Wisconsin 77, Northwestern 57
by Loretta8 on Jan 19, 2012 10:16 AM CST
in 2011-12 Northwestern Wildcats Basketball
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PrintRather than the immediate #BEATEMDOWN from the beginning of the game, as has been the standard for Northwestern against Wisconsin of late, this game was competitive for about 25 minutes before Wisconsin unleashed the #BEATEMDOWN thanks to a barrage of three pointers and won going away.
Wisconsin's second half run coincided with Bill Carmody switching to the 1-3-1 defense, likely in an attempt to give the Badgers a new look. After all, NU's man to man hadn't been particularly effective. However, Wisconsin is about the last team to use the 1-3-1 against: they are always among the national leaders in not turning the ball over, they have a smart senior point guard in Jordan Taylor, and they surround Taylor with several dangerous three point shooters. So unsurprisingly, Wisconsin hit four threes in four possessions against the 1-3-1 to put the game out of reach.
But I would be remiss to put the blame for the loss on Bill Carmody. Wisconsin deserves much of the credit for an excellent shooting performance and for showing why their defense is ranked #2 nationally by KenPom.com. Bo Ryan's team doesn't have great length or athleticism, but they are extremely well coached and do an outstanding job of taking away the two highest efficiency shots in basketball: the lay-up and the three pointer. They forced Northwestern to beat them by taking contested mid-range shots, and NU was able to make some very tough shots in the first half but unable to carry it over to the second half. It also didn't help that NU had basically no bench thanks to the injuries to JerShon Cobb and Alex Marcotullio. Combine that with Davide Curletti regressing to the mean and you get a lopsided loss.
John Shurna and Drew Crawford were their usual solid selves, scoring 19 and 17 points respectively, but didn't get enough help. Dave Sobolewski looked like a freshman last night, making several great plays but also making several poor decisions, be it forced threes early in the shot clock or turnovers caused by trying to go one on three in transition. Sobolewski's future is very bright but there are going to be growing pains along the way.
Reggie Hearn chipped in with 11 points and did a decent job on Jordan Taylor in the first half, while Nick Fruendt provided energy off the bench and managed not to be a huge liability on either end, which is really all you can ask from Fruendt at this point. NU really needs to get either Cobb or Marcotullio back soon though, seven available scholarship players is a recipe for disaster in Big Ten play.
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by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
My thoughts.
Full disclosure, did not watch the game but heard it on XM radio up until the 5:20 mark in the 2nd half.
As you all know I ‘chunk’ the season and try not to overreact to one game, so I went into this two game road trip hoping for a 1-1 split. As you saw in the prediction section, I thought UW would win, but the more I thought about it, the less confident I was.
After the first half, I really thought NU would win. Then, the 2nd half came. While it was a tough loss, NU truly only had six of its normal eight rotation players, coming off an emotional high of beating MSU, on the road, playing against a team that does very well against NU, etc, so with all those reasons/excuses, I don’t want kill this team for the loss.
But……let’s not just chalk this upto ‘Wisconsin got hot.’ This seems to happen a lot against NU, and to be honest if NU had won with UW going 3-18 from three, then we would be lauding our defense. I know UW hit some hard contested shots, but they did and should not be just attributed to ‘getting hot’ or ‘being lucky.’
I’m a LITTLE bit concerened that the 1-3-1 is just not an effective defense against top tier Big Ten teams, but then again, NU utilized it against MSU with effective results.
Bottom line, NU had a chance to get to the magic .500 number and again they failed. I hope this upcoming run of some easier games lets NU get to .500 or heck, even above .500.
In terms of this upcoming game at Minnesota, there are some other hurdles to consider.
- UM has had the full week off (“prepare for NU”).
- On a three game win streak in the Big Ten.
- ‘Revenge’ for beating them two times at the end of last season
I’m not worried, b/c I still feel our defense has improved. But, losing by 20 points made me start to question if the MSU win was the classic random win that means nothing in the long run.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 10:34 AM CST reply actions
opponent 3 point shooting is extremely high variance
over one game samples. Wisconsin hit 3 for 28 vs Iowa on threes, and Iowa has largely struggled to defend threes all season. NU’s 3 point defense overall was poor though.
i forgot to mention this in the recap, but it makes the michigan loss all the more frustrating, since michigan missed a lot of good looks that they’d normally make and NU still wasnt able to take advantage.
One game samples in general is hard to judge from...
…I’m a HUGE fan of the improved defense I saw these last couple of games, and while UW did have a great night against NU, I’m still impressed with what I’ve seen/heard.
Yes, thank you for saying that, it makes a loss when a team is below their average even more aggrevating.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
Also, this is to Loretta 8
Why do fans, coaches, media, and NCAA committee value (and maybe overvalue) conference record/standings?
Last night could be an example of why, when you play a certain team over and over, it becomes less about gimmicky offenses/defenses and rather about execution and adjustments. When NU went to a 1-3-1, Bo Ryan IMMEDIATELY made adjustments and the teams nailed the threes. I’m not saying just b/c the 1-3-1 was played threes were made, but rather, a team/coach doesn’t panic when it sees a defense.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
then why arent conference tournament games added onto those records?
when i see conference records, i only see the scheduled regular season games, not the conference tournament games or the occasional intra-conference matchup in non-conference play.
both teams are equally familiar with each other in conference games, no one is getting any sort of edge from it.
Huh?
Come on L8. I don’t know why conference tournament wins/losses aren’t included in the season totals like regular season conference games. They are discussed often as a sign of final momentum/playing ability for the selection committee. But, what does that have to do with the point of conference games are more important than non-conf games?
