‘Grid of Shame’ on the WSJ sports page (its public access, just google ‘Wall Street Journal Grid of Shame) there’s a comment on NU that you might enjoy.

by wcgrad on Sep 2, 2011 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's funny w/Bayless.

B/c he does have some absurd stances about MJ, Vince Young, Tim Tebow, Deion, etc, but he does have some really solid analysis at times. Hell, that could be said about anyone.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Sep 2, 2011 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

Quotes in the news

1. “The performance….began to give him a reputation as a running quarterback. [He] doesn’t see himself that way…..[he says:] ‘I definitely think I can throw the ball better than I can run it.’”

2. " [Says the QB]: ’Just the experience from last season when I got a chance to play. I kind of, I would rely on my legs a little more than I should have….[now I know] that knowing your opponent and everything that can possibly happen can affect the game a lot more than you think."

3. “[He] isn’t afraid to run for his life to try to move the pigskins. In fact, [he] had more rushes last year . . . than he did pass attempts.”

Lots of doubts out there about Kain Colter, and whether he has the passing skills to lead our offense, huh?

Except NONE of those quotes from actual articles are about Kain Colter.

Quote 1? It refers to Mike Kafka, prior to the 2009 season.
Quotes 2 and 3? Refer to Dan Persa, prior to the 2010 season.

Look, we all want Persa to play — the man is a phenomenal QB, extremely skilled, a great leader, and a legit Heisman candidate if healthy.

But don’t believe the criticisms/doubts of Colter for a minute…..Mick McCall knows how to develop QBs, and Colter will be MORE than ready.

Northwestern 27 – Boston College 17. Regardless of who Northwestern’s QB is.

by Chadnudj on Sep 2, 2011 11:28 AM CDT reply actions  

WHAT?

That prediction is solid. But, my prediction is based on Persa, and you don’t care who the QB is? Really Chad? I know you are a fan, but come on man. So the most important player on the field will have no impact. Wow. You are a fan for sure.

by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Sep 2, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think...

…Colter is just as capable/will be just as prepared of leading NU to a 27-17 victory in this game as Persa. With a 100% Persa? I’d set the line higher. But he’s not 100% yet, so even if he plays he’ll play limited snaps with Colter splitting some time.

That’s not a slam on Persa, it’s confidence in a capable/talented backup who has been doing a lot of preparing, and the OC McCall who mentors both Persa and Colter.

by Chadnudj on Sep 2, 2011 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm 75 percent here.

but you’ve got to admit there’s still a dropoff. probably.

also, the quotes in your first comment here really threw me for a loop. I yelled out GOT EM when I saw that they were about Kafka/young Persa.

by Rodger Sherman on Sep 2, 2011 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

Got nothing to do, but

you picked NU 31-20 on BC Interruption. What happened to the 4 points ?

Dikaia Upotheke - Justice Our Foundation

by Lord Willie on Sep 2, 2011 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

Looked back at last year...

….we didn’t break 30 terribly often. So I went down a bit on our score, and predicted our defense would be a bit better than on BC Interruption.

by Chadnudj on Sep 2, 2011 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

pretty sure he writes for OTE

and it kinda makes sense to be following BCI, at least for the time being. Doesn’t seem that unreasonable to want a balanced perspective…

by pfoley on Sep 2, 2011 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

I say NU

But in a close game (say 17-14).

In the realm of never-going-to-happen-but-it-would-be-awesome-if-it-did, I think we should trot Persa out for the opening series, run a running play-up the middle to play to out establish the run persona, and then take a shot at the endzone (unless we are pinned against our own endzone or some other rediculousness is going on). We can even run max protect to make sure that Persa gets time and not dinged up, but Persa connecting with Ebert deep and early against a questionalbe secondary has a great upside. After 7, Colter can come and do his thing if we worried about Persa’s health, but that would make me feel a lot better.

by gr_cat on Sep 2, 2011 11:31 AM CDT reply actions  

My Prediction

Herman must have ready my prediction posted to HTP earlier this week because I picked the ’Cats 24-20.

Here are some notes:

- Persa will play but only get ~30% of snaps.