Also, by occasional intra-conference matchups in non-conf play. That is sooooooooo damn rare, it happens in random pre-season or post-season tournaments, but not a regular thing, so to me that is the exception not even an ‘occasional’.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 11:51 AM CST up reply actions
you really dont see what that has to do with the argument?
yes, fans care more about conference games and beating other teams in the conference because of the familiarity and the rivalries that build up. in terms of recruiting and fan happiness, the conference games are more important.
but no, beating the #15 team in the country is no more or less of an accomplishment if that team is in your conference. it would be stupid if the selection committee thought that way, and thankfully they dont.
Here we go.
Ok, are you telling me that the selection committee does NOT value the conference record/standing more than nonconf? If you are, you are dead on wrong.
A win against #15 team in late November is NOT equal to a win against #15 in conference in late February. Come on L8, you follow bball religiously and you know this. The committee favors more recent play than earlier play, the committee favors conference wins/losses more.
I don’t even know why you think this, every year whether it is Bilas, Lunardi, Katz, Glockner, they discuss and emphasize conference play on an EXTREMELY high level.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
recent play vs earlier play
is a factor
this has nothing to do with conference vs non-conference, correlation =/= causation. when teams get marquee non-conference wins late in the season, those count too (see: bracketbusters in late february). it just happens that conference play generally comes after non-conference play.
Ok
Agree on recent vs earlier.
I agree w/you that wins vs Top 50 and Top 100 RPI are MAJOR factors for the committee, no debate there, but you are acting like conference record/standing is an arbitrary grouping of teams. That is not the case, look at what the committee says and analysts point to, conference record & standing. How do you play against teams that prepare for you in a home and away setting? One of the more recent trends is factoring in road conference wins. Look at a recent article by Bilas, Katz, or anyone and they discuss this in depth.
Also, not to subject everyone to a mindless debate, feel free to shoot me an e-mail and we can discuss offline.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 2:12 PM CST up reply actions
I am wrong and apologize.
L8, I was telling a friend about our debate, and he informed me that I’m wrong. I did some further research, and the NCAA selection committee now does NOT factor in conference record and/or standing. Rather, they factor the season as a whole.
So, you are correct.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 20, 2012 8:07 AM CST up reply actions
the worst part of seven players
is luka has to play extended minutes.
by Rodger Sherman on Jan 19, 2012 12:00 PM CST reply actions
Amazing how Curletti and Mirkovic have completely swapped...
…the number of minutes they play, the amount of fan love, and the potential upside of them (as seniors).
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
Wow.
I think you are a member of a small fan club. I do think the Mirk bashing is sometimes too much.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions
Don't get me wrong.
He’s pretty bad to the point that he shouldn’t be playing much, even for us.
But what can you do? I’m not going to hate him for being immobile or whatever. If anything, I wish he’d bring back the heart he showed last year. It was over-the-top to the point of being comical: the pounding the chest, the insane gesturing to refs, the Luka-3 AT INDIANA… It just seems like there’s less fire there this year.
Where has Luka gone?
I’m not a Luka fan by a long shot. But what has happened to him is as much a reflection on coaching as it is on him.
There’s absolutely nothing there. His game hasn’t improved. He lost what little 3-pt shot he had. He has no confidence and even less enthusiasm.
Obviously he holds a share of the responsibility for this. But I sure as hell hope the coaching staff is asking itself “what happened” and looking at itself in the mirror.
I hope the kid can find a little something for the stretch run of his career. I also hope the coaching staff can lead him to water – maybe even a small puddle … just a little somethin’.
I couldn't agree more
It also raises the question of what work, if any, they did with him in the off-season. We were promised a more buff, more agile Luka, but he has regressed as badly as any player I’ve ever seen.
Great points
Luka hasn’t improved (either bad on his part or bad on coaching staff), has lost confidence (combo of everything), looks disinterested (b/c I think him being a villian was not appreciated by others), and just got beat by a guy that is marginally better than him.
Ohh well.
by NU Alumni - Class of 2002 on Jan 19, 2012 4:17 PM CST up reply actions
regression is the right word.
he used to not be a liability.
by Rodger Sherman on Jan 19, 2012 4:27 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know what it is
but how high was the ceiling, honestly?
I’m upset more just because it seems like we lost a personality and character who regressed (as Rodger said) from mediocre to worthless, less because he went “uncoached” or whatever may be.
Even with that possibly missing coaching, was there a ton more that could be squeezed out of Luka? I’m curious what others think.
A ton? No
But I was never looking for that out of Luka. (Well, maybe at one point, but that’s long gone.)
What was Luka’s max? Probably a guy who could play some reasonable defense, knock down a couple threes to open things up and make a bunch of put backs.
But that’s not what I’m talking about at this point. He’s playing like a scared freshman. He looks absolutely freaked out when he touches the ball. His first move is to look behind him or away from the basket. And his defense … well, ya know.
I’m not talking about games that might get him a mention as B10 honorable mention. I’m talking about a minor measure of reasonable productivity at this point. He’s barely a 10 mpg-guy, and that’s a real lost opportunity.
I hope he’s not getting the “he’s a senior, he needs to figure it out” treatment because it’s obvious he’s a long ways from that.
Sure.
I agree on that I hope he’s not getting that treatment, and I don’t really think he is—he seems like he’s got a coach in his ear when he gets off the floor the few times he actually gets on it now.
As far as what we’re “missing”, I really think that all we ever lost was a little bit of defense with Luka. As far as a post move, an open 3, and some put backs, we saw some of that last year. It all kinda went away this year, and we never found the defense.
What NU is missing from him
Think how many more points NU could have gotten from him if he didn’t try to handle the ball on the floor after EVERY rebound. That should have been out of his game after his freshman year. I’d bet that would have been worth a minimum of a basket per game.
I’ll stop the loss list right there. It’s just too bad.
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