- Colter will be alright and will look much better passing than last year (when he was suffering the after effects of that throwing arm injury and had almost zero time running the offense; he was even transitioning to WR before Persa went down).

- NU’s D will look night and day better than they did in those final 3 games (it helps that BC doesn’t have its best offensive weapon and they are generally not a good offense).

- NU has a great chance of having success passing given that now 3 of BCs starting DBs from the start of camp won’t be there tomorrow (well 2 definitely won’t, 1 probably won’t). Also, BC didn’t generate much of a pass rush last year and they lost some D linemen, and if they blitz that will leave even less help for the depleted secondary.

- Given all that, this will still likely be a close game, and special teams are pretty even between these two squads outside of Venric Mark – hopefully he can make something happen in the return game to tilt the game in NU’s favor.

--
JHodges
HailToPurple

by jhodges on Sep 2, 2011 11:40 AM CDT reply actions  

if we're going to be real

I wrote my prediction and had 24-20, then saw Herman had it too and realized I had to change it.

by Rodger Sherman on Sep 2, 2011 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

3 out of 4 experts agree

that Trident sugarless gum is awesome.

I honestly see this game being very similar to the Vandy opener last year on the road. I think we’ll start off fast, stall a bit around the middle, get our mojo back in the second half, stave off a late BC rally, and then get a generous unnecessary roughness penalty to end the game.

by Herman on Sep 2, 2011 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

I have no idea what will happen in this one.

I don’t think that anything in tomorrow’s game would surprise me. That said, I have a strange confidence in NU despite Persa being listed as questionable. It’s based on absolutely nothing other than an irrational gut feeling, but it’s confidence nonetheless.

by WestsideBrandon on Sep 2, 2011 3:21 PM CDT reply actions  

This iPhone app is good

I’m going to predict awkward week one struggles for both teams.

NU wins 13 – 10 on a Budzien FG late.

by Glopknar on Sep 2, 2011 3:32 PM CDT via iPhone app reply actions  

Quote from USA Today

Persa continues to make his way back from a ruptured Achilles and is expected to miss Saturday’s game against Boston College

by EagleAboveTheRim on Sep 2, 2011 4:01 PM CDT reply actions  

shit

the baghdad times lists persa as out of the season

by Loretta8 on Sep 2, 2011 4:21 PM CDT reply actions   2 recs

17-14 'Cats

Persa will get 25% of snaps. It’s Colter’s world, and we’re paying rent.

But the big story is that both offenses will struggle tomorrow. The pleasant surprise is that our defense will actually play defense.

www.massivecreativity.com

by macarthur31 on Sep 2, 2011 5:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Sigh ...

Not going to change my earlier prediction that BC will win this game. Wish it were our second game, after EIU, instead of the first one.

BC 23 – NU 16

Hope I’m wrong.

Does anyone know who the broadcasters are for the game on ESPNU? Please tell me that this will be a Pam Ward-free zone?

by RotoJeff on Sep 2, 2011 7:33 PM CDT reply actions  

You're safe from Pammy.

We’re on tap for Rob Stone and Danny Kanell, sez Awful Announcing.

Jonathan Herrera: Staving off regression to the mean since 2010!

by Foxhole Atheist on Sep 2, 2011 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sweet

I like Rob Stone, though usually he’s in the third chair role.

by RotoJeff on Sep 3, 2011 12:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Man. I picked this as a win?

Shit. I’m really having a hard time feeling good about our run defense and QB play, but I haven’t heard all that much positive about BC (mostly because I’ve had my hands over my ears). I honestly have no clue what to do here. So I’ll stick with my earlier thread prediction:

NU 27, BC 23.

by MNWildcat on Sep 3, 2011 1:01 AM CDT reply actions  

Ignorance of the law

Is not a remission if guilt, ser. That said no one really knows anything about either of these teams so you’re probably as reasonable as any one else

by pfoley on Sep 3, 2011 8:34 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

ESPN Gameday

Just reported that Persa would not suit up. I suppose I’m just an optimist, but I think Kain Colter comes up big.

by buckyor on Sep 3, 2011 9:22 AM CDT reply actions  

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